Everyone claims something different
Mario’s running to the right and Nintendo’s running to the bank. After one day on the market, Super Mario Run is being crowned an unequivocal success. However, nobody’s really sure exactly how successful it is.
The one fact about Super Mario Run that no one’s debating is that it was the most downloaded game on the iOS store in the United States yesterday. And, it was the most downloaded game in upward of 79 other countries, too. It’s when we try to look at these statistics with a fine-toothed comb that things get more uncertain.
Several outlets are leaning on app-reporting firms for an analysis of Super Mario Run‘s first day numbers. The Verge used Apptopia to claim 2.85 million downloads in the US yesterday. Polygon, who is in the same family of sites as The Verge, used App Annie to assert 3.5 million US downloads, 10 million globally, and $4 million in revenue. Variety and Venture Beat depended on Sensor Tower to come to 5 million US downloads and $5 million in revenue. GamesIndustry International was seemingly not comfortable reporting any concrete numbers before updating its story to use the safest data: 2.85 million downloads, which is the lowest estimate.
The point is that none of these app-analysis agencies have anything more than a hunch. GameSpot recently ran a story where it reported on SuperData’s projection that Super Mario Run would bring in $60 million in revenue in its first month; it updated that article today to alter the prediction to $12-15 million, just a fraction of the original prediction.
Super Mario Run is Nintendo’s most serious foray in the mobile market to date, and it’ll almost certainly prove to be a successful one. But, we won’t know how successful until Nintendo tells us directly at its next shareholders’ meeting.