Pachter: PS3 will overtake Xbox 360 … in 2015

The PlayStation 3 may will be chugging away in third place, but that hasn’t stopped industry analyst Michael Pachter from declaring that Sony’s black box o’ Blu-ray will overtake Microsoft’s beige box o’ breaking-all-the-time.

“We think that the PS3 will capture significant market share, primarily due to Sony’s victory in the high definition DVD format war, and will end up in second place by 2015,” offers the professional guesser. “Although Microsoft’s Xbox 360 enjoyed a first mover advantage, we think that its market position will fade to third place due to lack of penetration in Japan. We expect the Wii to capture 49% share of the U.S. and European market by the end of 2009, followed by the Xbox 360 at 29% and the PS3 at 22%.”

“By the end of 2011 (the extent of our current forecast), we see Nintendo ‘winning’ the console war by maintaining its share, with 48% of this market. We expect Sony to pull even with Microsoft, each with 26% market share. Notwithstanding the projected finish, we truly believe that all three manufacturers should be considered ‘winners’, with Microsoft selling twice as many Xbox 360s as Xboxes and building a robust Xbox Live business, and with the other two companies generating significant profits from their respective shares.”

As you can see, Pachter is pretty much treating this console war like an elementary school fun run, where everybody’s a winner just for taking part. Still, Sony must be thrilled to hear that in six years time, it might crawl its way to second place!

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James Stephanie Sterling
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