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@Tris
This is not my argument! There is no argument! There is no one in, or close to, the industry that is going to tell you that the market is not contracting. No one. It is accepted fact.
I feel like I'm arguing that the sky is blue, here. I don't understand how some of the biggest news in the last 6 months just flies completely under the radar of so many people.
This is not my argument! There is no argument! There is no one in, or close to, the industry that is going to tell you that the market is not contracting. No one. It is accepted fact.
I feel like I'm arguing that the sky is blue, here. I don't understand how some of the biggest news in the last 6 months just flies completely under the radar of so many people.
hes an idiot and ever since spore flopped hes been a fucking negative piece of shit.
(yeah I said it)
(yeah I said it)
Why is this newsworthy someone said consoles are running scared last month the pc market was about to crashed next month mobile gaming will suddenly not be sustainable because some random dickhead made a random remark.
They already have small, nearly free game offerings on consoles. They don't need a drastic change at all.
@Alan
Yeah i suppose you are right in some respects, the thing is that there isnt a really service (such as NPD) that tracks digital sales. I think it would be interesting to see how those types of figures stack up compared to the retail space.
That all said just making the assumption that digital is dominating (based on the lack of a dataset) is just foolhardy at best.
My ever growing personal steam gaming collection shows me personally that digital has legs but to directly correlate that to a decline in retail sales with no full spectrum data on the digital side is not good analysis.
I feel as a personal opinion that the consoles fail in the digital space on the bullet point of value. Charging someone 59.99 for the digital copy of game alongside a 59.99 retail release is not a good value for the consumer. I have a feeling that in the grander scheme, the console manufacturers need to appease the retail space in order to get shelf space. That relationship with retail while helpful, could also be harming console's digital process as well.
It's a complicated problem that the console guys have and I'm glad that I'm not in charge of those decisions for any of the big 3. This coming generation IMHO will be a pivotal moment for all 3 major console manufacturers and I think the gaming divisions of MS and Sony have a lot riding on what is coming next.
As an added note (even though it wasn't directed at me) I do actually read gamasutra everyday and I know these Doom and Gloom stories run on that site constantly.
Yeah i suppose you are right in some respects, the thing is that there isnt a really service (such as NPD) that tracks digital sales. I think it would be interesting to see how those types of figures stack up compared to the retail space.
That all said just making the assumption that digital is dominating (based on the lack of a dataset) is just foolhardy at best.
My ever growing personal steam gaming collection shows me personally that digital has legs but to directly correlate that to a decline in retail sales with no full spectrum data on the digital side is not good analysis.
I feel as a personal opinion that the consoles fail in the digital space on the bullet point of value. Charging someone 59.99 for the digital copy of game alongside a 59.99 retail release is not a good value for the consumer. I have a feeling that in the grander scheme, the console manufacturers need to appease the retail space in order to get shelf space. That relationship with retail while helpful, could also be harming console's digital process as well.
It's a complicated problem that the console guys have and I'm glad that I'm not in charge of those decisions for any of the big 3. This coming generation IMHO will be a pivotal moment for all 3 major console manufacturers and I think the gaming divisions of MS and Sony have a lot riding on what is coming next.
As an added note (even though it wasn't directed at me) I do actually read gamasutra everyday and I know these Doom and Gloom stories run on that site constantly.
@Tris
What unnamed authority? This is something being talked about pretty consistently.
http://www.gamasutra.com/view/news/170237/Annual_US_game_retail_could_hit_sixyear_low_in_2012.php
http://www.gamasutra.com/view/news/170406/As_the_middle_market_falls_out_game_retail_collapses.php
http://www.wired.com/gamelife/2012/04/opinion-kohler-video-expensive/
http://www.gamasutra.com/view/news/170464/Could_digital_sales_also_be_contracting.php
Those are the only ones I have bookmarked on this computer, (I thought I had the FRD collapse articles on this one, but I guess I don't).
Also, for reference, EA's total operating costs were $1.4 billion in 06, and 2.4 billion in '11. If the market continues as it is this year, we'll be on pace to match 06's numbers.
What unnamed authority? This is something being talked about pretty consistently.
http://www.gamasutra.com/view/news/170237/Annual_US_game_retail_could_hit_sixyear_low_in_2012.php
http://www.gamasutra.com/view/news/170406/As_the_middle_market_falls_out_game_retail_collapses.php
http://www.wired.com/gamelife/2012/04/opinion-kohler-video-expensive/
http://www.gamasutra.com/view/news/170464/Could_digital_sales_also_be_contracting.php
Those are the only ones I have bookmarked on this computer, (I thought I had the FRD collapse articles on this one, but I guess I don't).
Also, for reference, EA's total operating costs were $1.4 billion in 06, and 2.4 billion in '11. If the market continues as it is this year, we'll be on pace to match 06's numbers.
@Alan Argentina
"Not even the publishers themselves are using the arguments you guys are in their defense, doesn't that say something?"
These companies have their own set of problems and are using the "market is shrinking" reasoning as a shield. They would never admit that the reason they sell less games (and consequently publish even less games) is because of decisions they made themselves. It HAS to be environmental; it HAS to be an outside factor; it HAS to be something OTHER than themselves.
The fact is that these big publishers take less risks and made a lot of anti-consumer, abusing actions that limited their appeal, gaining less rewards as a result, but they'll be damned if they manned up to those decisions. "Not OUR fault; the MARKET is shrinking!" ...so I guess it's OUR fault?
The gaming market is 3 decades old and you're basing trends in just 4 years. Wait until the next hardware cycle, then compare it's first year with the first of previous generations and let me know how that goes.
"Not even the publishers themselves are using the arguments you guys are in their defense, doesn't that say something?"
These companies have their own set of problems and are using the "market is shrinking" reasoning as a shield. They would never admit that the reason they sell less games (and consequently publish even less games) is because of decisions they made themselves. It HAS to be environmental; it HAS to be an outside factor; it HAS to be something OTHER than themselves.
The fact is that these big publishers take less risks and made a lot of anti-consumer, abusing actions that limited their appeal, gaining less rewards as a result, but they'll be damned if they manned up to those decisions. "Not OUR fault; the MARKET is shrinking!" ...so I guess it's OUR fault?
The gaming market is 3 decades old and you're basing trends in just 4 years. Wait until the next hardware cycle, then compare it's first year with the first of previous generations and let me know how that goes.
In order:
1) 6 year low in 2012... 6 years since the Wii came out. Huge surprise there.
2) Some blogger.
3) That wired.com guy is probably right, actually. Nothing he's saying is damning to the industry like you, though. In fact, he directly refutes you and says EXACTLY what I said about a third of the way down the page, hilariously enough.
"Yes, sales of new packaged software did drop after 2008, which is probably what Browne is referring to when he conveniently marks that very moment in time as being “when used game trade-ins became the new standard a few years ago,” not providing any evidence to back up that spurious claim.
What happened in 2008? Well, the Wii started to drop off in popularity precipitously, after inflating the numbers for a few years by selling more than any other game platform had ever managed."
Gotta love when the person you're debunking posts exactly the point you've been making in an attempt to argue. Thanks for that.
4) http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Betteridge%27s_Law_of_Headlines
1) 6 year low in 2012... 6 years since the Wii came out. Huge surprise there.
2) Some blogger.
3) That wired.com guy is probably right, actually. Nothing he's saying is damning to the industry like you, though. In fact, he directly refutes you and says EXACTLY what I said about a third of the way down the page, hilariously enough.
"Yes, sales of new packaged software did drop after 2008, which is probably what Browne is referring to when he conveniently marks that very moment in time as being “when used game trade-ins became the new standard a few years ago,” not providing any evidence to back up that spurious claim.
What happened in 2008? Well, the Wii started to drop off in popularity precipitously, after inflating the numbers for a few years by selling more than any other game platform had ever managed."
Gotta love when the person you're debunking posts exactly the point you've been making in an attempt to argue. Thanks for that.
4) http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Betteridge%27s_Law_of_Headlines
Lemme clean that link up. Here we go...
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Betteridge%27s_Law_of_Headlines
Also to add a conclusion to the above, if you're going to appeal to authority, you have to appeal to a valid one that actually agrees with you and has credibility. None of the above qualify, and one even agrees with me.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Betteridge%27s_Law_of_Headlines
Also to add a conclusion to the above, if you're going to appeal to authority, you have to appeal to a valid one that actually agrees with you and has credibility. None of the above qualify, and one even agrees with me.
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2008 was when unemployment skyrocketed. So no wonder that game software sales fell in 2009 forward. The highest point in that graph is January 2010. The current unemployment rate is getting to 2008 levels slowly but surely.
2008 was when unemployment skyrocketed. So no wonder that game software sales fell in 2009 forward. The highest point in that graph is January 2010. The current unemployment rate is getting to 2008 levels slowly but surely.
Also an interesting point, @myherozero. Not sexy and fearmongering though, but factual and relevant, so I guess that'll do. ;)
@myherozero
Wait, so you're saying the amount of product purchased in a market was directly affected by the purchasing capacity of the consumers in that market?
So much for "recession-proof", eh?
Wait, so you're saying the amount of product purchased in a market was directly affected by the purchasing capacity of the consumers in that market?
So much for "recession-proof", eh?
@Sailorjeff
Yeah, the est. digital numbers are there, but there's definitely room for improvement (which is something I'm pretty sure they've been working on recently, I can't remember where I read that). Those est. numbers are great, though. On par with retail, and set to overtake retail fairly soon.
This is everything, though. DLC, subscriptions, iPhone games, Facebook, etc etc. This is kinda the point of the article though, the traditional models are failing, and even though the big boys are trying to get into the digital game as much as they can, they're all being outpaced.
As has been said a bunch of times all over the place (including Jim and Johnathan Holmes talking about it on a recent podtoid), the next generation is going to have to find a way to cut costs. I think Sony's purchase of Gaikai was a great move in this regard, and if those leaked NextBox specs are anything near the truth, then that should be cheaper as well. Here's to hoping.
@El Conrado
I agree with you! It is definitely not our fault, the demand for gaming in general is still high, and growing.
What I'm saying is that these publishers aren't trying to say the market isn't contracting, they're saying it's contracting and doing exactly as you've said: blaming everyone but themselves. They admit the market is contracting, but they blame it on used games, piracy, a consumer base that doesn't know what it wants, all that stupid boogieman shit.
It's like I said, gaming is still growing though. People are spending more money on gaming now than they have ever been. This is what Will Wright is saying; he's saying that the big boy publishers are floundering while all these alternative methods are growing, and doing so without spending billions in advertising.
Yeah, the est. digital numbers are there, but there's definitely room for improvement (which is something I'm pretty sure they've been working on recently, I can't remember where I read that). Those est. numbers are great, though. On par with retail, and set to overtake retail fairly soon.
This is everything, though. DLC, subscriptions, iPhone games, Facebook, etc etc. This is kinda the point of the article though, the traditional models are failing, and even though the big boys are trying to get into the digital game as much as they can, they're all being outpaced.
As has been said a bunch of times all over the place (including Jim and Johnathan Holmes talking about it on a recent podtoid), the next generation is going to have to find a way to cut costs. I think Sony's purchase of Gaikai was a great move in this regard, and if those leaked NextBox specs are anything near the truth, then that should be cheaper as well. Here's to hoping.
@El Conrado
I agree with you! It is definitely not our fault, the demand for gaming in general is still high, and growing.
What I'm saying is that these publishers aren't trying to say the market isn't contracting, they're saying it's contracting and doing exactly as you've said: blaming everyone but themselves. They admit the market is contracting, but they blame it on used games, piracy, a consumer base that doesn't know what it wants, all that stupid boogieman shit.
It's like I said, gaming is still growing though. People are spending more money on gaming now than they have ever been. This is what Will Wright is saying; he's saying that the big boy publishers are floundering while all these alternative methods are growing, and doing so without spending billions in advertising.
Absolutely. They fucked themselves over this time around. The new consoles are going to need to do stuff very differently.
@Alan
Yeah I agree that the Gaikai purchase is a very interesting one by Sony. I'm hoping that they will be able to leverage it effectively.
Yeah I agree that the Gaikai purchase is a very interesting one by Sony. I'm hoping that they will be able to leverage it effectively.
WHO CARES, buy what you want shit on everything else. Word to chart man, stop wasting your time on here and go get paid for your knowledge. Vidjya Games guys
Oh, look. It's THIS argument again. We haven't had one of these since, what? Last Thursday?
Wake me when one side or the other wins. Judging by the way it's going, I might be awake by 2057.
Wake me when one side or the other wins. Judging by the way it's going, I might be awake by 2057.
The major difference being that I always pay some amount of money for 'traditional' games while I've never even spent one dime in any 'free-to-play' games.
I'm not knocking free-to-plays mind you...I'm just not spending money on them.*shrug*
I'm not knocking free-to-plays mind you...I'm just not spending money on them.*shrug*
@Tristrix
You'd make a great politician, man, but the fact remains that there isn't anyone talking about how the market isn't contracting. The retail woes of the industry are well documented, and they go well beyond the slumping Wii sales.
We're at pace to do 06 sales numbers, and spending is well beyond what it was in 06. If you'd like me to pull up the annual reports to prove this, I will. Year to date April, there was ~25% less games released than the year before, according to the NPD. When you are making less games, making less money on games, and your costs aren't cut to reflect that, you get a contraction.
They're making up the difference in digital services. Again, I'll find some of those numbers if you want me to. There's a reason why publishers are pushing DLC and subscription services so heavily, and it's not greed.
You're being contrarian, and I don't understand why. No one in the industry is arguing that we're not seeing a contraction, many of them are just blaming us for it.
You'd make a great politician, man, but the fact remains that there isn't anyone talking about how the market isn't contracting. The retail woes of the industry are well documented, and they go well beyond the slumping Wii sales.
We're at pace to do 06 sales numbers, and spending is well beyond what it was in 06. If you'd like me to pull up the annual reports to prove this, I will. Year to date April, there was ~25% less games released than the year before, according to the NPD. When you are making less games, making less money on games, and your costs aren't cut to reflect that, you get a contraction.
They're making up the difference in digital services. Again, I'll find some of those numbers if you want me to. There's a reason why publishers are pushing DLC and subscription services so heavily, and it's not greed.
You're being contrarian, and I don't understand why. No one in the industry is arguing that we're not seeing a contraction, many of them are just blaming us for it.
You're the one being reactionary and fear-mongering and appealing to these non-existent authorities as if everyone agrees with you when no one in this thread has actually done so thus far. I don't think I'm the politician here.
Circuitous argument is circuitous. I think we've said what we had to say.
Circuitous argument is circuitous. I think we've said what we had to say.
@Alan Argentina
Ok, yeah, I can see that point. I just think it's a bit premature to declare the console, well, dead. It needs to die first.
As for Gaikai, well, I get mixed feelings.
It makes business sense, and I'm a big believer in cloud processing, but on the other hand, as a consumer not in the United States, Canada, Mexico, Europe or Japan, I know where this is going, and I don't like it.
Right now, I can buy any game on any console and take it with me globe trotting and so long the power line isn't something weird it works, but guess what I CAN'T do if I'm not in the United States? 90% of everything digital.
If it's only offered online, 9 out of 10 times I can't get/buy/download/watch/hear it thanks to international licensing deals signed before the internet existed.
OnLive won't even let me signup, despite me reaching and surpassing their bandwidth and ping requirements. Why? I'm not in the US.
Amazon Prime includes Instant Video? Not to me! Can't even download MP3s.
iTunes is available, with 30% of the content. Only recently they added AppleTV offerings, and only in a very limited selection.
NetFlix opened in 70 markets? Great, with a quarter of the content.
The kicker? Xbox Live. Guess how many of the "great new content features" am I able to use, other than the gimped versions of Crackle and NetFlix? 'Cmon, take a shot.
So, a bug, mainstream company like Sony potentially embracing Cloud Gaming in their next big console release is not really a prospect I'm getting excited about.
Ok, yeah, I can see that point. I just think it's a bit premature to declare the console, well, dead. It needs to die first.
As for Gaikai, well, I get mixed feelings.
It makes business sense, and I'm a big believer in cloud processing, but on the other hand, as a consumer not in the United States, Canada, Mexico, Europe or Japan, I know where this is going, and I don't like it.
Right now, I can buy any game on any console and take it with me globe trotting and so long the power line isn't something weird it works, but guess what I CAN'T do if I'm not in the United States? 90% of everything digital.
If it's only offered online, 9 out of 10 times I can't get/buy/download/watch/hear it thanks to international licensing deals signed before the internet existed.
OnLive won't even let me signup, despite me reaching and surpassing their bandwidth and ping requirements. Why? I'm not in the US.
Amazon Prime includes Instant Video? Not to me! Can't even download MP3s.
iTunes is available, with 30% of the content. Only recently they added AppleTV offerings, and only in a very limited selection.
NetFlix opened in 70 markets? Great, with a quarter of the content.
The kicker? Xbox Live. Guess how many of the "great new content features" am I able to use, other than the gimped versions of Crackle and NetFlix? 'Cmon, take a shot.
So, a bug, mainstream company like Sony potentially embracing Cloud Gaming in their next big console release is not really a prospect I'm getting excited about.
You can say I'm reactionary and "fear mongering" all you'd like, Tris. The evidence backs me on this one, not because it's my argument, but because it's a topic that has been discussed for a long time by people much smarter and more connected than you and I.
You disagree with a lot of people on a lot of things, but you're disagreeing with something that is established fact, and something many people in the industry are actively working to fix.
You disagree with a lot of people on a lot of things, but you're disagreeing with something that is established fact, and something many people in the industry are actively working to fix.
More people are getting their gaming fix by buying games on sale, Steam deals, etc. That affects overall profit to sell games for something other than 60 dollars a pop, but it reaches a broader audience.
This is only a good thing for the industry. It drives competition, helps indie developers get a chance, keeps big developers from relying so heavily on a 60 dollar per box model and assuming they can sell millions at that price. In the end, it should help keep quality of games higher. I see stabilization as more purchase options are becomign available, not some imminent failure as predicted by a few.
This is only a good thing for the industry. It drives competition, helps indie developers get a chance, keeps big developers from relying so heavily on a 60 dollar per box model and assuming they can sell millions at that price. In the end, it should help keep quality of games higher. I see stabilization as more purchase options are becomign available, not some imminent failure as predicted by a few.
To be honest I still want to make Will Wright a life size cake sculpture of me and then burst out of it. and then we will go on romantic walks talking about what we did in spore and about all the penises on the creature database and Darkspore. and then I will say something not that kind abpuy Darkspore and then he will melt my body and give my organs to his employees and think about the days when he made videogames...
I really like what Soulcage is eluding to a little here as well.
The decline of retail may also be a symptom of the consumer rejection of the 60 dollar model that retail games are following right now. When the "Next Gen" comes into focus, I think that publishers would be hard pressed to raise that price point to 70 or 80 and still maintain similar sales figures to current gen.
I mean there are too many Bethesdas and Jaffes out there saying "Games cost too much but not my games"
I'm hoping that more publishers really embrace the thought that maybe games don't command as high a price as they think.
More so on Jaffe's part. Yeah dude hamstrung SP and a yawnworthy MP Twisted metal.....yeah that's worth 60 bucks....PASS.
The decline of retail may also be a symptom of the consumer rejection of the 60 dollar model that retail games are following right now. When the "Next Gen" comes into focus, I think that publishers would be hard pressed to raise that price point to 70 or 80 and still maintain similar sales figures to current gen.
I mean there are too many Bethesdas and Jaffes out there saying "Games cost too much but not my games"
I'm hoping that more publishers really embrace the thought that maybe games don't command as high a price as they think.
More so on Jaffe's part. Yeah dude hamstrung SP and a yawnworthy MP Twisted metal.....yeah that's worth 60 bucks....PASS.
@Tristrix
What happened in 2008? If I recall, the whole damned world economy blew up thanks to a bunch of greedy billionaires. Since then, jobs have been hard to find and most people with jobs have found their pay getting cut. It should be no surprise to anyone that the videogame industry is losing money. Hmmm, should I feed my family or buy a $60 FPS that I can beat in six hours.
That is what has been missing from all the business commentary, the reality that the economy as a whole is in bad shape.
What happened in 2008? If I recall, the whole damned world economy blew up thanks to a bunch of greedy billionaires. Since then, jobs have been hard to find and most people with jobs have found their pay getting cut. It should be no surprise to anyone that the videogame industry is losing money. Hmmm, should I feed my family or buy a $60 FPS that I can beat in six hours.
That is what has been missing from all the business commentary, the reality that the economy as a whole is in bad shape.
@Yogsoggoth:
"What happened in 2008? If I recall, the whole damned world economy blew up thanks to a bunch of greedy billionaires"
This ignorance of the young is astounding. The US economy tanked because people who could never afford home loans were getting home loans, then surprise, couldn't pay them, wrecking the housing market.
Combine that with the Eurozone, proving time and again how Socialism fails throughout history, no exception, and there you have the state of the world.
But it's okay, I'm sure it just tez billionairez under ur bed.
"What happened in 2008? If I recall, the whole damned world economy blew up thanks to a bunch of greedy billionaires"
This ignorance of the young is astounding. The US economy tanked because people who could never afford home loans were getting home loans, then surprise, couldn't pay them, wrecking the housing market.
Combine that with the Eurozone, proving time and again how Socialism fails throughout history, no exception, and there you have the state of the world.
But it's okay, I'm sure it just tez billionairez under ur bed.
Exactly, Yogsoggoth, that too. That's kinda the thing, isn't it? There's a ton of possible factors to why a graph looks the way it does. It could be the end of a console cycle. It could be the economy. It could be market self-correction after a massive bubble caused by the Wii. It could be digital distribution not being factored correctly.
More than likely, it's a combination of ALL those things and a whole lot more. Which is exactly why it's a GIANT non-sequitur to insist that it's some gloom and doom market collapse (bonus points if you make up a snappy title for it like "great gaming contraction").
More than likely, it's a combination of ALL those things and a whole lot more. Which is exactly why it's a GIANT non-sequitur to insist that it's some gloom and doom market collapse (bonus points if you make up a snappy title for it like "great gaming contraction").
Well I have two thoughts.
First is that Will Wright would say this, because his games are usually the perfect model for this sort of thing, specially on the PC. I can't fault him for being behind this train of thought because of that.
Second is that he's completely right about the business models thing, though I don't agree that F2P is the best course, mostly because it doesn't work for all games. A lot of games, sure, but not all.
@Trist
I'm with you there man, every day we read we should hate consoles for one reason or another but I don't, and I don't see myself doing that in any forseeable future, even with the BS that some of these companies are loading the platform down with.
And I agree about everyone who's going to buy into it has done so by now. It just feels like developers are on such a crusade that they have to turn the WHOLE industry into this, or they haven't won at all. Theres room for all types of games out there -BECAUSE THEY'RE GAMES! We don't microtransaction baseball, do we? (See the next 25 pitches for only $20! $10 if your a perfered member!) No, and if someone did, fine, but I doubt EVERY sport would find it their best course of action. One business model doesn't work for EVERYONE, and developers/publishers need to learn that.
I'm with you on "Play good games, Fuck the haters." too
First is that Will Wright would say this, because his games are usually the perfect model for this sort of thing, specially on the PC. I can't fault him for being behind this train of thought because of that.
Second is that he's completely right about the business models thing, though I don't agree that F2P is the best course, mostly because it doesn't work for all games. A lot of games, sure, but not all.
@Trist
I'm with you there man, every day we read we should hate consoles for one reason or another but I don't, and I don't see myself doing that in any forseeable future, even with the BS that some of these companies are loading the platform down with.
And I agree about everyone who's going to buy into it has done so by now. It just feels like developers are on such a crusade that they have to turn the WHOLE industry into this, or they haven't won at all. Theres room for all types of games out there -BECAUSE THEY'RE GAMES! We don't microtransaction baseball, do we? (See the next 25 pitches for only $20! $10 if your a perfered member!) No, and if someone did, fine, but I doubt EVERY sport would find it their best course of action. One business model doesn't work for EVERYONE, and developers/publishers need to learn that.
I'm with you on "Play good games, Fuck the haters." too
A PC guy telling us that the console guys are scared and in trouble. FUCKING SHOCKER!
Maybe next week we can listen to John Carmack and Mark Rein talk about the mobile future they've invested tens of millions of dollars in and how it's gonna be the only platform anyone every plays games on in 2 years.
Maybe next week we can listen to John Carmack and Mark Rein talk about the mobile future they've invested tens of millions of dollars in and how it's gonna be the only platform anyone every plays games on in 2 years.
There's nothing logical about ignoring the fact that spending spikes with sales. The Wii was most definitely not alone in that spike, as much as you guys like to believe it was. Spending rose with the proliferation of the AAA model, not just the Wii, because they target the same kind of market: People who weren't that into gaming before.
Spending hasn't come down, they're still spending as though we are in a boom. They have cut release slates down by a quarter in the last year, and are relying on the DLC sales to make the difference.
Spending is much higher, on fewer games, and less money coming in from those games. Regardless of how you think it happened, a 20% decline in 4 years at the same time spending peaked has caused a contraction.
Spending hasn't come down, they're still spending as though we are in a boom. They have cut release slates down by a quarter in the last year, and are relying on the DLC sales to make the difference.
Spending is much higher, on fewer games, and less money coming in from those games. Regardless of how you think it happened, a 20% decline in 4 years at the same time spending peaked has caused a contraction.
@Alan Argentina
"Spending rose with the proliferation of the AAA model, not just the Wii, because they target the same kind of market: People who weren't that into gaming before."
Aren't you and Tristrix saying the exact same thing with different words?
You are both saying that the Wii created an expansion with it's casual focus which affected the entire industry. It created a bubble. The bubble is deflating now.
Now you both reach different conclusions in the end, but the facts you're both using are the same ones.
"Spending rose with the proliferation of the AAA model, not just the Wii, because they target the same kind of market: People who weren't that into gaming before."
Aren't you and Tristrix saying the exact same thing with different words?
You are both saying that the Wii created an expansion with it's casual focus which affected the entire industry. It created a bubble. The bubble is deflating now.
Now you both reach different conclusions in the end, but the facts you're both using are the same ones.
@El Conrado
Not even sure. At first Tris said he didn't buy into the contraction mumbo jumbo, now he's saying that the numbers could mean anything, and it's a combination of things.
Let me make my stance as clear as I can. I'm not saying the market will all out collapse, I just don't think it even could. The demand is too high, and someone will fill the void in short order.
I'm saying that there has been a definite contraction in the kinds of games most of us hold to the highest standard, as well as hardware. Not just the Wii, even if the Wii had the most to do with it. The reason why everyone and their grandma wants into the F2P party is because it's experiencing growth, whereas typical retail is not.
Everyone spent a lot of money to get profits to peak like they did, this is why you hear people saying things like "short sighted business model". It wasn't an accident, they spent a lot of money and made a lot of money very quickly. Instead of lowering costs on a game to game basis, they just cut new games, and kept the established franchises.
Nowhere do I say there will be a collapse, but there is a definite contraction. The core console business, selling games, is way down in the last few years, regardless of why. The spending hasn't come down, and these alternative models are experiencing growth. The big publishers want into the F2P market as badly as anyone.
Not even sure. At first Tris said he didn't buy into the contraction mumbo jumbo, now he's saying that the numbers could mean anything, and it's a combination of things.
Let me make my stance as clear as I can. I'm not saying the market will all out collapse, I just don't think it even could. The demand is too high, and someone will fill the void in short order.
I'm saying that there has been a definite contraction in the kinds of games most of us hold to the highest standard, as well as hardware. Not just the Wii, even if the Wii had the most to do with it. The reason why everyone and their grandma wants into the F2P party is because it's experiencing growth, whereas typical retail is not.
Everyone spent a lot of money to get profits to peak like they did, this is why you hear people saying things like "short sighted business model". It wasn't an accident, they spent a lot of money and made a lot of money very quickly. Instead of lowering costs on a game to game basis, they just cut new games, and kept the established franchises.
Nowhere do I say there will be a collapse, but there is a definite contraction. The core console business, selling games, is way down in the last few years, regardless of why. The spending hasn't come down, and these alternative models are experiencing growth. The big publishers want into the F2P market as badly as anyone.
@ Argentina
Well, the winnings go down after 2008.. but that's of course not because of the economic crisis and the recession we are in. No. :P
Well, the winnings go down after 2008.. but that's of course not because of the economic crisis and the recession we are in. No. :P
@Cudgeon
Gaming as a whole continues to see incredibly strong growth. People are spending more money on gaming now than they were in 08, they're just spending it differently.
Gaming as a whole continues to see incredibly strong growth. People are spending more money on gaming now than they were in 08, they're just spending it differently.
This console generation fucking sucks and we all know it, right now we need to 1) accept that and 2) figure out how to get the message to publishers.
By the way guys, stop getting so butthurt just because somebody dissed your precious hobby. If it bugs you so bad to hear somebody speak the truth about your sacred cow, go get another one.
With black Ops 2, Halo 4, Dead Space 3, Assassins Creed 3, Madden, Fifa, Far Cry 3, borderlands 2 and a few other titles coming out at the en of the year, i will say without a doubt these will sell like cheap crack in a whore house.
There hasnt been to many big titles out so far this year (well dur most games are released around the start or the end of the year), so this would impact game sales. In saying that next 1-2 years the new PS and Xbox will be release and will outsell everything and break all records to date, the exclusive retail titles for both will sell ridiculously.
Consoles are not dead..............
There hasnt been to many big titles out so far this year (well dur most games are released around the start or the end of the year), so this would impact game sales. In saying that next 1-2 years the new PS and Xbox will be release and will outsell everything and break all records to date, the exclusive retail titles for both will sell ridiculously.
Consoles are not dead..............
@Cody Kings
"By the way guys, stop getting so butthurt just because somebody dissed your precious hobby. If it bugs you so bad to hear somebody speak the truth about your sacred cow, go get another one."
Not gonna happen. Just look at the comments for any article mentioning feminism to have that proven.
"By the way guys, stop getting so butthurt just because somebody dissed your precious hobby. If it bugs you so bad to hear somebody speak the truth about your sacred cow, go get another one."
Not gonna happen. Just look at the comments for any article mentioning feminism to have that proven.
I really don't understand consumer mentality - generalising everything, hooking onto labels and supporting them blindly. I wish people had broader viewpoints and more open mindsets.
I fail to see how lame free to play experiences are replacing sitting in front of one's own TV and enjoying hardcore video games. If you look at Angry Birds... it's a fad, and one that has just about run it's course. Like Tetris before it, in 5 years people will be trying to forget it because of how shallow it was.
Right on... as Im reading this, all I can think of is EA and their Deadspace 3 game needing to sell 5 million to break even. THIS mulitplatinum requirement for AAA games is what's KILLING the AAA (aka mainstream/everyone has heard of it) market. And that is exactly what this article is addressing. Need further proof? Look at EA's own comments rescently... 1st about microtransactions in everything and followed up fast by going digital with everything. Both are ways to either get the gamer to pay more or to get more of what the gamer pays.... and were said officially within weeks of each other. They are panicking!
Consoles are really only mentioned because these are the games that drive their hardware sales. The real guys running scared are the likes of EA, Activision, and Ubisoft.... the giants who rule the AAA era and can see it crumbling right before them... one developer's doors closing at a time.
Consoles are really only mentioned because these are the games that drive their hardware sales. The real guys running scared are the likes of EA, Activision, and Ubisoft.... the giants who rule the AAA era and can see it crumbling right before them... one developer's doors closing at a time.
I dunno. Treating consumers like shit seems to be working pretty well for triple A publishers. I don't see Activision or EA freaking out about other platforms or business models just yet.
Activision, no. They own Blizzard (World of Warcraft) and Call of Duty. If anyone has the position to make it without an ounce of adaptation, it's them.
EA, on the other hand.... well, between SWTOR and the upcoming Deadspace 3 alone.... they have LOTS to lose if they don't adapt to a new business model.
They are not freaking out over F2P. They are freaking out because the old model is crumbling, and trying desperately to adapt what makes F2P work patch it up.
EA, on the other hand.... well, between SWTOR and the upcoming Deadspace 3 alone.... they have LOTS to lose if they don't adapt to a new business model.
They are not freaking out over F2P. They are freaking out because the old model is crumbling, and trying desperately to adapt what makes F2P work patch it up.
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