This month "Free to play, rawr, rawr, Consoles are dead."
Next month "Piracy rawr, rawr, PC is dead again."
Play good games. Fuck the haters.
Now all of a sudden we have to have one thing, everyone has to support that one thing and declare the other one dead.
Really running scared? Tell me that when the sales figures for BLOPS 2 come in. Whether you like COD or not, it really is a supporting force that shows that consoles are far from dead.
On another note:
Personally, I can't stand "Indie" games for the most part.
"Ooooh, look at my abstract concept, aren't I smart?"
I'm not saying there aren't good "Indie" games but like any genre, for every good game there are 15 crap ones, whether you are "indie" or not.
How developers deliver content to me is completely irrelevant now. I used to take part in console wars (Sega for life!) but times have changed. All I care about is that games are fun and engaging.
Would I be sad if console gaming died entirely? Certainly. It's been a massive part of my life for 25 years now... But I love the state gaming is in now. Now more than ever anyone who has the will and drive to make games has more opportunity to do so, with many paths to publishing available.
If consoles do die out, gaming will continue on regardless. Indies and small studios will stay the course because they love games. I will have no love lost for any big company that pulls out of the gaming industry because their business model no longer works.
It's not rhetoric. You don't have to hate the current state of console gaming, but don't act like 4 years of contraction and all its trappings is something to be proud of.
@Startyde
Aaaaaaand Vivendi unloads its majority share of Activision because Activision is a liability.
@Sailorjeff
No, all CoD does is prove that a few games sell really well. Especially when you spend $100 million on advertising.
//
But no, seriously guys. You can keep telling yourself he's wrong, but it's clear as day that big publishers are damn scared of these new business models. You don't have to buy into hyperbole, but don't use that as a justification for completely ignoring the facts.
That's a shame, some of the best games I've played over the past year have been indie.
Binding of Isaac
Terraria
Minecraft
Dustforce
Super Meat Boy
Orcs Must Die!
Dungeon Defenders
Trine
Legend of Grimrock
All fantastic games. All indie.
Well, you could say the same for any industry. If you spend a lot on advertising, you sell more of your product. COD is just an extreme case though. If the current model was not working for developers, they wouldn't use it. It's just that simple.
If the people that champion the "Indie" moniker don't like the console space, that's fine. Like Mr. Wright said, there are plent of other avenues they can go down.
I guess I'm just tired of this whole "We think our way is better, therefore your way must fail." This is an attitude that is pervasive throughout the gaming community, it doesn't help anyone.
Yeah, some of my best memories and experiences over the last 3 years are indie games. It's nice to get something different in a way other than shinier graphics. Though I do like the shiny, too...
I could once again post all those 5 year stock histories on big publishers, but that'd take up a ton of space. Suffice it to say, it ain't pretty.
The market is contracting, whether you choose to accept it or not. Publishers aren't pulling stunt after stunt because they're greedy, they're doing it because they're desperate.
I'm not saying there are no Indie games that I like. I like quite a few of them, many in the list you compiled there.
Don't misunderstand. I'm not going to say ALL Indie games are bad because that is just dumb.
Tiny and Big: Grandpa's leftovers would be a great addition to that list to wouldn't you say?
Console games along with PC will continue to thrive forever, big F2P games will also be profitable to a degree but will never hold a sizable player base (compared to consoles), but rather chew through newbies and have a smaller group of diehard fans.
The problem I have with anyone using CoD as an example is that those "die hard fanboys" of CoD are blind. Honestly, Treyarch and the other company that makes those games have figured that out because they shell out the same, basic game every 6-12 months. The only reason it sells is because of the advertising and the name. If they'd open their eyes, they'd realize they've wasted a good couple hundred dollars to buy the same game they already had, just new maps and guns. Will BLOPS 2 be the same granted they updated the engine and have a new idea? Possibly not, but with their current streak, I wouldn't be surprised to hear an outrage from some of their fans going, "Waaah, you changed too much." As a side note, I'm not saying that CoD is the only franchise to milk the living crap out of itself and its "fans." It's just the only one that gets all the heat because it stayed the same for so many years, while shelling out as many games as possible to make a buck.
Well that is a striking chart but the thing of it is, that isn't proof that the alternative gaming venues are succeeding, it just proof that the retail market is shrinking. It's apparent that the retail space is shrinking but there are so many factors that play into that.
Economic conditions lead to lower amounts of disposable income for many people. That and If I remember correctly, these types of sales figures don't include digital sales.
Just because steam in the most well known, the console space has their own digital distro models which are not being factored in here.
All this chart really shows in the the retail model for game distro is in a deep rut. However, I think we all kind of knew that.
Also for the same months listed the differences in amount are not that stark. As you can easily see, the biggest months are towards the end of the year. If this years Nov and December numbers are much lower than previous years, then I'll be really worried.
Look at the chart you posted are you seriously that dumb? look how similar the 1st 4 months in 2012 are to the rest. That chart says nothing but its already doing better than 2005 and 2006. Come talk to me at the end of the year when that chart will be pretty much the same as the others
Yeah. Not really a whole lot I can say to refute that point.
Yes many people don't like the cookie cutter AAA production model. COD is an example of the ugly side of that, as is EA's sports games like Madden and NCAA.
That said some AAA studios still try to innovate. Ubisoft comes to mind as Assassins creed and Farcry are looking great and try to innovate without radically changing the formula.
Developers walk a very narrow tightrope when it comes to innovation.
I think everyone in the gaming community really has sequel exhaustion right now. I'd be lying if I said I didn't have a little myself. I think that why everyone got so Buzzed about Watchdogs and Beyond, because there is such a glut of sequels right now.
Yeah, I wonder what happened in 2006 that had the market suddenly expand so dramatically...
We're at the end of the current console cycle man; of course the market is contracting.
Are publishers afraid of the market changing? Of course they are but they will always be afraid of change. It goes against their business model.
Will F2P games become the dominant model for gaming? Probably because more casual gamers are coming online everyday but that won't stop consoles because those people were never going to buy a console in the first place. They want to play boring ass repetitive games with little to no interaction that require no thought (angry birds, where's my water, monster wars, etc) and a regular wall that forces them to pay for upgrades. If that's the experience you want from a game then enjoy your banal entertainment and stay out of my game lobby.
Your points would be a completely valid argument against mine if not for one fact: Gaming continues to grow. Factor in all gaming revenue (I can't find a chart for it that's at all recent,), and gaming itself is still seeing pretty decent growth. It's clear that the console market has its feet in quicksand at the moment, so that growth has to be coming from other areas.
Consoles may have some digital distribution channels, they don't have significant ones when it comes to new games. That's where the contraction lies, people are just buying less games. The leading notion as to why the software market is contracting so profoundly is that publishers are releasing less games, and they're doing so because their budgets are fat.
There's real drivers for why we see things like tons of DLC, online passes, shoehorned multiplayer elements, subscription services, etc. These things aren't coming to fruition out of greed, it's the only thing the big boys are making any real cash on.
@Tristrix & El Conrado
It's been the end of a console generation for 4 years? Show me any point in the history of gaming where the market contracted for 4 years. under no circumstance is it healthy. Also, here:
That's just software, no hardware. Since the 2-3rd year of this console generation, software sales have been shrinking. Software, the thing that makes the money in console gaming.
"Annnnnnnd then the newest CoD makes more money than Hollywood combined and ios ppl shut up again."
Point ?
Do you know if that chart strictly represents retail sales as the title may imply? I'm curious if digital sales are included in those revenue figures.
As Tris stated, I wouldn't fully discount the cyclical nature of the console cycle. Though on the other hand, publishers and stake holders are clearly making their bets, as you've stated, with Vivendi looking to sell their 61% stake in Activision/Blizzard, something that would have been previously unthinkable a few years ago. People on the equity side seem to be moving closer to the doors, with publicly traded publishers share prices either in stagnation or decline. Everyone knows new a console means higher costs, when even current costs appear to be unsustainable for a growing number of firms. There is no getting around it, AAA games as we traditionally know them are going to be a much smaller pool until firms learn to contain their costs or grow their revenue in ways that don't infuriate their consumers.
Because grandmas stopped buying Wii Fit.
i always wonder why people need to make statements like this.
are you afraid or something??
"Show me any point in the history of gaming where the market contracted for 4 years."
Show me any point in history where the gaming market had grown twofold in 2 years.
It's to be expected that any unprecedented expansion would eventually deflate before stabilizing.
This. The Wii and its handful of astronomically huge casual-friendly phenomenons were the sort of lightning-in-a-bottle thing we shouldn't expect to see that often, but former-OneRed is holding them up like that's the new baseline and anything less is a catastrophy. The "great gaming contraction." Wow.
Yeah, I don't think a lot of people are buying into that nonsense.
And I've yet to see any game use the F2P model correctly, its always overpriced crap and significant gaps between those who pay and those who don't, so far Star Trek Online is the only game that gives you everything with no strings attached.
Never mind buying the same game again, COD players want MW3 to be more like MW2. They want the MW2 net code to return, MW2 weapon balance to return, and want the MW2 maps to return. To be fair, they want these things because they find MW3 inferior in all those areas (and for good reasons).
The thing is, a large part of COD games is online play. And online play on a very popular game needs continued support. People have said that if IW would update MW2 to deal with hackers, they'd go back to it instead of putting up with MW3's issues. People *have* gone back to MW2 and BLOPS. (Of course Activision/IW have no reason to encourage this exodus, and reason to discourage it as MW3 needs players to buy the rest of its DLC.)
But the main reason you can't use COD as an example of either the industry being healthy *or* as an example of why lots of advertising dolllars sells games is that COD sells on name brand, not quality. COD will dominate with half the advertising budget, and competitors aren't going to win with even double the advertising budget. COD is entrenched in its position until it kills itself, and it could take years and multiple games to do that. BLOPS annoyed some, and MW3 tried to flush the franchise down the toilet, but it will take BLOPS2 or even MW4 failing to really kill the franchise. (Of course once the franchise is truly trashed, it hits a point where even a new good entry fails.)
Digital sales are not included yet, but digital distribution of games on consoles isn't particularly fantastic in the case of games you could buy at retail. Certainly not good enough to explain a 20% drop in 4 years.
The console cycle is not so harsh. Take a look at that sliiiiiiight dip in 2005 when the PS2 was on it's way out. Four years of contraction starting 2-3 years after the start of the current generation is not something that just happens at the end of a console cycle. Not ~20% in 4 years.
@Tris
Yeah, the decline in Wii software sales is among the primary drivers of the contraction, but it's far from the only one. Look at the 5 year stock charts for Activision, Ubisoft, and EA. Their declines did not come on the back of Wii Fit. They're releasing less games as well, something that has severely affected the landscape.
Do you think publishers' costs have come down with the slide in retail sales? If they were, why would they be making less games; why would they have to focus on huge amounts of DLC?
//
Honestly, does no one read any of the more business oriented sites? Gamasutra? GamesIndustry.biz? This is shit that has, and continues to, make news. This is the stuff all those suits are talking about when they talk about having to expand the market. The industry isn't being as cavalier about this as you guys, not even they're making these arguments and they're the ones bleeding out.
No, a ~20% contraction in 4 years is not stabilization. It wasn't just the Wii that drove sales, it was an all out assault on the mainstream market by just about everyone.
Do you really think budgets didn't grow right along with the market?
[/img]http://i60.photobucket.com/albums/h9/nowthinklater/roflEA.jpg[/img]
Do you think those guys are spending less money now than they were? Would they be cutting release slates down to the bone if they were financially stable? They grew the market by spending money. Huge amounts of money.
This is not shit that I just made up myself, this is the shit people in the industry talk about all the time. This is the shit you find in all those long ass interviews, all those numbers break downs, etc. Not even the publishers themselves are using the arguments you guys are in their defense, doesn't that say something?
This, btw, is exactly what i'm talking about when I mention rhetoric.
To the point, you're ignoring your own chart. Look how Activision and Ubisoft both spike in 2008, right alongside the Wii (because bubbles are industry-wide) and then corrected back slightly above pre-2008 levels. You can't scream "DOOOOOOOOOOOM" when things are very clearly just going back to normal.

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