Let’s play the hardware Word Association game. I’ll start: Final Fantasy XII.
I hope you thought PlayStation 3. If kittens or Chewbacca crossed your mind, well, you were doing it wrong.
Other than easing you into the article, there’s something more to this conjuring. FFXIII is coming to the Xbox 360 and PS3 at some point next year. And for many of us, FF has become a staple of our Sony-related collections. There’s an obvious reason for that. When it comes to major console releases, Microsoft’s boxes have only had one FF title. Sony’s have nabbed every major release since FF VII. To say that we’re used to playing FF on a Sony machine is an understatement.
It’s no secret that the Xbox 360 is outperforming the PS3 in the US. NPD numbers have consistently pegged Microsoft as the monthly winner. With FF XIII on the horizon, multi-console owners will have an interesting choice. Will they buy the next big Square-Enix RPG for the junky white console or the sleek black one?
It’s a choice that I haven’t made. Possibly you haven’t either. And for one respected analyst, it’s a choice he can’t predict with confidence yet, especially if platform-exclusive downloadable content is thrown into the mix.
In the US, it’s typical for a multi-platform game to outperform its counterparts on the Xbox 360. It’s tied to market share. I asked the Superman of Analytics, EEDAR analyst Jesse Divnich, for help.
“Ninety percent of multi-platform games will significantly outperform on the Xbox 360 compared to the PS3,” Divinich tells me. “However, there does exist a handful of titles where either the PS3 version outperforms its Xbox 360 counterpart or has a higher attachment rate to their respected hardware install base.”
Street Fighter IV and Devil May Cry 4, Divnich tells me, are examples of properties that have managed to score a higher attachment rate or outperform. These games are published and created by an established studio in Japan and are strongly attached to Sony brand.
Divnich believes hardware demographics come into play when these titles outperform. Apparently, Sony fanatics are much more attached to the Sony brand than Microsoft nuts cling to any first-party or published property.
“I believe the reason has to do with the difference in demographics between the PS3 and 360 install base,” Divnich says. “The core PS3 base seem to have a stronger and more loyal attachment to the Sony brand and are likely consumers who have owned Sony consoles dating back to the original PlayStation.”
Final Fantasy XIII is a strong property from an established Japanese studio. But that doesn’t mean it will sell better for the PS3. Resident Evil 5 comes to mind.
Other things will be in play by the time FF XIII is released. Sony is expected to slash the price of the PS3. That means the player base will increase over the next year. More market share means more potential to fare better, as we’ve learned from those Xbox 360 NPD numbers.
“Which version will sell more in the US,” Divnich asks, echoing my question. “Too close to call right now. I expect the PS3's install base to grow significantly over the next-year, mostly due to deep hardware discounts that are right around the corner, which will help close the PS3/360 gap (but the 360 will remain the dominant console between the two).”
But what will happen if one hardware manufacturer announces platform-exclusive downloadable content? Well, that’s a monkey wrench. And there’s no easy answer.
“We already know that exclusive DLC for one console disproportionately favors the console with the exclusive content. Fallout 3 is a perfect example, with Xbox 360 sales dwarfing the PS3 version. I'd imagine any other type of exclusive content could do the same.”
Divnich didn’t want to pull a prediction out of his bum and we completely understand why he wouldn’t. Predictions are oddly shaped and don’t come out as easy as they go in. That’s a fact. Check it on Wikipedia.
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I still haven’t decided what console I want the game on. I suspect it will come down to the amount of discs or any surprise multiplayer component announcements. Divnich said he’d be buying it for PS3. What will you guys do?
Contest:
5:40 PM on 08.10.2009
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Well, world wide, there is no 360 version.
"deep Hardware discounts"?
PS3 Price Drop confirmed?
And no, I'm not a 360 fanboy or a PS3 hater. I just find PS3 fanboys more iterating then any of the other morons arguing about how their household appliance is better then everyone else'.
If I'm anything I'm a PS3 fanboy hater.
FF Fanboys probably all already bought PS3s, I doubt it will even get a 1/3 of the sales of the Xbox 360
Also, I think another reason Street Fighter IV is selling better on the PS3 is because you don't have to find a controller with a decent fighting d-pad for that console.
Lets face it, FF is a big game, but the concept of achievements is much bigger and more influencial in game sales these days, across home console. Achievement become more of a selling point, than the 360 pad being a hurdle.
What should be interesting is the japanese sales. Its clear that PS3 will win here, due to Square's not releasing the 360 version there, (a big biased slap in the face of japanese 360 owners). However, I bet those same 360 owners will look to import copies.
Otherwise I'd say that the PS3 version will rule in Japan, but it'll be about even in the rest of the world.
1. It feels right. It just feels right to play Final Fantasy on the playstation system.
2. I'd rather just have one disc.
So as of now. I am torn.
It feels right. It just feels right to play Final Fantasy on a Nintendo system.
To swap a disc (a few times), or to wait for installing (a few times, probably. Think MGS 4 but worse.)
It will sell more for PS3. That's my choice for me just because I try to balance out my collections for my PS3 and 360. Although in general I get my multi plats on 360 now.
The FF series has never returned to Nintendo formats in the same way (ie dumbed down SD cheese), ever since Square bailed for Sony's camp, and while Sony formats meet Squares technical needs, I've always been aware that the series could move elsewhere, as it also grace the PC over the years.
360 FFXIII is still a positive move, so I have to support it. Square have been spreading ther games mostly on one format for too long.
I really don't see what Valkyria Chronicles has to do with this article, though. The PS3 version crushed the living shit out of the 360 version (which doesn't exist, so it's easy). While it might be from an "established Japanese studio" there is nothing in the article to indicate that there is a correlation between established Japanese studios and high sales of a property in general, but only for said studios and their existing properties that are closely tied to Sony's platforms. Even then it isn't discussing a high volume of sales, just higher sales in quantity or percentage (relative to hardware install base) for those titles. That the two games cited (Street Fighter 4 and Devil May Cry 4) sold through a lot of copies isn't even relevant.
Overall, it will sell better on the PS3 since Japan is the target audience and it's too gay (like any FF title since the 7th) to move so much units outside of Japan to outnumber the PS3 Japan sales.