According to the Seattle Post Intelligence, Wild Tangent’s chief executive Alex St. John thinks that consoles will be “extinct” by 2020. His substantiations for the claims are almost as silly as his prediction of the end of console gaming. The following was said at the CasualConnect conference in Seattle with a picture of Moses behind him on the screen.
We are looking at the last generation of consoles right now. I am going to predict to you that the PS3, the Wii and the Xbox are the last generation of consoles that you either see or that anybody regards as successful in the market.
The cited reasons for his beliefs are that stockholders won’t want the console manufacturers spending money to create new consoles, and that the TV in the living room will disappear and be replaced by some crazy
Minority Report contraption with multiple screens and interactivity. Also, he claims that laptops in schools will bring a shift to the PC market as kids will begin playing more
Sims expansions and
Diablo knock-offs.
In fact, St. John’s entire speech led to the fact that PC gaming is beginning to take a turn for the better and will eventually dominate the industry like it used to. His focus was that digital distribution, in-game advertising, and demos are causing this massive revolution of which we are participants. Apparently, the success of the Wii means nothing to Mr. St. John in regards to his argument, as he plainly stated that Nintendo’s desire to create peripherals spells the same kind of doom that arcades went through to try to earn back the loyalty of console enthusiasts. At least, so says the spyware developer at WildTangent.
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Contest:
1:01 PM on 07.24.2008
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Oh yeah, they're an industry juggernaut, I'll make sure to listen what they have to say.
the console will kill the PC for casual email checkers.
hahahhahahhaahahahahhhaahahahhahahahahahahahahaa
ahahahahahahahhahhaaahhaahahhahahaha
If PC builders ever got their shit together and provided consistent pricing, streamlined system components, cheaper overall design, and made gaming PC's as affordable as they really are (trust me, you don't have to spent 1500 dollars on a gaming rig, 600-800 should do you just fine), PC gaming would rule the world. It's a far more robust platform.
Right now, it's just too confusing for new gamers to know that their PC is good enough to run new games, and it's too expensive to build a gaming PC unless you really do your homework. The problem has numerous sources though. Microsoft needs to support the platform more (which would be bad for the Xbox), video card designers need to have some logical naming system and be more on top of bugs (logical naming system may hurt short-term profits, but if the PC gaming industry goes down the crapper so do video card designers), PC developers need to work harder on compatibility and stop expecting everyone to have a 3000 dollar PC (Crysis, I'm looking at you), and the industry, overall, needs to take a long, hard look at accessibility.
the console will kill the PC for casual email checkers."
Either way, we're going to see a fusion. Personally, I'd rather see the comparatively open-ended and mostly non-proprietary PC win out over all three, but, as I said before, Microsoft, video card developers, PC manufacturers, and PC game developers really need so get all their ducks in a row.
I'm so willing to give up rich console experiences like Super Mario Galaxy, Halo 3, and Metal Gear Solid 4 to play some incredibly shitty, spyware laden games.
How in the world can someone so delusional be in charge of a company? I would have laughed his ass off the stage.
That picture of Moses behind him must have been facepalming.
I do think he has a point though. The cost of consoles is rising and the price of good computer hardware is dropping. At some point there may be that intersection where buying the newest console is going to cost you as much money as if you went out and bought a new computer.
What would really be an end to consoles is if the average gamer pulled their head out of their ass and learned that good video cards don't cost $600 and are simple to install.
Ah, that's where I know the name from. I'm reading this and thinking "what the hell is WildTangent? For some reason, I'm feeling hatred at the mentioning of that name."
Yep...he's someone in the know that everyone should hold in high regard.
I like both PC and console gaming, but I'm really starting to lean toward console right now because I don't have to worry about not having the right hardware specs to run a game. I don't need to worry about driver problems, and I don't have to worry about draconian DRM measures (ala Mass Effect PC).
Ultimately, I think the console will continue to be the gaming king because it makes games more accessible to more people.
Are you talking about PC's or consoles? :P
"What would really be an end to consoles is if the average gamer pulled their head out of their ass and learned that good video cards don't cost $600 and are simple to install."
Finally, someone with some damn sense around here.
"Ultimately, I think the console will continue to be the gaming king because it makes games more accessible to more people."
That depends on whether or not things will stay the same as they are now. I wouldn't count on it. I think PC's will get more accessible as PS360's become less accessible. Already, compare sticking the Atari cartridge into the slot and turning the power on to having/not having a hard drive, hard drive installation (a la MGS4), having/not having Live!, etc.
What we need is one single gaming platform, an open standard that can run on various hardware setups. In 2020 we might not have consoles as we know them today, but we're also likely not to have PCs as we know them today.
On top of the benefits a unified platform would have for all gamers, it will also kill all platform fanboyism, and that is a noble vision if I ever heard one.
The PConsole.
OMFG KOPYRITE
On top of the benefits a unified platform would have for all gamers, it will also kill all platform fanboyism, and that is a noble vision if I ever heard one."
Yeah, but it won't ever happened. If it did happen, it would probably result from something horribly evil move by Microsoft, which would lead to incredibly expensive games and shitty service.
The PC is pretty much the ideal universal platform. Developers freely admit they develop most multiplatform games for the PC whether or not they plan to release them for PC. It's just easier to make it for the PC and then port it. It also doesn't hurt any console's feelings, and Microsoft is, obviously, pretty cool with PC development. Still, it won't happen. To much money invested in consoles at this point... not to mention fanboyism.
"Consoles are easier to operate and are cheaper. You PC guys are nuts."
How much money have you spent on your consoles? I'm guessing the 360 and PS3 together cost around 800-1000 dollars. That's more than I spent on my PC. I guarantee you I have access to more games (this includes older games, mods, freeware, emulation, etc.). I'll freely admit its arguable over which has better new games. I'm a strategy game guy, so I go gaga over the PC. However, I also use my PC for internet surfing, work, music, other media, etc. I guess you can do all of that on the PS3 or 360, but I don't see how it could be nearly as easy or useful in any of those realms.
Also, once consoles can be word processors, its game over.
PC's will always be around to do stuff for use in the design industry and engineering industry. I use Catia and Solidworks all day at work.
There is alot of truth in what he says, PC gaming has experiened a massive boom in the past few years due to the emergence of online distribution, online games and MMOs such as WOW. In some parts of the world such as Korea and alot of Europe, console gaming is completely overshadowed by PC gaming. You can see consoles moving towards that more online connected experience that only existed on the PC say 10 years ago and if you think about it consoles are really just PCs with special software.
With the rise of online gaming consoles could start to feel the strain as the software cannot adapt and evolve in the same way PC software can. New online experiences such as Quake online, battlefield heroes and legions:fallen empire cannot be done effectively on consoles in the same way they can on the PC and in my opinion it won't be long before we see so called 'browser games' matching the graphical fidelity and gameplay of 'proper' pc/console games, these sort of games have massive appeal due to the ease of use and the playable anywhere mentality. The consoles will have to change to become more like PCs and eventually they will be PCs themselves. You can already see this starting to happen in this generation, especially with the PS3.
Its far more predicting to say that since the console is starting to get on the internet with games that pirating and bootlegging will slow and allow for the expansion of consoles in these markets.
Also the whole reason for console growth is their cheap entry cost compared to a highend PC which can run up to 5k. With PC games these days often ported from consoles it makes no sense to purchase such a high end computer.
Even in the year 2020, the comp specs will still have such a large variance that the console will still be number 1, because the faster the PC changes and adapts. The slower the adoption rate of new PCs. Why because people are still attempting to get mileage on what they already purchased.
Right now is that very effect. The reason for the "slow down" isn't that people are not willing to purchase the games but people are not willing to adopt newer technology. By 2020 "HE" believes that will be the time when a younger generation along with adopters of the new technology will emerge. I believe he is wrong however, even if this happens it will increase PC sales and not necessarily increase software sales.
The console will always remain a steadfast strong sector so long as their are median to low income families or people without tech savvy.
To say consoles will disappear is to say poverty will disappear and everyone will get an IQ boost of 50.
Yeah, maybe a highend PC runs that, but you don't need to spend more than 600-800 for a decent gaming rig. Heck, if you don't really care about Crysis and its ilk, you could probably get away with spending 500 dollars. Hell, my brother only spent 500 or so a few years back, and he doesn't even have a dual core processor. He spent 100 dollars on a vid card. Mass Effect works beautifully.
At the end of the day, you can spend about as much on a PC as you would on getting a complete PS3 (backwards compatibility, decent hard drive, enough controllers) and have a much larger selection to choose from and a lot more to do.
As for PC becoming the dominant platform, I think it's possible for the reasons that were mentioned but it's really hard to tell. I think it's kind of unlikely due to the fact that the mainstream audience values convenience and low price of entry so much which are two things PC gaming is not exactly known for.
There will never be one console. To do that, the console vendors would all have to agree on a "standard". And each vendor will only agree with their own standard. It's like in Pirates of the Caribbean 3, where they are voting for the Pirate King, and Barbosa explains that no one ever becomes Pirate King because each pirate lord always votes for themselves.
Both are possible with PC gaming, but they're almost mutually exclusive right now.. which is a real shame. You can get a cheap PC, but you really have to do your homework. Or you can get a cheap Dell that is decent, but really doesn't rock and roll videogames right now. PC developers, manufacturers, video card developers, etc. all need to understand this before PC's move forward.
I agree. Though I think ironically, the only way they could bring it down to a mainstream audience's level of tolerance is to make them into what essentially would be consoles. It would definitely broaden their market and be beneficial in general though if they did what you're proposing.
I think the 360 and PS3's moves to try and horn in on the advantages of the PC and becoming more complicated will be rebuked and denied by console gamers- the victory of the Wii this generation over the other two to the tune of 16:1 or so proves that. The whole concept of a "PC console merge" is pretty goddamn retarded, because PC gamers and users and devs prefer the platform's open status and freedom, and the console gamers and devs prefer the platforms' closed status and 100% controlled nature and idiot-proofing. If they merged you'd either lose one nature or the other, or probably both, which would leave a set of gamers unsatisfied and thus different markets from that machine.
You're also never, ever, EVER gonna beat the PC's stranglehold on eastern Europe. NEVER.
Word up to mah Euro homiieeezzz!
By the way, the claims that WildTangent are spyware come from a years old unfortunate deal with AOL. They're simply guilty by association in the internet's eyes.
http://www.theinquirer.net/en/inquirer/news/2006/10/14/amd-says-wild-tangent-is-no-spyware
WRONG. :OP
I spend $500 on a console ONCE and I never have to worry about upgrading it in order to get a new game on it. It also provides a great, trouble-free way to deliver TV and movies. I love my computers, but let's face it, I never keep a computer for more than a couple years, anyway, and I'd rather not bog them all down with games that may or may not work on them.
I don't see any of the Big 3 giving up their cash cows anytime soon.
And stop talking about crysis, I made myself a new pc (no monitor of course), and it cost me 600 dollars, crysis is just fine folks, if you dont know what you are talking about because you know a lot about consoles and want to defend your investment, just dont say anything and try to learn something.
Also current generation prices doesn't denote future trends, as time goes on prices tend to go up due to inflation and other trends.
Again console will remain the best entertainment for price, because consoles are ACTIVELY geared and marketed toward a wider audience. I still stick with the 5k overhead price if you think your going to try to use a $800 dollar computer to 2020 your not floating in the right ocean. The 5k comp won't even make it to 2020.
I think, with the implementation of the memresistor, processing power will be localized & subscription based, with the consumer removed completely from the hardware aspect. Why should we pay for individual hardware when you can pay 70 bucks a month so you and your city can tap into a maintained/worry free/constantly upgraded system thats subsidized & integrated into the infrastructure.
@Velt and anyone else who thinks building computers will sustain the industry. Your crazy...if you think the average person can put together than own computer and install all the necessary software. I have a high end PC but I have no illusions about what is possible. The mere fact that the best argument against the console vs the pc is you can build a pc for a little over a good PS3, just shows how little you understand the situation. Do you really think grandyQ and JonnyQ public are going to build their own computers? Why do you think companies like Dell make massive killings on just WARRANTIES?