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Wii to whoop up on PS3 and Xbox 360 for the foreseeable future? photo

It may seem that Michael Pachter has cornered the market, but at least one other analyst has carved out a piece of the pie and made some predictions concerning console sales for 2008. His name is Daniel Ernst (of Hudson Square Research), and his revelation calls for the Wii to outsell the Xbox 360 and the PS3 combined, this year. According to Daniel, momentum is everything -- and Nintendo had no shortage of that in 2007. Citing sales figures for fiscal year 2008, and taking into account said momentum, Ernst feels that Nintendo is on track to sell 23 million Wiis -- to Microsoft's 11.2 million Xbox 360s, and Sony's 12.5 million PS3s: 

"Microsoft got the jump on the industry with a one-year headstart, but nine months after its the launch, the Nintendo Wii overtook the Xbox 360 on a global basis. While the PS3, has struggled out of the gate, we note that since last fall, the console has been outselling the Xbox 360 in Europe, and in the first two months of this year has even outsold the Xbox 360 on its home turf, in the U.S. (In Japan, overtaking the Xbox 360 was almost immediate). With its strong slate of software scheduled for the coming year, we expect a material acceleration for the PS3 this year, but we believe the Wii will sell more than the PS3 and Xbox 360 combined this year."

Not bad for a product that everyone on the Internet claims not to play. Just one question, though: Just how is this supposed to happen if all we ever hear about are Wii shortages? Last time I checked, you can't sell a lot of what you don't have. Does Nintendo have all their consoles holed up in some unmarked warehouse, just waiting to release them before the end of the next fiscal year, to fulfill the prophecy? I'm no analyst, but I just don't see that happening.

[Via GameDaily


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76 comments | showing # 1 to 50

Holyetheline's Avatar - Comment posted on 04/04/2008 10:44
Holyetheline
I play my Wii from time to time... I'm impressed with Nintendo's ability to sell this so well.
NotAZombie's Avatar - Comment posted on 04/04/2008 10:47
NotAZombie
Is there a big game coming out for the Wii this year besides Mario Kart?
Tubatic's Avatar - Comment posted on 04/04/2008 10:49
Tubatic
@NotAZombie

WiiFit

::rimshot::
JACK of No Trades's Avatar - Comment posted on 04/04/2008 10:49
JACK of No Trades
Wow, it just doesn't make since.
Spykron's Avatar - Comment posted on 04/04/2008 10:49
Spykron
@notazombie

none that i can think of. my friends and i were wondering that too and we couldnt find anything.
Lavallee017's Avatar - Comment posted on 04/04/2008 10:51
Lavallee017
@Holyetheline

I agree. I play mine every now and then but at this point I still play my PS2 and PSP more than the Wii. Come June when the MGS4 PS3 bundle is released I fear that the Wii will get no playtime by me at all...

I should have held out for the next Nintendo system to utilize good graphics and a non gimmicky controller. I have stopped buying games that won't allow me to use the classic controller as an option.

until Monster Hunter 3 or a new Kingdom Hearts pops up I think I'm done for a while
DeusPayne's Avatar - Comment posted on 04/04/2008 10:53
DeusPayne
Yes, because we all know that once momentum is built up, it takes a lot to stop it. Wait... this isn't physics? It's economics? Sales? Install base? Exclusive titles? What do you mean those have an effect?
tincow's Avatar - Comment posted on 04/04/2008 10:53
tincow
What do the other consoles have lined up?

I don't hear any games people are really splooging over currently except MK Wii, Wii Fit, and MGS4?

I'm sure people will jump in with more titles but seems kind of like a trick question... there just aren't a lot of great games coming out despite last year supposedly being one of the 'best year for games' ever?
Tubatic's Avatar - Comment posted on 04/04/2008 10:54
Tubatic
but seriously, I'm hoping E3 has tons of surprises this year, because no "hardcore" gamer is anticipating anything on the Wii for the rest of this year.
Tubatic's Avatar - Comment posted on 04/04/2008 10:55
Tubatic
@ tincow

GTA IV
Takeshi's Avatar - Comment posted on 04/04/2008 10:56
Takeshi
Nintendo has my respect.
Takeshi has no Wii.
brad drac's Avatar - Comment posted on 04/04/2008 10:57
brad drac
"Just one question, though: Just how is this supposed to happen if all we ever hear about are Wii shortages? Last time I checked, you can't sell a lot of what you don't have."

Had you considered that the reason there are shortages are because they keep selling out? Forgive me if this is a leap beyond rationality.

Also, the wii's a darn good console. Admittedly not as strong in local singleplayer or online multiplayer as its competitors, but it really can't be beat in local multiplay. Fuck the begrudgers, if they don't like their wiis, they can still get a good price on ebay for them.
Rifter01's Avatar - Comment posted on 04/04/2008 11:04
Rifter01
WiiWare is at least something potentially interesting this year ("La mas potencial").. I'm actually the opposite of Lavallee017.. After supporting Nintendo every console iteration since the NES, if the Wii doesn't get more interesting with time I prob won't care the next home console round, (unless it is a DS 2).
Nogarda's Avatar - Comment posted on 04/04/2008 11:12
Nogarda
In sales Wii kick everyones ass, you cant deny it. but go beyond it and you'll find its the 2nd console of choice for most. (minus those idiotic nintendo fanboy zombies naturally (see gamefaqs)).

Wii just doesnt have the 3rd party support it needs. IMO Mario Kart is still living off the accliam from the original, but its just the same old stuff in new packaging. Nintendo is in DIRE need of original new content. more, no more heroes (pardon the irony) originality.

360 and PS3 have almost closed the market of multiformat and just turned it dual format. I dont see call of duty 4 rainbow vegas 2 on wii as it it just restricts SO much of its userbase.

360 has the userbase, PS3 has the userbase. and they can freely get about online via the game community nintendo has more restrictions than microsoft.

Grandad Nintendo. We have respect you raised us in my childhood, but your just not apart of our lives anymore though we do come for a visit every now and again. XD

nintendo = ages 3 - 17
PS = 10+
xbox 360 = 15+

honestly viva pinata and banjo kazooie are piss poor attempts by xbox to reel in that kid factor but in honesty its easily meant for 15 +.
Gameboi's Avatar - Comment posted on 04/04/2008 11:20
Gameboi
@brad drac

It's not a leap at all, if the shortages aren't artificial in nature. You know, by holding back production to keep demand higher than it really is. Just humor me for a second on this, and allow me to contrast what you are saying.

Nintendo as a company, is a master at making money. The last thing they want it to have a ton of Wiis out there, just sitting on the shelf -- should consumers suddenly decide that the Xbox 360 or PS3 now offers a greater experience. Just something to think about...
TheStripe's Avatar - Comment posted on 04/04/2008 11:33
TheStripe
I spend a whole lot of time on my Wii. A lot of it is on the Virtual Console, but most of it is on Nintendo games, rather than third party titles. Yeah, the 3rd party support isn't fabulous right now, but I can't think of a game coming out in the next four months other than GTA4 that I'm remotely looking forward to. The fact of the matter is that Nintendo is selling consoles as fast as they can make them, which is more than Sony or M$ can say.

@ Rifter - I don't think the Wii is going to get more interesting, it's going to get replaced.
mix's Avatar - Comment posted on 04/04/2008 11:36
mix
I still think the shortage thing is retarded both Nintendo and Microsoft said they had huge shortages. I don't think that walking into a store and seeing 20 Xbox 360s and 10 Wii's can be called being a shortage. Not to be a fan boy but Sony never said they had a shortage while they have units kicking around on shelves as well.

Me and my girlfriend both feel that we wasted our money on the Wii and besides No More Heroes as being a fun playable game I feel violated as a consumer, right up der bum.
Klytus's Avatar - Comment posted on 04/04/2008 11:46
Klytus
This just in!
Bicycles will out-sell karaoke machines.
apples will outsell oranges.
brad drac's Avatar - Comment posted on 04/04/2008 11:48
brad drac
->Gameboi: Nintendo constraining supply is a nice theory, but I know of no evidence to suggest it. I mean, holding back stock a year and a half after release? That is just plain ballsy in the extreme. Maybe sony in the height of their infamy might have tried it, but nintendo (ironically, given the nature of the wii) generally seem to be more conservative when it comes to the business end of things. I just don't see why nintendo wouldn't be trying to move as much stock as possible while the going is good, as they are most certainly aware that this level of popularity is an extremely finite resource, which they've already pushed beyond anyone's expectations. They did still sell 23 million last year, I mean that is a SHIT LOAD of consoles to sell in a single year. Most manufacturers wouldn't even consider producing so many. There's also the problem that if they ramp up production now, and popularity suddenly wanes(which it inevitably will), they'll have a shedload of excess stock, which they'll have to cut the price on to shift, and a needlessly bulked up production line. Unless I see some reason to believe the contrary, I don't buy nintendo shipping any less than they're able.
dprime's Avatar - Comment posted on 04/04/2008 12:09
dprime
Can we have a single arguement about this where every single comment doesn't imply that everyone who disagrees is a retarded sissy idiot?
Novakaine's Avatar - Comment posted on 04/04/2008 12:11
Novakaine
I agree with brad_drac. I think Nintendo initially had a controlled shortage around launch and a few months thereafter, but I think it's just that in-demand. Also, Wii has become a phenomenon, and organizing shortages would do absolutely nothing but hurt them. It'd be one thing if you're talking about PS3 organized shortages, but this is the hottest console on the market--they'd be stupid to not get as many systems out as they could.

(And for what it's worth, my gaming is on Wii/GC bc, PS2, and DS/GBA bc. Cheapass gaming FTMFW.)
dprime's Avatar - Comment posted on 04/04/2008 12:11
dprime
And Brad is right, I'm no expert in economics, but the half-understanding I've had from the books I've read in my leisure and the high school class and just common sense makes it seem pretty clear that the "purposely restraining stock" theory is insane.
John B's Avatar - Comment posted on 04/04/2008 12:12
John B
@dprime:

Or a mindless fanboy?
dprime's Avatar - Comment posted on 04/04/2008 12:12
dprime
Nova we play the exact same systems...

Also I mouch plenty of 360 times off of my friend's who own one.
dprime's Avatar - Comment posted on 04/04/2008 12:15
dprime
Yes John.

"I believe that x-system will sell better and if you don't that's because you're a y-system fanboy!" is not an arguement.

This whole attack on "fanboys" has become a fucking witch hunt. Blindly and arbitrarily supporting a system isn't as bad as blindly and arbitrarily attacking anyone who supports a system.
NightDehumidifier's Avatar - Comment posted on 04/04/2008 12:16
NightDehumidifier
They'll be bought more but returned more. What with Saints Row 2, Grand Theft Auto 4 and all the murder sims out on the market, kids can't play that on the Wii. So mom will rush out for one, but little Billy Homicide wants it returned for a PS3 or 360.
dprime's Avatar - Comment posted on 04/04/2008 12:21
dprime
I've got two little brothers 8 and 10 who I don't live with, and they love their GameCube more than their 360. Not to mention when I come over with my Wii...
AgentMOO's Avatar - Comment posted on 04/04/2008 12:29
AgentMOO
Wiiware has potential; but the Wii Fit is a quagmire.

I can't picture Americans buying the Wii fit. The waggle controls worked great for Wii sports, and people took to it because it was in the familiar shape of a controller. But who's going to buy a $90 scale?
John B's Avatar - Comment posted on 04/04/2008 12:32
John B
@dprime:

It's not even about supprting a system for these people. It's also about blindly and arbitrarily attacking someone who simply doesn't happen to own the same system.

I'm sick of the narrow-minded PS3/XB360 jackasses in this place acting like owning a Wii (and only a Wii as a console) means that you're not "hardcore"? O RLY? My PC setup will blow any console out of the water. Guaranteed. And it gets plenty of CoD4, Bioshock, BF2142, and other FPS usage.

But to listen to the idiots on this site, "OH!! But it's not on a console!! What? You're only console is a Wii? Oh, you're not hardcore!" Yeah, whatever. My hardcore stuff is done on my PC. My lighter stuff is done on the Wii ... if "No More Heroes" can be called "lighter stuff".
Huangism's Avatar - Comment posted on 04/04/2008 12:53
Huangism
ummm... NO Wii sucks
tincow's Avatar - Comment posted on 04/04/2008 12:59
tincow
Just ignore them, John B. Wii + PC is a great choice for a serious gamer. It allowed you to play most of the best games (according to critics) last year, the real exception being Rock Band. You also had a family-friendly, fun, party game type machine and a more hardcore, FPS, I want to blow up jackasses on the internet type machine.

Alternatively, if you don't have a gaming PC, I guess it's Wii + 360, as you basically get the same thing.

Those two seem like the obvious winning setups at the moment, and of course that makes people who inexplicably purchased a PS3 angry? :)
Dogen's Avatar - Comment posted on 04/04/2008 13:16
Dogen
Wii + PC is my duo of choice, for most of the reasons above. My friend has Rock Band, so I don't need the 360 for that, the Wii has all the crazy games you couldn't make on a PC, and my PC plays most of the serious games I'm interested in either out of the box or with not-emulation. Once Mass Effect gets released for PC there won't be a single game I care about that isn't covered by one or the other.

I don't claim to be hardcore, so I'm sure I don't have any authority on the matter, but the Wii is a gaming platform just like the rest of them. Its library is a little different, but in the end you're still playing video games, and they're still a bucket of fun.
Mister Disco's Avatar - Comment posted on 04/04/2008 13:20
Mister Disco
For the record, no, I'm no fanboy. I play my 360 way more than my Wii, although thanks to Smash Bros. it's gotten a lot more play lately around here. This is purely factual; just an anecdote if you will.

Well, here's a little info from my side of the retail counter. I work for GameStop, and my store is considered "low traffic" so we get one, maybe two shipments of Wii a week, which is 3-6 systems. Higher traffic stores may get 12-18 a week. On average we have about 300 Wiis in the area per week, and that's not counting Wal-Mart, Circuit City, Best Buy or any other outlets that also sell Wiis. We sell out of those 300+ within a day, at most, sometimes in a few hours. That's a lot of Wiis. And it's been like this for over a year.

Now, I know a buddy in Seattle who says he can walk into any retailer practically and find a Wii so maybe it's just my area, but I will definitely attest to the popularity/shortage situation here in Denver/Springs.
Gavin's Avatar - Comment posted on 04/04/2008 13:21
Gavin
Hooray for shitty PS2 ports!!!!!!!
wonky360's Avatar - Comment posted on 04/04/2008 13:40
wonky360
Wii dont care.
Crunshii's Avatar - Comment posted on 04/04/2008 13:43
Crunshii
If Ninty makes a Wii ball massager, then yes, I will use my Wii non stop. Other wise, old people/kids can enjoy the Fantabulous Wii titles.
pedrovay2003's Avatar - Comment posted on 04/04/2008 13:44
pedrovay2003
Well, I love Nintendo, but after Wii Fit and Mario Kart come out, both before the halfway mark of the year, I really don't see anything else worth looking into besides WiiWare...

Here's hoping for a huge announcement or something.

Also, @tincow, dogen, and Agent Moo

Rock Band IS coming to the Wii... It's just gonna be the crappy PS2 version (I still don't understand WHY, but oh well). But I plan on picking up Wii Fit just for the possible Skate support. :P
parrothead's Avatar - Comment posted on 04/04/2008 13:56
parrothead
I never play my Wii, but I am going to get Wii Fit so I can get in shape!!
freeman1's Avatar - Comment posted on 04/04/2008 14:34
freeman1
Reggie said Nintendo is announcing all of their games for the second half of 2008 at E3.
Hiltz's Avatar - Comment posted on 04/04/2008 14:37
Hiltz
Iwata did say a couple of months ago that Nintendo would like to eventually launch the Wii in China and Vietnam in 2008, but that may be a problem with the current 1.8 million production unit limit.

We'll have to wait until E3 in order to find out what big new games Nintendo will be announcing and whether or not they'll be coming out this year. Although, according to Reggie, at least one big title should be ready in time for the holiday. Of course, it may end up being delayed.

I only hav a Wii and I mosly have hardcore games them being Metroid Prime 3, No More Heroes and Zelda:TP. I'm not sure if people consider Smash Bros to be hardcore or not.. although I do play that game every day.I'm looking forward to Mario Kart, Okami, Oboro Muramasa Youtouden, Wiiware, Disaster, Sadness, Retro Studio's next project and hopefully a new and proper Kirby and Starfox game.
-PL-'s Avatar - Comment posted on 04/04/2008 14:45
-PL-
I'm sure PS3 and 360 will do better when people realize they don't want to play terrible games.
tincow's Avatar - Comment posted on 04/04/2008 14:45
tincow
Well, they've teased a big nintendo franchise release for around Xmas..of course teasing that is like teasing that the sun will rise tomorrow, but whatever.

Of course, talking about these first-party big releases is just Nintendo screwing smaller third-party publishers. They really can't win around these parts. :)
Hiltz's Avatar - Comment posted on 04/04/2008 15:17
Hiltz
Wii: In term's of software, the Wii currently has the best amount of first-party games in my opinion. However, it has the worst third-party games. Of course, there are a few good third-party games worth playing.Fortunately, I think this year will be better for Wii's third-party games than when compared to last year. Still, it won't be at the level of 360 or PS3's quality and quantity of good games especially when the other two home consoles benefit from multi-platform games (mostly AAA titles like GTA, Soul Calibur IV, RE 5 and so on). I wouldn't be surprised if the Wii's first-party lineup for this year will be slightly weaker than last year's.

Xbox 360: The best third-party games but its first-partt games are pretty pathetic. I mean, other than Halo, the 360 really doesn't have much to offer at the moment.

PS3: Sony is pretty much in the middle. Still, the 360 seems to have better third-party support at the moment ,but there will soon be a good improvement in the PS3's first party games with titles such as MGS4 coming out.
Hiltz's Avatar - Comment posted on 04/04/2008 15:42
Hiltz
PL makes it sound like the entire Wii game library is terrible. Of course, that's simply not true. All of the home consoles have suffered from receiving bad games.

Unfortunately, the Wii is in a slightly different situation than the PS3 and Xbox 360. For starters, there has yet to be a third-party game that looks nearly as good as Metroid Prime or Super Mario Galaxy. In addition, there's only about a handful of third-party games that use the Wii controls properly. Secondly, most developers are not making multiplatform games for the Wii and even the ones that the Wii has are either ports or watered down versions of the Xbox 360 and PS3 games.Lastly, there's the whole issue of publishers taking advantage of the Wii's cheap game development costs and developers being lazy and foolish for not making good quality games and using the Wii controls properly. Lastly, the Wii has the least amount of hardcore and mature games of the three home consoles. Also, Nintendo's wi-fi service isn't all that good right now and many gamers and developers are frustrated by the lack of voice chat and the inconvenience of friend codes.
Fizznuts's Avatar - Comment posted on 04/04/2008 16:17
Fizznuts
I wonder if all of these sales figures include all the consoles that Walmart bought and then repackaged as $600 bundles. I believe Nintendo has gone on the record as saying they don't support retailers doing that, but I'm sure they're just as happy to count those figures as well.

Man, I used to really love Nintendo, but I just can't get behind them on this one. Or maybe it's just sour grapes because I can't get my hands on a retail priced Wii...

Oh and ... Force Unleashed!
Dogen's Avatar - Comment posted on 04/04/2008 16:41
Dogen
The Wii's selection of third-party games is weak. Unfortunately for the people who continue to bring up this point, it doesn't seem to be hurting the overall lineup of games. At risk of getting my ass handed to me, I'd say the library is competitive with both the PS3 and 360. I'd like to claim that they're equal, but there's no real way to measure that.

On the subject of voice chat, is it really that important? Most of the comments I hear/read about Live is that it's full of fratboys, 10-year-olds, and racists. Anonymous voices spewing profanities can stay out of my Brawl matches, thank you very much, and if it saves bandwidth/cuts lag to keep them out of everyone's experience then it seems like the smart choice to me. Online play is slower than local already, and giving people the option to slow it further by voice chatting would inconvenience the multitude who don't really give a damn.
brainderailment's Avatar - Comment posted on 04/04/2008 17:12
brainderailment
Saying they will sell "23 million Wiis" is saying they can produce that many. If they didn't sell 23 million last year, they probably won't get much closer this year.
liquidninja's Avatar - Comment posted on 04/04/2008 17:24
liquidninja
Sean Malstrom has been saying this for a long time now. The video game market as we know it now is gonna be blown away by nintendo's strategy for disturbance.
Necros's Avatar - Comment posted on 04/04/2008 17:27
Necros
I'm sure Wii will continue selling more, simply because of the novelty of Wii Sports. Whether the Dtoid demographic is buying it is another case entirely.
Necros's Avatar - Comment posted on 04/04/2008 17:27
Necros
I'm sure Wii will continue selling more, simply because of the novelty of Wii Sports. Whether the Dtoid demographic is buying it is another case entirely.
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