Excellent blog and this pretty much echoes my own thoughts.
That and they understand this one simple fact.
Weakest hardware on the markets always wins. The next system may be stronger than PS3 and 360 in the immediate future, but you can trust Sony and MS to up the ante further in the graphical arms race.
And by that point, Nintendo will have the "weaker" console, it will be established and at a more affordable price. Also, I think many developers may be willing to stay behind at this console's level remembering the level of production cost moving up to PS3 and 360 had. Additionally it may keep developers working on PS3 and 360 as well, which could be rather damaging to a PS4 or whatever Xbox comes next.
Ultimately, we'll have to wait and see. I know I'm getting a 360 over a PS3 this year and this next console from Nintendo may halt my decision to get a PS3 later entirely if it grabs up the right mix of third party titles and ports. I know it will have awesome first party games, so I'm not exactly worried about that.
That said, I disagree with much of it. True gamers will play any system that gives them quality games and new experiences. Nintendo is famous for always providing both. I believe the segment of gamers who would make a decision on whether or not to buy a console based on their achievement history is small (thank God!). Achievements are fun and all, but is anyone worth their salt going to turn down the chance to play Metroid HD because it doesn't benefit their gamer score? I suspect not. The challenge is providing enough exclusive content or enough of a performance upgrade. I think Nintendo will need to (and will) lean heavily on securing exclusive 3rd party titles (with Nintendo support) to accompany their delicious catelog of franchises.
As for the "casual" gamers. I see no reason why they wouldn't flock to the Cafe the same as they did the Wii. The idea that they require overly simplistic controls to play a game is condescending at best. How many of us started our gaming history with nothing but a joystick and a red button? Have any of the newer generations of consoles (which for several iterations increased the complexity of the controls) made it prohibitively difficult for us to enjoy games? No, as we game our skills improve. The same would be true for anyone, just at a varying rate of improvment. Nintendo will ensure there are titles to entice those hoping for games with a shorter learning curve (a kickass Cafe shop with options to fill the void just north of apps, perhaps).
Finally, I suspect (and we'll know soon enough if I'm horribly off base) that the Cafe controller and particularly the rumored screen on the controller will enable controls similar to what is available on a DS or an iPhone. I don't know about you, but I'm pretty impressed with what nongamers can accomplish on an iPhone. By bringing in a control method that is comfortable to so many of the "casual" gamers they attracted with the Wii, Nintendo will no doubt entice them to upgrade. And it's not a stretch to see them upgrade. After all, people upgrade their iDevices every year or two. They build kitches with high end appliances even though they can't cook. They buy BMWs even though they drive in a manner that requires nowhere near the level of performance the car offers. I have no doubt they will buy a console with family friendly titles (and other media capabilities) that shows off their HD set regardless of how much use they get out of it.
Now I don't know about everybody else, but I was mostly joking about the "OMG ZELDA HD HNNNNNG!!!!" thing. Yeah, I love it when games are pretty and that extra power would surely be useful, but I need to see a lot more. It's as Nintendo themselves have said, looks and processing power are never enough. And Nintendo has regularly shown that their very stubborn when it comes to their ideas and beliefs(friend codes and 3D), so I doubt that's going to change any time soon.
And I've said this already in starmacs blog- which brought up some similar points by the way- Nintendo has never changed, and they never will. It's pretty much their motto even, Saturo Iwata has said it numerous times: "We want to make products for the mass market. We want something that everyone will have fun with."
That should be the only reason why Nintendo would want to capture the hardcore market. Which isn't that big of a market as people think it is anyway. Also, judging by sales of COD, Mario Kart, Wii fit, Wii sports, Just Dance, Kinect and Angry Birds, if there is one market you can rely on it's the casual market. If it's simple, a popular franchise and/or it has enough hype, they'll buy it. And all you need is one product to sway them to buy your console. They seem quite gullible to say the least.
Also, I predict that if the new Café controller has a screen, it will glasses free 3D as well as being a touch screen.
Also also,this whole talk of Nintendo being hardcore but turning casual reminds me of that Ice cube "At first I was like..." meme.
Also x3, your Fast and Furious review on Flixist was amazing. That part where you described the fight between Vin Diesel and Dwayne Johnson was outrageously epic.
I'm going to stake a claim that the Cafe will be compatible with all Wii games and controllers. This way, developers can still make games on the cheap if they want, and the entire Wii library isn't suddenly irrelevant. It will basically be two systems in one, as opposed to having competing systems available at the same time.
What do you think? would that happen?
Those are two big IFs...
@Silent Protagonist: I don't think it's so simple as 'weakest wins'. The PS had an amazing marketing campaign behind it, PS2 had the brand name and an exceptional library of games, the Wii tapped into a brand new market and offered a more accessible (note: not simplistic) form of game control than had never been seen before. I don't think the actual power of the consoles had much to do with their success.
@VenusInFurs: How do you mean?
@ctrain: As I said to Silent Protagonist, I don't think the Wii's success with new gamers was at all down to 'simple' controls, as much as controls that were more understandable. A lot of non-gamers struggle to remember what button is where and what each does, but performing a motion that replicates an action on-screen gives an easy avenue to control what is happening on-screen. It was third-party shovelware which equated 'casual' gaming with simplicity.
The key reason I don't think casual gamers will flock to the Wii is because all reports say that the Wii is going underused in a lot of households: I can't see those people shelling out a lot of money for an upgrade to a console they rarely played. That seems even less likely to me should Nintendo go back to a traditional controller (which I don't think they will) as the main control scheme. A lot of people aren't that tech-conscious and while many might have upgraded to HD when replacing an old TV, there were reports a while ago that many of them might not even have realised how to use the HD function. It's right that Nintendo are finally moving with the times, but I doubt it will help them sell consoles to gamers who already have HD gaming, or other people who don't put so much value in it.
@Wolfy-Boey: I think Nintendo want to change, but they've put themselves in a middle ground that will be hard to break out of. For reasons mentioned above, holding onto all their new customers will be a challenge and could risk further alienating traditional gamers. Going after the traditional gamer risks doing the opposite, and it will take a lot to both offer what they want while differentiating themselves from what the competition has already established.
Thanks for the F&F compliment by the way! That scene was quite something...
I think Nintendo will do fine. We can finally have a COD or Battlefield game that looks and plays well - I wouldn't want to play those games, but it's nice to have the option.
Nintendo's best chance is to do what they did last time with the Wii, pulling a product out of the hat which promises to change the way we play games, while also making it functional (I love the Wii, but no-one could argue that its technology worked as well as it should have) and compatible with the experiences 'hardcore' gamers are already getting, as not to alienate them. No easy task, being all things to all people.
I may be too optimistic, but I think Cafe will be the best of both worlds - casuals and hardcore players will like it. Well, I hope so.
Hiroshi Yamauchi, former president of Nintendo, was obsessed with the idea of making a mass market dual screen handheld device. He kept telling everyone that it needed to happen someday. 2 years after he left, Satoru Iwata announced the DS in E3 2004.
Nintendo had also been obsessed with motion gaming since the NES days(Power glove anyone?). And by 2005, they figured out how to take fully advantage of it and use it to make gaming more accessible even.
And I guess we all know the Virtual Boy by now, but did you also know that Nintendo also had an SNES racing game that also had 3D? It the first project Iwata-San and Miyamoto-San had worked together even. Now, in 2011, after being enamoured with the prospects of 3D they've finally released the 3DS.
You see the pattern I'm seeing?
Heck, Wiiconnect 24 and Spotpass? Nintendo had an online server thing that sent gamers new items for the SNES animal crossing in Japan. Yes, the SNES!
Pretty much everything they've done, including their most successful products, were because of how stubborn they are. So I don't see how or why that's about to suddenly change.
And I would totally make a flixist account just to comment on your reviews (and because the site is awesome too), but I'm having weird problems with that. Rest assured though, one day, my name will pop up on there. One day...
Although many people would claim I'm in denial I thought the Wii had really good 3rd party support 17 of my Wii games are 3rd party while 9 of them are first/second party. Their are 6 other Wii 3rd party games I plan to buy in the future. As far as retail goes I think the Wii has more 3rd party exclusives than the PS3 or 360. I haven't counted so I'm not sure, but a majority of Wii games are exclusive because of the control scheme and limited graphic power. If anything I think cafe will have less third party exclusives, because most 3rd party games would be multiplatform.
A proper online network is a must for me. WiiConnect24 was completely underwhelming (it was only ever useful to charge my PS3 controllers) and they never kept their promise of releasing newer Channels (lack of a DS & Pokemon Channels was a huge miss).
Anyways good blog! I can't wait for E3!!
Genesis was more powerful than SNES
Game Gear and Atari Lynx were stronger than Game Boy.
TurboXpress even moreso than Game Boy.
PSP was stronger than DS.
Xbox and GameCube had better hardware than PS2.
N64 and Saturn a bit stronger than Playstation.
Wii was a slightly stronger Gamecube against PS3 and 360, which were much stronger.
We can point to all these other external factors if we want to, but the simplest answer is the most likely to be true - one console was more affordable and accessible to the mainstream. Power dictates price more often than not.
3DS is a bit more powerful than DS and PSP were. But I promise you NGP will not match its price or go lower, so we'll see this play out to be true again. The most powerful and expensive hardware never becomes the long-term leader.
I think the problem is that a lot of the things you write about aren't things that the "hardcore gamer" will care about. Nintendo isn't cool won't stop us from latching on if the games are awesome and achievements/trophies can be fun diversion, but they're still not the main course. Nintendo are different enough to always get sales, but if they get 3rd party games day and date with PS3 and 360, how can you see it not being a success?
And I think that's where we term success. I don't think whatever they do it will sell in Wii numbers, at least not initially, but Nintendo consoles sold at a profit as always with a fairly high attach rate of Nintendo-made games means they'll do well enough to laugh all the way to the bank. Wii was probably something that will never happen again, if this sells well, it will start slow like the DS and turn into a juggernaught later in life.
As for me, as long as they drop waggle and don't start making shooters, I'll be the happiest guy ever come launch.
The 3ds has had the fastest selling launch of any system in history
"should be a warning sign to Nintendo that there's far more work to be done here than securing the third-party support which the competition already has."
The 3ds has more exclusives on the horizon than the ds did
"Though the handheld has since slipped into one of Ninendo's trademark game droughts"
I am pretty sure every company has this
"there were plenty of appealing, big name third-party games at launch (Ridge Racer, Street Fighter, Ghost Recon, PES etc), yet sales have dipped rapidly. "
Welcome to a non holiday LAUNCH
Sales drop big deal
Couple those facts with the almost undoubtedly staggering cost of each individual controller (I can't see them being under $75 if the stats are to believed) and the horrid battery life that the controllers will have, and I think Nintendo is going to have an uphill climb on this one.
Like I've said before, when I heard about the "screens in the controller" thing, I instantly thought of the Dreamcast VMU and of hooking my GBA up to a Gamecube for some 4 Swords and said "Sweet!" And then I realized that the Dreamcast VMU was borderline worthless outside of a handful of games that didn't really receive much benefit from it to begin with, and how the GBA-Gamecube link was fun for like TWO games that used it in the exact same way and otherwise had no purpose.
Those things will have a small handful of fun ideas for the handheld screen and a hundred tacked on crap-ideas that don't add anything to the gameplay. And the rest of the time they'll just sit there, bulking up my controller, wasting batteries, and doing nothing.
The contollers are also an issue. Im all for innovation and well used motion contols, but they need to also support "Classic" contols so cross-platform games are easily ported. I would absolutely love to play an Elder Scrolls game with well designed motion controllers, but that kind of thing is unlikely to happen.
TL:DR Nintendo needs to support 3rd parties better, otherwise it doesnt matter how innovative they are.
Ah yes there 1 lone failure.
Youd think after all this time after doubting nintendo after every single system release people would get a clue
Because all those kids who sit in their dark room at 1am playing COD with their headsets on are REALLY cool. Fact is GAMING isn't cool.
Article is moronic, but that's obvious to anybody who was provided with a brain at birth. I mean judging a product before we have even SEEN it let alone HEARD anything official about it. That is true idiocy right there.
Gaming isn't cool? Shame much?
Gaming IS cool. Nintendo isn't. Like it or not, that is a big problem for them.
So I just don't see why it has to be one way, or the other for Nintendo. If Microsoft and Sony can copy Nintendo's casual push and still keep their hardcore gamers, than why can't Nintendo win back the hardcore gamers and have both markets as well? They can and I think they will at this years E3. People seem to forget, that the hardcore gamers flipped out last year at E3, when Nintendo announced game, after game, after game. So what's stopping Nintendo from doing that all over again this year? Absolutely nothing!
Yeah there are some big big holes in your hypothesis there, has all those systems that lost so to speak were victims of horrible mis management at one point or another, I don't think price had so much to do with it as incompetence.
For example the game gear power came with the fatal flaw of power consumption that killed its batteries fast and making it a bad handheld in the process. As for the snes you can see the whole no blood in mortal kombat as to why they got screwed. The Saturn was horribly mismanaged period as it should have been easy competition for the playstation.
All those systems had fatal flaws that didn't have jack to do with there price.
Nope not at all. Are you an old man? Cuz that makes sense seeing that Wii is for old people and babies.
I like the Wii a lot, mostly because it's cheap. I can get it for a good price and play all the amazing Nintendo 1st party stuff, and the exclusives. I'm looking at Cafe in exactly the same way. It sounds like it will take longer to come down in price, so we'll see. When it does though, I'll pretty much be picking one up for the exclusives, and I'm sure they'll be amazing. I don't really any other reason to trash the system.
If you want my opinion on it, the successor to the 360 is in infinitely worse shape. I literally see no reason to ever purchase one, ever. I got a 360 at launch, but Microsoft let nearly every single exclusive go to either PC or the PS3. There's only a handful, and they're pretty much done. Bungie left. Gears is signed for 3 games only, and the 3rd is about to come out. Microsoft has zero noteworthy 1st party development. Fable sucks my ass. Kinect sucks. Live is more expensive than any of their competitors, who are free. PS4 will make up any ground that Live was ahead on, and I'm sure they will add in cross game chat, and still keep all the core features and online play free. Sony also learned their lesson with the expensive first model of the PS3.
Literally, unless Sony finds some new and unique way to botch the launch of the PS4, there's absolutely no reason to get the next Microsoft system. At least Cafe is for sure going to have several top tier exclusives, which is a lot more than I can say about Microsoft. PC, PS4, and handhelds for me. Cafe when it's cheap enough to get on the side. Microsoft, no thanks.
If anyone's in trouble it's Sony. The PlayStation brand may be irreparably damaged goods at this point. If Sony doesn't get a good start out of the gate with the PS4, their console days will be over.
Don't believe everything you read on a blog. The system was selling extremely well, throughout the whole "crisis."
Nintendo doesn't need the 'hardcore' gamer. Never has, never will.
I will agree that Nintendo needs to reinforce the principles of what made the Wii a success with its new console.

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