We've all heard people say that Sony should have waited a year to launch the PS3 -- and they're right. The thing is, very few actually go into why this would have been a good move for Sony.
At the time, Sony was focusing very heavily on the PSP, as the system was starting to gain a strong library of games that has almost convinced me to buy one. Yet, everything else went on hold in order to go into full-on PS3 promotion mode. Sony had a console with a $599.99 price point that was going up against a $250 and a $400 console. So naturally, they had an uphill battle.
Yet, what if they had waited a year? What would have happened to their hulking monolith? Let's take a look at the Sony that might have been, as I shall act as the Ghost of Christmas Future, or something like that.
First, there's the Blu-Ray technology. Right now, we're starting to see second generation Blu-Ray players come out, along with a drop in the costs of technology for it. At this point, I'm sure that the change in cost wasn't so dramatic that it would have affected the price of the PS3, but from Sony's standpoint, they'd be less in the red on every PS3 sold. We'd also be looking at faster Blu-Ray drives at the time of release, as well (4x as opposed to the current 2x speed). In addition to that, a smaller 65nm processor would probably be available for Sony to include inside of the system for less power consumption.
Second, there's the increase in titles that would have been available for the system. Sony might have been able to stave off the massive delay of almost-guaranteed killer app Metal Gear Solid 4. Sony has had a strong relationship with third party developers, and so they have the benefit of being able to count on them for developing good titles for their system once they understand everything about how to work it. Another year would have allowed more content to be in Resistance: Fall of Man and other games, as well as the drought of PS3 games coming out to be shortened.
A third bonus for Sony would have been the fact that the nasty Immersion lawsuit would have been done before the PS3 launched, allowing them to put rumble in all of their controllers. Some of the more...vocal critics of the PS3 would have one less issue to deal with in the system.
Also, in terms of competition, they wouldn't be launching right up against the Wii. Currently, the Wii doesn't have any new titles to push more sales, and some of the Fall titles are up in the air -- none of which are going to push massive amounts of new consoles sold. If the PS3 launched in the Fall of 2007, with MGS 4 attached or close by, they could have pushed a lot more consoles than they have so far. Plus for the time being, the PS2 is still pushing out good games that are keeping the console running strong.
It wouldn't have been all sunshine and unicorn-farts for Sony had they launched a year later. For one thing, launching a year later would have given Microsoft complete control over the HD market, giving them an even larger install base than they currently have.
Also, there's no denying the PS3 helped push Blu Ray to the forefront of the market. It's given some 3 million people a reason to buy Blu Ray instead of HD-DVD. Without that, it would have been a more even-levelled fight -- although HD-DVD getting cracked was sort of a nail in the coffin for the format. Still, it could have turned the PS3 into a Betamax player once again.
Sony wouldn't have had to face direct competition against the Wii launch, and along with improvements on the PS3 parts (and maybe even a larger HD) and a better library of games, Sony would have been much better off on launching the system a year later. Oh well, hopefully they'll do better next time.
Contest:
9:59 PM on 05.13.2007
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IF htey would have released a year later, hd-dvd would have pwned the competition now, and no one would bother get blue ray. Also, one more year later Xbox would have grabbed all the developers for themself, so it would have hurt sony more if they waited.
As DMV knows well, one of my main concerns with the PS3 hardware itself (not the software, which is another beef entirely) is the lack of rumble and outdated controller. Hell, even Hideo Kojima has lamented the loss of "Mr. Rumble" as he calls it.
And you are kidding yourself if you don't think that Super Smash Bros. Brawl is going to push a lot of new Wii units come this fall. It's got mainstream appeal, it's the sequel to the best-selling Gamecube game, and it's got fanboy appeal. (For proof of the latter, see this GameFAQs poll.)
A counter argument to all this "they should have waited" shit, would blu-ray be ahead of hd-dvd at this point without the PS3? I know I wouldn't be buying some movies on blu-ray if it wasn't. So it helped them on that front... not just them but every other damned company that is part of the blu-ray group.
But then the PS3 is supposed to be a game system, well what system doesn't have a drought of games, especially with-in it's first year. Happened to the 360, it's happening to the Wii and PS3.
Now lets flip the script and point this at Microsoft. If they would have waited, they could have had a bigger hdd, HDMI and 65nm chips too. Maybe causing less 360's to red ring with 65nm chips? Over a year since launch and people are still bitching about it? Thankfully neither of my 360's have broken down yet *knocks on wood*. Although I can't help but think it's coming. Out of everyone I know that owns a 360, I'm the last one to have to send theirs in for repair.
It also worries me when their top dog say's, consumer's shouldn't focus on if the hardware breaks but how their customer support treats them. (Which I hear mixed reviews about that too)
I dunno, it just annoys me this whole shit. They should have waited! They shoulda this they shoulda that... cause we're all heads of companies that know everything right? Of course! /sarcasm
Here's Peter Moore's Quote that annoys the fuck out of me in response to a customer who replaced his 360 twice in the past 7 months: "I can't comment on failure rates, because it's just not something - it's a moving target. What this consumer should worry about is the way that we've treated him. Y'know, things break, and if we've treated him well and fixed his problem, that's something that we're focused on right now. I'm not going to comment on individual failure rates because I'm shipping in 36 countries and it's a complex business."
think about it. no one is forming a line for Blu-ray players.
or HD-DVD, stand alone or combo.
but if tons of people are lining up for PS3, why not have no games and tons of movies.
NOBODY WANTS TO FEEL STUPID WITH A $600+ DOLLAR
PAPER WEIGHT. so they go out and satisfy the urge to buy buy buy
and for a MEDIA CENTERPIECE Sony bragged about,
PS3 fails miserably.
PS3 looks like it had ZERO strategy at all.
EVEN RIGHT NOW THERE ARE NO GAMES FOR IT.
X360 all the way!
Xbox Live, 24/7 customer support, exclusive games,
Platinum hits, Downloadable content, system updates...
on and on...
now, if sony had waited a year, the 360 would have had an even larger control in the gaming community, as well as having an even larger library of games... not to mention the possibility of the 360 being able to make a price drop before the PS3 launch... so even if PS3 did gain some strength from a year later launch, it would be competing against an even stronger 360 (probably wii aswell)...
So ya, it was rather a damned if they do damned if they don't scenerio...
Wait, what?
"Most people who want brawl already own a Wii, I'd figure."
I know a vey good number of people that want SSBB and cannot find a Wii. It will interesting to see when the Wii finally is able to be readily found and then see what happens when a game like SSBB releases.
As for the articoe, I completely agree. I've said since the PS3 launch they should have had either a Spring 07 or Holiday 07 launch. Even with giving MS that lead, they would have just lost so much of that bad publicity, had more games at launch, had [b]better[/n] games at launch, less bugs and kinks, and even possibly rumble (though I'm betting they still wouldn't).
The PS3 had huge potential even with the $600 price tag but the launch was done so poorly and the fact there are still few games on it that people really want it was just doomed before it launched.
Sony's to do list should look something like this:
1) Fix image
2) Get games
3) More pocky
4) Price drop
Anyway, an '08 release may have been better for Sony if it wasn't for HD-DVD coming to the 360 when it did. Launch games were a problem too, as is the typographical association with a movie that was more bleh than BAM.
Now I don't even want a PS3 for Resistance anymore since that's an "old" title by now and lost it's original appeal. Unless there's some seriously awesome games coming out for the PS3 (Other than MGS, which I don't like) I see no point in buying one. So, in the end they lost a PS3 customer because of their launch. I'll just continue to play my Wii, PS2 and 360 since there's good games coming out for those.
Anyway yeah good article, though near the end it sounded almost like an essay. Still gets the point across.
Someone else already mentioned this but I am saying it anyway: Sony needs to work on their arrogance. They can't just tell people what to buy because they provided us with a quality product ONCE. They need to continue to provide if they want us to continue to buy what they're selling. I've never seen a company be so blatantly condescending to the public as Sony was coming up to the launch of the PS3.
As for the future of the system, it's hard to say. Their install base is already around 4 million as of a few weeks ago which is surprisingly good considering the price and the game library. It's certainly not a failed project. Eventually they'll put out some quality games, at which point the reasonable consumers will start to think about buying the console. It doesn't really seem to me like they're hurting too badly. I wish I could say otherwise though, they don't really deserve this success quite yet.
Actually the more I think about it the less it makes sense. Who owns four million of these things? I think I've derailed my train of thought a few too many times, let's see if we can find the point... it might just be one sentence.
Releasing when they did couldn't have been so bad considering the sales figures. It's hard to say how much they could have helped themselves by waiting though, an alternate reality we'll never know.
That's assuming there is a next time
HOW COULD THEY HAVE LOST TOUCH WITH THIRD PARTY SO FAST!!?!
THEY RULED THE WORLD WITH PS2.
SO WTF WERE THEY THINKING.
If they had games, NO ONE would be angry/disappointed.
It would turn the tables completely around.
but i guess Resistance is their killer app.
that or those cool UPDATES.
to think, there are more updates than games for the PS3
how much money do you think insomniac REALLY made off of resistance? they couldn't have sold too many titles considering the installed user base isn't that high. granted, if EVERY ps3 owner bought a copy it'd be great, but i doubt that happened (although i agree with a few people here that resistance is the only game worth owning right now anyway).
plus, insomniac was working on r&c future since before resistance was even close to being released. the company has two full dev teams on it. there was an interview on ign about it last week: http://ps3.ign.com/articles/787/787565p1.html
i doubt the money earned from resistance really had too much of an impact on r&c. the development tools, however, admittedly did (as stated in the above article).
still, only having a small handful of great game developers being faithful to your system doesn't bode well. insomniac and naughty dog are good... but even square enix has been branching out to other systems. i think sony is in trouble and that launching a year later would have hurt their already crippling hold on system exclusive titles (like devil may cry). what they should have worked on was getting finalized dev kits to developers sooner so more games could have been ready for launch/not miss their release days. then again, that could have been accomplished had they launched later... hmm... just my two cents, though.
There must be some way to optimize how they do business and communicate more somewhat. Then again, I know bugger all about that side of the industry in all fairness so it's just a guess. Hopefully someone somewhere has an answer :)