well look at where we are now...
I don't have the opportunity to watch the video right now where I am, but I'm willing to say (which the video probably shoots down or says it self in some way) that this is Nintendo that was being talked about initially, and they really seem to, no matter what they say, fall back on their old practices even when they promise profusely things are going to change. The example of the 3DS possibly taking the same route as the DS just wasn't a good example, the real example should have been the N64 thru to the Wii.
It doesn't make me hate the company at all, but its getting really very old after so long and I'd just love for them to stick to their plans/guns for one cycle.
I don't think and I'm pretty sure most marketing research would agree that mobile gaming or gaming in general can all be lumped into one market as if they were all directly competing with each other.
It's similar to saying MC Fucking Donalds has the market cornered on cheap ass food and it makes no sense to put out anything in competition with it. A 5 star restaurant does not tie into the market place of MC Fucking Donalds. So not all food, or in this case games are in direct competition with each other. I think the greater likely hood is that most are still no the DS bandwagon and with little to no games being present for the 3DS is there any competition with even it's OWN product. It's basically a DS with no meat and some cheese, in food terms. It doesn't matter if Mobile Ass Crack down the street is selling hotcakes for cheaper some mother fuckers want their meat.
So in the end I disagree and agree, agree with the general idea behind the post but disagree with your market skills.
Back then, they were somewhat competent and hadn't completely lost their minds. Now we're dealing with the Nintendo that whines about losing hardcore fans when they have hardcore games ready that they don't want to release in America because they'd rather make Wii U Golf.
Licensees were not permitted to release the same game for a competing console until two years had passed.
Nintendo would decide how many cartridges would be supplied to the licensee.
Nintendo would decide how much space would be dedicated for articles, advertising, etc. in the Nintendo Power magazine.
There was a minimum number of cartridges that had to be ordered by the licensee from Nintendo.
There was a yearly limit of five games that a licensee may produce for a Nintendo console. This rule was made to prevent market over saturation, which caused the North American video game crash of 1983.
And this is their system now (it says it was reported on 2010 and Im not sure if it has changed or not but it was only one year ago)
1. Repeat manufacture starts from X thousand units.
Sometimes developers don’t have enough copies on the first run of their game (either they were too safe with the numbers or the game just explodes in popularity).
If they decide to print more copies of their game, Nintendo says you must start with X thousand (the X is a secret number protected by NDA) compared to other hardware manufacturers that start at 100. This creates an incredible risk for small publishers such as Alchemist.
2. Manufacture turnaround time is 3-4 weeks.
With DS games, it takes Nintendo 3-4 weeks to manufacture a second run of carts, compared to the 1 week turnaround for other hardware manufacturers.
If you’re game is selling like crazy, you can imagine you need to get more copies out ASAP. However, Nintendo doesn’t see this.
3. Manufacturing costs must be paid 100% upfront.
Say it costs 1000 yen to manufacture each game (this cost actually depends on the size of the cart). If it’s expected to be a big hit and sell 1 million units, that would cost the developer 1 billion yen that they need to pay upfront.
For a small developer, that’s an incredible amount of money and causes a lot of cash flow issues. He suggests that it should be reduced to at least 1/3 upfront payment to ease headaches.
http://www.nintendo3dsinfo.com/japanese-developer-sheds-light-on-issues-third-parties-face-with-nintendo/
Senran Kagura may be their only hope!
No offensive, but everyone should mock mobile developers, especially Nintendo. This is like telling David Lynch to not mock Lady Gaga's new music video, because more people saw it than Blue Velvet. Comparing the quality of Nintendo games to mobile games is like comparing the Mona Lisa to "That Ganondorf." Just because one sells more, doesn't mean that we shouldn't all still endlessly talk shit on it.
You have some good points in the video though, which pretty much everyone can agree on without controversy. It just seems like it's 20/20 hindsight analysis.
Most people say in the same breath that smartphone gaming is taking over, and then proclaim that the 3DS was overpriced at $250. When you point out that iphone/ipads run you $400-800, these same people are quick to point out that you can't compare the two because Apple has a following that is willing to just agree to pay whatever they want. But by separating Apple buyers from 3DS buyers, aren't you admitting that they're two totally different markets?
As usual, I still think that the Apple effect is 100% overblown in this case. I think that the economy is having more of an effect on the success of the 3DS than anything else, as people are just less likely to part with money these days. Nintendo may have lost the "Brain Age" market - those soccer moms who just wanted their one or two games. But that was really only a factor with the DS. The 3DS will still do well once the games start rolling in.
And there's no denying that there is plenty of room to also criticize the media's role in exacerbating the 3DS "crisis." In all my years as a gamer, I've never seen a price cut reported on with such scorn. This is usually great news, and cause for celebration everywhere. I think that every writer with an audience these days is just looking for any excuse to write about how the portable market is dead and Apple killed it, and how they were right and called it. Naturally, this constant harping and nagging provokes angry responses from fans of portable gaming who are tired of seeing an extremely talented game studio crucified by journalists' latest pet narrative.
I think Nintendo was able to create a war chest of cash because of the much-maligned casual, housewife market who was there long enough to give Nintendo their money and then proceed to allot a space in their house for a white rectangle to start collecting dust. The magpie casual demographic is gone now and we are starting to see the real Nintendo again; the Gamecube era Nintendo.
Gimmicks should have been the death of them. Milking franchises dry should have been the death of them. But, somehow, flailing your arms and then getting bored 45 minutes later resonated with a large group of people.
I guess it's easy to play "let's think about what could have happened." Hell, Halo could have stayed on Mac. I think that Nintendo is successful at the moment for different reasons than it thinks. They lucked into a fad.
Can't say I feel very good about this, but the times are changing and so are gamers.
Using the past, as an excuse to justify your purchase of a 3DS, isn't a valid argument. Its logically fallacious, to word it pretentiously.
You cannot arbitrarily decide that the 3DS will follow the DS, in terms of long term success just because the DS and the 3DS BOTH HAD NO GOOD GAMES WHEN THEY LAUNCHED?
That's like saying the PS3 will be just as successful as the PS2 because they BOTH were made by Sony and both featured brand new proprietary formats which other consoles had yet to adopt.
Inductive reasoning only gets you so far.
It doesn't matter what the fans thing, Nintendo themselves have admitted it's not selling well, and Iwata himself has admitted the reasons for it (I'm sure Reggie is completely ignorant on all the facts)
Whether it makes them money in the end or not is up to be seen.
Whether Nintendo can king of handhelds remains up to be seen (YES SMARTPHONES ARE COMPETITION)
As long as Nintendo keeps churning out Mario and Zelda... people will continue to buy Nintendo hardware. They may buy the hardware to only play that new Zelda game - but they'll still eventually buy it.
The Past is Not the Future! The Future is Not the Past! Sounds like something a 6th grader would attempt to use as a statement in debate class before the teacher moves the embarrassing display along and tells everyone to pick their nose for 5 minutes before recess.
Another nice attempt to divert attention away from your own trolling style, to make everyone else with VALID points to make seem like a bunch of raving lunatics that disagree with the logical aspects of the whole debate.
Logical fallacies are fun, and they're easy to use! Gamers are great at them, and they use it in their everyday lives. Problem is, some of us can see right through them and know what is being done. Not all of us were vaccinated with DNA destroying poison 30 times before the age of 10. So, some of us are from an era prior to the massive propaganda machine got its full grasp of the school system and decided to systematically reduce children's ability to use critical thinking skills to determine the validity of an argument.
That's OK. LIfe is Life. The Past is Not the Future, whatever that means!!
I don't give a shit about what is happening with Nintendo. I give a shit what I see in my "fellow" gamers. I see a mass of whiny, bitchy, self obsessed midget brains that fly off the handle at every turn, shitting into their diapers every time something doesn't go their way. THAT is just as much of a problem as anything Nintendo is fucking up at (which is plenty).
So, take a cue from the late great Michael Jackson and take a look at the Man in the Mirror.
Postscript: Example of why the influence of the internet is too much for your average drone is the perception of the gamecube. So, because the system was purple upon release (an obvious nod to the Super Nintendo, which should have been embraced) and because it looks toyish, there was a false perception that the system was not "hardcore", and it sucked. If I wasn't on the internet at the time, I would have thought most people would love the thing, since I was having a blast with dozens of amazing games that stick with me to this day.
Your average dummy is not capable of leaving the pack of tards, and therefore will succumb to peer pressure and blatantly disregard the console even before giving it a chance. Same thing happened with the Wii. Its got a goofy name, and there's lots of shovelware, so they claim is is a casual mini-game collection machine. Well, that really isn't true for me, because I have a large collection of "hardcore" 3rd party and AAA Nintendo 1st party games that I love dearly.
They stand side by side with great PS3 and Xbox 360 games. I also have 2 iPads, iPods, a 3DS and a PSP.
Guess what? They don't fight each other! They don't talk shit to each other. Leave that part to the idiot humans. They will cause the division, the unnecessary drama, and the ignorance.
Leave it to the undeveloped human mind to create problems when there is none.
You asstards can scream Gimmick! Mega Man Dead! No GAMEZ! all you want, but those of us with balance and peace in their mind are capable of taking all of these things in stride and enjoy these consoles and games nonetheless.
It's sad to see that so many kids these days are incapable of being happy with the massive amount of riches they really do have.
Postscript Pt. 2:
For Nintendo: You need to fire Reggie. You need to hire people that give a shit about games, and aren't just corporate stooges that play the part, but deep down don't give a flying fuck about video games. Drop the "all white" color of the Wii U, and give us some options in color right off the bat. Put all of your money and resources into making new IPs, and make games that gamers want. Club Nintendo is pretty awesome, so start using it to find out what sequels gamers want, and for the love of Zod, give us Xenoblade & The Last Story in HD as launch titles for the Wii U. I don't want them for the Wii anymore, if its possible to get them in HD.
Ultimately, the difficulties with the 3DS could be the best thing to happen to them in a long time. I find it amazing that people are getting 20 free games of a very high pedigree and they are STILL bitching. Amazing......
These arguments were old hat when I was having them with friends over the gamecube. Name a new first party IP for nintendo. Name a handheld you haven't had to buy more than once in it's lifecycle for some retarded reason. Name a quality third party game that hasn't died in europe or japan, that is exclusive to the platform. Name a game that's available on other platforms that's better on the wii. Name a game you downloaded from Nintendo's 3ds shop that wasn't a gameboy game you'd see piling in the plastic bin section at target.
We all need to demand better stuff from Nintendo. Just like we do from Sony and Microsoft, and we need to demand it until they get the point.
The PSVita has a good chance of beating the 3DS this time around, because it will be a much better system for the more "hardcore" games, and thus will more likely win the hearts of those who don't just use games as simple time wasters.
But it doesn't mean it won't ether. And I don’t know if saying that things have "changed" is accurate ether.
You can't honestly believe that in 30 years the gaming industry has been exactly the same, and only NOW it has suddenly become something else, do you? Things change every generation; heck, they change every year. But you know something else? There are still many constants, and Nintendo and its fan base happens to be one of them.
I don't think the argument was ever "X will do well because Y did" as you put it in the video. It was more off "X will probably end up like Y because the circumstances of both are very similar", and yeah, precedent is a very solid argument. You CAN argue they are not similar at all, but I don't think you can establish it as a fact.
I'm not of the belief the 3DS will do good due to the DS, but I do believe it will do good in the end, because Nintendo hasn't released a console they didn't support all the way since the Virtual Boy. And all the generations have been different, but they still turn out ok; they are not always the "market leader" when they do, but who the fuck cares about that?
You completely missed the point. He's saying you need tyo pay attention to the market the 3DS launched in to understand why they were worried enough to drop the price. That's his perspective.
@Shinta
I think the big difference with ipads and ipods is that the software runs cheap even thought the hardware is overpriced. Nintendo has a rep as a casual game company these days and that's the type of games ipad/ipod users play. They should be worried.
@BrainWasherAttendent
You only criticized the title but not the content of the video. Then you go off on a rant that has little to do with the topic. Did you even bother to watch it?
They need to get their shit together though. Stuff I read about the e-shop and potentially dead used game market worry me. With that said, I think Nintendo will be ok. The price drop even has me interested and I never adopt new hardware early.
But, who is using this argument anyway?
“You also have a lot of western journalists that never took handheld gaming seriously. They just didn’t. So for them, iOS portable gaming is all they know, and because they were not that interested in the PSP and DS, and never experienced the vast catalog of brilliant games, they just continue to ignorant.
If I’m a writer that never played much on the DS or PSP but I do own an iPhone, and because I don’t view handheld gaming as something of value, the iOS device is fantastic.
But, if you ever spent any real time playing the great PSP and DS games then you cannot make the mental gymnastics needed to believe the stuff being written. …”[/i]~ Ulairi
That's what frustrating me handheld gaming never gets the respect it deserves, and it's become incredibly frustrating to here people tell me they can get a better experience on their phone even though they never took portable gaming seriously before.
And to all the people saying that Nintendo hardware only sells because of it's software. Why is that a bad thing? Isn't the whole reason you buy a console for games? The Wii and DS has lots of high quality 3rd party games. The only reason anyone would think otherwise is [A] they never bothered to look up games or [B] the games just don't appeal to you, and in that case it doesn't necessarily mean that the console is bad. PS3, 360, and PC gaming don't appeal to everyone, but they are not by any means bad.
WAH WAH, ME WANT GAME NOW NOW!
That is basically your argument.
1.
Smartphone gaming means NOTHING, your FREE games are not worth playing compared to the best DS (and 3DS) games.
Smartphones games are a DISTRACTION, small content for a small price and crappy controls. It's a completely DIFFERENT market which takes away little from Nintendo.
Apple products are also VERY EXPENSIVE, and the 3DS has already dropped price.
2.
The DS is still selling LOADS. Most people don't even know the 3DS is a brand new machine. The transition is slow but the fact is they are BOTH selling.
There is a clear market for dedicated machines, be it consoles or handhelds.
3.
The 3DS is outselling what the original DS did at this point in time, this cannot be denied and bodes well.
4.
The PSP was a HUGE problem for the original DS and stole away a lot of attention.
The PSP launched the SAME month in Europe and Japan as the DS did. The 3DS on the other hand has six months to itself. That's a HUGE lead especially when the games arrive this holiday season.
5.
Iwata took a paycut because he WANTED to. He dictates his own pay and the Japanese are very conservative about how much money they take from their companies. This is not the case in the West, where they generally just take as much as they can get away with.
In case you haven't noticed, the economy is a total mess right now, we're almost headed for another crash. Get out of your bubble.
6.
Do you REALLY think that being able to download old games is going to SELL the 3DS? It's a feature, but FAR from the most important one.
Nintendo already said they are going to give you 20 games, and you just continually spit in their face.
NOBODY is saying that the 3DS is a guaranteed success, but the situation is FAR, FAR better for it than it was for the original DS. Games take a long time to make and they are coming, ultimately it's the NEW GAMES that are going to sell the system.
You are just spreading the idea of doom and gloom in the most pathetic, trolling manner possible.
It's been 4 months and that's nowhere near enough time to judge a system (surely the PS2 was HORRIBLE then...), have some freaking patience. Act like you actually care about your job because your hubris and sense of entitlement is quite disgusting.
The past is not the future, but to ignore history is retarded.
@Scissors: Agreed. They really aren't the same at all.
What are you talking about?
New IP? Out of like... 20 odd?
Xenoblade, which I'm getting this month here in the UK.
Handheld you haven't had to buy more than once?
My DS Lite, I didn't want to upgrade until the 3DS got into its stride. If other people want to upgrade that's their problem.
Quality third party game?
Just Dance. Scribblenauts. Dragon Quest, Boom Blox etc...
Third party game that's better on the Wii?
Pro Evolution Soccer, it controlled a lot better than the others. Other times the Wii doesn't get a chance to prove itself due to stupidity.
Game on the 3DS?
Link's Awakening, it's quite rare unfortunately.
I get his point, but it's absurd. The market is constantly changes, and Nintendo has been doing alright so far. This idea that the millions of gamers out there are going to be satisfied with app store crap. I recognize there are alot iphone/ipad owners out there, but who says they can't own an ipod and a 3DS? They're two completely different markets. There are people out there only interested in the quick fix Apple offers, but there are millions of gamers out there who crave something more. These Apple is going to destroy the consoles don't know what they're talking about. People who play games like Zelda, Uncharted, and Gears of war aren't going to wake up one day and be satisfied with a fart simulator, or Angry Birds.
I get his point, but it's absurd. The market is constantly changes, and Nintendo has been doing alright so far. This idea that the millions of gamers out there are going to be satisfied with app store crap. I recognize there are alot iphone/ipad owners out there, but who says they can't own an ipod and a 3DS? They're two completely different markets. There are people out there only interested in the quick fix Apple offers, but there are millions of gamers out there who crave something more. These Apple is going to destroy the consoles don't know what they're talking about. People who play games like Zelda, Uncharted, and Gears of war aren't going to wake up one day and be satisfied with a fart simulator, or Angry Birds.
a) Nintendo has put out more new IPs than Microsoft has this generation.
b) No-one is forcing you to buy anything. The PSP has had just as many incarnations as the DS has.
c) No More Heroes.
d) Star Wars: the Force Unleashed II was better reviewed on the Wii, and a lot of people preferred to use the Wii remote for those Tiger Woods games.
e) Shantae, Antipole, PictoBits, DV:Z ... If you're willing to filter through there's actually a decent amount of gems on both the eShop and WiiWare.
He cited a changing market climate and that if Nintendo didn't finally get their shit together, they may face a failure in the 3DS. He didn't say that "they would absolutely fail because Nintendo licks camel balls raaar".
"He cited a changing market climate and that if Nintendo didn't finally get their shit together, they may face a failure in the 3DS."
There are 2 problems that I see with this argument:
1) The market is always changing; it has been so for more than 30 years now. This isn't something that "suddenly happened" and caught Nintendo off guard; they have lived in changing market conditions for years.
2) "Finally get their shit together, or fail" is an aimless commentary on the situation; might as well say you need to breathe or you'll die. It is obvious.
So, if that's what he means to say, which I doubt, it's pretty much saying nothing that adds to the subject.
His initial point rings true at its face: you should not gauge future performance on past successes; except that you CAN create expectations based on them. That's what a precedent is.
No one is arguing that the 3DS WILL become the success the DS is just by virtue of being the DS's successor. There ARE those arguing that it makes more sense to expect it to be successful on the long run, based on the company's TRACK RECORD of dealing with this kind of situation in the past, and that includes the DS, a system that no one in the industry believed would be successful ether.
I don’t understand why this is so hard to understand by some people.
We're not just basing it on the video, but countless posts of his since the 3DS's release. He's using a straw man argument. No one is saying the reason the 3DS is going to succeed if it does is because of past failures, we're saying Nintendo's been through this before so don't be so quick to write it off. Saying the 3DS is doomed this early is pretty alarmist and ignorant.

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