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The battle of the E3 2012 predictions! - Destructoid




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The battle of the E3 2012 predictions!


4:00 PM on 05.24.2012
The battle of the E3 2012 predictions! photo



A few years ago, when I went to a psychic for my annual E3 predictions post, the results were fascinating. Using her specific set of otherworldly skills, the psychic managed to make some fairly accurate predictions about what would happen at that year’s giant videogame expo. It got me thinking: Wow. Maybe some of the most unlikely candidates could make more accurate predictions than a professional videogame analyst.

After this my annual E3 predictions were born. The year after the psychic, I went to the L.A. Zoo to see what the animals thought. And then last year I took a wonderful and ultimately very moving trip to a local animal shelter to have the dogs and cats make some predictions of their own (and get adopted in the process!).

The one problem with all those predictions, though: I never really had a real-life analyst to compare the final results to. Sure, I assumed the animals and psychic made some great predictions, but who knew if they would actually beat an analyst in a head-to-head competition?

So that’s what I decided to do this year. Stage an actual head-to-head competition. A battle of the E3 2012 predictions, if you will. A competition between five completely different contestants: a professional videogame analyst, a hardcore gamer, a toddler, a horse, and a coin.

Fifty questions. Five contestants. Only one winner. Who will make the best E3 predictions? Time to place your bets!

This is how everything worked this year.

A few weeks ago, I asked you, the community, for a list of yes or no questions relating to this year’s E3. From the list of hundreds of great questions, I narrowed them down to fifty of the most varied. (Sorry if your question didn't get selected. There were so many good ones that it was almost luck of the draw!)

Once the questions were picked, I took the same fifty questions to each of the contestants and had them answer. The most important rule in answering the questions was making sure the answers applied to E3 specifically. Meaning: If the question was “Will Sony announce the PlayStation 4?” answering “yes” would mean this announcement will happen during E3. A “yes” did not mean “yes ... eventually.” All of the answers had to be about things that would or would not happen at this year’s upcoming E3.

After E3 is over, I will calculate the results to see who made the most accurate predictions! Who will win? The videogame analyst? The hardcore gamer? The toddler? The horse? Or the coin?

Let’s get things started with the introductions ...

Jesse Divnich is a friend of Destructoid and one of the most successful and admired videogame analysts in the industry. He also happens to be a ridiculously nice guy. When asked to be a part of this predictions posts, Jesse was not only happy to help, he was even offering suggestions on how to make the post even more fun and interesting for the readers.

So, yeah, he is a great guy and I can’t thank him enough for lending his extensive videogame knowledge to these predictions.

OKAY, ENOUGH WITH THIS SENTIMENTAL STUFF! IT’S TIME TO GET SERIOUS!

How did Jesse answer the questions? Will he get the most predictions correct and emerge victorious?

 

While analysts have a more inside look into the videogame industry, it can be argued that hardcore gamers follow games and the news that surrounds them just as closely ... if from a more outside perspective.

Going into this post, I knew I wanted to have a serious gamer involved. To fill the role of the “hardcore gamer,” I reached out to Bill Platt, a dedicated Destructoid community member since 2007 who goes by the name ChillyBilly on the site. Bill not only plays videogames, he is an impressive collector of games as well, owning over 1300 games, 30 consoles, and over 30 random handheld machines. Unbelievably impressive. It goes without saying that he knows a lot about videogames.

But does he know enough to make the best E3 predictions? <dramatic music>

 

Sadie is only two-years-old (she is turning three during this year’s E3!) and she already loves monster movies, Jaws, Spider-Man, Batman, and riding merry-go-rounds. So, she basically loves all the same things I do. Especially merry-go-rounds.

When it comes to videogames, Sadie may not have the most experience, but she does love playing with her dad’s iPhone. I swear, she could probably school me in Angry Birds if given the chance. Seriously, girl knows how to use the blue birds better than I do!

Luckily, Sadie is talking, so asking her the prediction questions was easy -- no need to translate baby-speak! She just answered yes or no to every question that was asked, obviously basing all her answers on the videogame buzz she hears about in all the hottest toddler social circles.

As you will see when we get to the questions, Sadie likes to answer "yes" a lot. But this optimism and positivity is completely infectious!

All jokes aside, Sadie is my new BFF.

 

I can’t stop looking at the above picture without thinking that Ciel the horse looks so much like Jeff Winger as the emo magician in this year's season finale of Community. I seriously can’t not see it.

Ciel is a male Tennessee Walker horse that lives on a ranch in the mountains of Santa Clarita, California. To say the area is beautiful is an understatement. Take a look at this picture:

Yeah, that’s where emo Jeff Winger horse lives. Amazing.

Like with the animals I have worked with in the past, getting yes or no answers out of Ciel was a little tricky (but so much fun!). For some answers, Ciel would stomp his hooves on the ground to answer yes. Adorable and very confident. For other questions, he would choose between two apples or two carrots. One piece of food being "yes," the other being "no."

Rule of thumb: When questioning a horse about E3 predictions, try not to bring a plastic bag. They do not like those. My God, they do not like those ...

 

They say -- and when I say "they" I guess I mean ... scientists? -- that a monkey throwing darts at a dartboard can make just as accurate and lucrative investment picks as someone who actually works on the stock market. Since I didn't have a monkey handy (he escaped, okay?!), I figured a coin would be the next best thing. Yup, a simple flip of a coin. Heads for "yes," tails for "no."

And the coin I used to recreate this process of random chance was special. The nickel was given to me as change when I bought a lunch at In-N-Out. If that's not a pretty great coin, I don't know what is! Pressed, cut, and polished in 2005, I have no idea what happened to the nickel before it was given to me as change, but I like to think it was used in some of the most awesome ways possible.

Maybe it was used to buy a lottery ticket that won someone millions? Maybe Peter Dinklage popped it into a parking meter before going to see Toy Story 3? Maybe Miyamoto himself threw it in a fountain and made a wish after his legendary appearance at E3 2006?

Yup, I am going to believe that all of this stuff happened.

You are cooler than I will ever be, coin.

 

Now that the introductions are complete, let’s get to the actual questions!

As mentioned, there are fifty questions. Each one of the contestants answered the questions with a simple yes or a no -- or, in the case of the horse and coin, a hearty hoof stomp or spinning plunk on the top of my desk.

How will each contestant answer? Who do you think will be the most accurate? Can I delay this any longer? Let's do this!

 

Hohojirozame asks: Will Dark Cloud 3 be announced?
The analyst says: No.
The gamer says: Nope. Unfortunately.
The toddler says: Yes.
The horse says: Yes.
The coin says: No.

mmortalPaladin12 asks: Will Half-Life 3 be announced?
The analyst says: No.
The gamer says: Yes. My gut tells me no, but I think this year will be different.
The toddler says: Yes.
The horse says: No.
The coin says: Yes.

The Silent Protagonist asks: Is Retro Studios working on Metroid Prime 4 for the Wii U?
The analyst says: Yes.
The gamer says: No.
The toddler says: Yes.
The horse says: No.
The coin says: No.

Professor Wright asks: Will there be a PlayStation Vita price drop?
The analyst says: No.
The gamer says: Nope.
The toddler says: Yes.
The horse says: Yes.
The coin says: Yes.

OneRed asks: Will Mirror's Edge 2 be announced?
The analyst says: No.
The gamer says: No.
The toddler says: Yes.
The horse says: Yes.
The coin says: Yes.

GoofierBrute asks: Will Pikmin 3 be a Wii U day-one launch title?
The analyst says: No.
The gamer says: Within the first six months of the Wii U release, sure. Day one launch title? Nope.
The toddler says: Yes.
The horse says: No.
The coin says: No.


I found this fan art of Jesse Divnich online. It is beyond amazing.

tehTommy asks: Will Rayman Legends be playable during the show?
The analyst says: Yes.
The gamer says: Yep!
The toddler says: Yes.
The horse says: Yes.
The coin says: No.

fmaguy91 asks: Will Microsoft announce their debut in the handheld market?
The analyst says: Windows Mobile 8, but no dedicated handheld.
The gamer says: Absolutely not.
The toddler says: Yes.
The horse says: No.
The coin says: No.

MuddBstrd asks: Will Square-Enix announce a new Chrono Trigger sequel?
The analyst says: Yes.
[Editor’s note: I will kiss you on the mouth, Jesse.]
The gamer says: No.
The toddler says: Yes.
The horse says: No.
The coin says: Yes.

MrJoe asks: Will Atlus localize Devil Summoner: Soul Hackers for US audiences?
The analyst says: Yes.
The gamer says: No.
The toddler says: Yes.
[Editor’s note: I love your constant positivity, Sadie!]
The horse says: Yes.
The coin says: Yes.

arkane9 asks: Will Final Fantasy XV be announced?
The analyst says: Yes.
The gamer says: Nope.
The toddler says: No.
The horse says: Yes.
The coin says: Yes.

Kyle Malone asks: Will The Last Guardian get a release date?
The analyst says: No.
The gamer says: No.
The toddler says: Yes.
The horse says: Yes.
[Editor’s note: The horse gave a very sassy look during this answer. I wonder what that means!]
The coin says: No.

Noir asks: Will there be any mention of Persona 5?
The analyst says: No.
The gamer says: Nope.
The toddler says: Yes.
The horse says: No.
The coin says: Yes.

Handy asks: Will they announce a Final Fantasy VII remake?
The analyst says: Remake, yes; announcement, no.
[Editor’s note: Since these questions relate to what will happen at E3, we will take this as a no.]
The gamer says: No.
The toddler says: Yes.
The horse says: No.
The coin says: Yes.

Azzurus asks: Will Beyond Good & Evil 2 be shown?
The analyst says: Yes.
[Editor’s note: Amazing!]
The gamer says: Yes.
[Editor’s note: AMAZING!]
The toddler says: Yes.
[Editor’s note: AHHHHHHHHHH!]
The horse says: Yes.
[Editor’s note: OMG YES!]
The coin says: Yes.
[Editor’s note: MY GOD I LOVE THESE ANSWERS!]


Not pictured: A ridiculous amount of amazing games.

Zwiki asks: Will the Wii U upscale Wii games to high-definition?
The analyst says: No.
The gamer says: I wish ... but no.
The toddler says: Yes.
The horse says: No.
The coin says: Yes.

Akeeko asks: Will Final Fantasy XIII Versus ever get a release date?
The analyst says: No.
The gamer says: Possibly, but not at E3.
The toddler says: Yes.
The horse says: No.
The coin says: Yes.

Vodshuggah asks: Will we see a new Shadow Complex?
The analyst says: No.
The gamer says: No.
The toddler says: Yes.
The horse says: Yes.
The coin says: No.

Jesse Satterwhite asks: Will Nintendo change the name of the Wii U?
The analyst says: No.
The gamer says: Absolutely not.
The toddler says: Yes.
The horse says: Yes.
[Editor's note: This just in, Nintendo's next system named "Toddler Horse Box!"]
The coin says: No.

King Chrono asks: Will Jonathan Blow reveal more of The Witness?
The analyst says: No.
The gamer says: Yes.
The toddler says: Yes.
The horse says: Yes.
The coin says: No.

SuperMonk4Ever asks: Will there be a playable build of Metal Gear Rising: Revengeance?
The analyst says: Yes.
The gamer says: Yes.
The toddler says: No.
The horse says: No.
The coin says: No.
[Editor's note: It looks like this question might already be answered!] 

siddartha85 asks: Will there be a SOPA-related boycott or reduced attendance?
The analyst says: No.
The gamer says: Nope.
The toddler says: No.
The horse says: No.
The coin says: Yes.

Evil Champ asks: Will Fire Emblem 3DS be released outside of Japan?
The analyst says: Yes.
The gamer says: Yes.
The toddler says: Yes.
The horse says: No.
[Editor's note: *raises fist at horse*]
The coin says: Yes.

Regnier asks: Will Rare announce a new entry in the Banjo-Kazooie series?
The analyst says: No.
The gamer says: Not at E3, no.
The toddler says: Yes.
The horse says: Yes.
[Editor's note: *pets horse lightly and apologizes for earlier outbreak*]
The coin says: No.


Toy Story Band-Aid. So cute.

WorldClassGamer asks: Will Ellie be a playable character in The Last of Us?
The analyst says: No.
The gamer says: No.
The toddler says: Yes.
The horse says: Yes.
The coin says: No.

UNEMPLOYED JEDI asks: Will we see Call of Duty: Black Ops II on the Wii U?
The analyst says: No.
The gamer says: Yes.
The toddler says: Yes.
The horse says: Yes.
The coin says: No.

Danzflor asks: Will Kinect Sports 3 be announced?
The analyst says: Kinect Sports/mini-compilation, yes; Kinect Sports 3, no.
[Editor’s note: Officially making this one a no.]
The gamer says: Yes.
The toddler says: Yes.
The horse says: Yes.
The coin says: Yes.

Gamegodtre asks: Will Namco Bandai release the PSP game Puella Madoka in the west?
The analyst says: No.
The gamer says: Nope.
The toddler says: Yes.
The horse says: No.
The coin says: No.

Red Boss asks: Will Tekken X Street Fighter be playable?
The analyst says: Yes.
The gamer says: No.
The toddler says: No.
The horse says: Yes.
The coin says: No.

Kylehyde asks: Will a Castlevania game be announced for the 3DS?
The analyst says: Yes.
The gamer says: Yes!
The toddler says: Yes.
The horse says: Yes.
The coin says: No.
[Editor’s note: It looks like this info may have already been leaked, but will an announcement be made at E3?]

Scissors asks: Will Pandora's Tower be localized for North America?
The analyst says: No.
The gamer says: Yes.
The toddler says: Yes.
The horse says: No.
The coin says: No.

Sparkkirby3 asks: Will Professor Layton vs. Ace Attorney be localized?
The analyst says: Yes, but no announcement.
[Editor’s note: Since he thinks this won’t be announced at E3, it’s a no.]
The gamer says: No.
The toddler says: Yes.
The horse says: Yes.
The coin says: Yes.

Meryc asks: Will we finally get the release date for the HD edition of Final Fantasy X?
The analyst says: No.
The gamer says: Not at E3.
The toddler says: Yes.
The horse says: No.
The coin says: Yes.


#sixseasonsandamovie

Kyle Malone asks: Will Overstrike be shown?
The analyst says: Yes.
The gamer says: Oh, for sure. Yes.
The toddler says: Yes.
The horse says: Yes.
The coin says: Yes.

Noir asks: Will Dead Space 3 get a reveal trailer?
The analyst says: Yes.
The gamer says: Yes.
The toddler says: Yes.
The horse says: Yes.
The coin says: No.

JohnApocalypse asks: Will Sony announce Killzone 4?
The analyst says: No.
The gamer says: My gut tells me no, but I am going to go with yes.
The toddler says: Yes.
The horse says: Yes.
The coin says: Yes.

Superluigi6 asks: Will Microsoft announce the new Xbox/Kinect?
The analyst says: No.
The gamer says: Nope.
The toddler says: No.
The horse says: No.
The coin says: Yes.
[Editor’s note: The coin kept falling out of my hands during this question. It almost wouldn’t let me answer!]

Someperson asks: Will Paper Mario 3DS get a 2012 release date?
The analyst says: Yes.
The gamer says: YES!
The toddler says: Yes.
The horse says: Yes.
The coin says: No.
[Editor’s note: Damn you, coin!]

CoruptAI125 asks: Will Microsoft talk about the $99 Xbox?
The analyst says: Yes.
The gamer says: Yeah.
The toddler says: Yes.
The horse says: Yes.
The coin says: Yes.

Conspiracyguy asks: Will Pokemon Black and White 2 be playable?
The analyst says: No.
The gamer says: No.
The toddler says: Yes.
The horse says: Yes.
The coin says: No.

PrinceHeir asks: Will Hideo Kojima go to E3 this year?
The analyst says: Yes.
The gamer says: Yep!
The toddler says: Yes.
The horse says: Yes.
The coin says: No.

SlyDante asks: Will Sly Cooper: Thieves in Time be playable?
The analyst says: Yes.
The gamer says: Yes.
The toddler says: Yes.
The horse says: Yes.
The coin says: Yes.
[Editor’s note: Can’t wait!]


In Dtoid we trust.

Projectexodus asks: Will the Nintendo Network be subscription-based?
The analyst says: No.
The gamer says: No.
The toddler says: Yes.
The horse says: Yes.
The coin says: Yes.

Fluterguy asks: Will there be a new version of the 3DS?
The analyst says: Yes (this includes new colors); no if we are talking "Lite" versions.
[Editor’s note: Gonna’ give this one a yes, as the question is general enough to include new colors.]
The gamer says: No.
The toddler says: Yes.
The horse says: Yes.
The coin says: Yes.

Kittenwithbeer asks: Will the PlayStation 4 be revealed?
The analyst says: No.
The gamer says: Nope.
The toddler says: Yes.
The horse says: No.
The coin says: No.

Regnier asks: Will PC mech game Hawken be announced for consoles?
The analyst says: No.
The gamer says: No.
The toddler says: Yes.
The horse says: No.
The coin says: No.

yoshi42 asks: Will there be a Demon's/Dark Souls game for the PS Vita?
The analyst says: Yes.
The gamer says: Nope.
The toddler says: Yes.
The horse says: No.
The coin says: No.

tmak94 asks: Will a new Zelda game be announced for the 3DS?
The analyst says: Yes.
The gamer says: Yes.
The toddler says: Yes.
The horse says: No.
The coin says: No.

Sir Tobbii asks: Will Shenmue III be announced?
The analyst says: No.
The gamer says: Nope.
The toddler says: Yes.
The horse says: No.
The coin says: Yes.

Sparkkirby3 asks: Will there be any news on the next Smash Bros. title?
The analyst says: Yes.
The gamer says: Yes.
The toddler says: Yes.
The horse says: Yes.
The coin says: No.

Since this is a long list of questions and answers, I also created a handy little chart with all the information in one concise, easy-to-read place. Feel free to check it out! Or, if you want to be the coolest person ever, print it out and enter your own guesses! If you go the extra mile and laminate it and wear it as a necklace during the week of E3, I may very well marry you.

With all of this -- whew! -- this year's E3 predictions post comes to a close.

I just wanted to thank everyone again who helped me with this feature.

Thank you to Jesse Divnich for, well, everything.

Thank you to Bill Platt for not only assisting with the predictions, but helping me with the awesome header image.

Thank you to Ken and Mary, Sadie’s parents, for letting their adorable daughter Sadie participate.

Thank you to Orion (best name EVER!) for allowing me to meet his incredible (and incredibly sweet!) horse Ciel.

Thank you to that nickel, a coin I hope to use to buy something really great in the near future. (MORE IN-N-OUT!)

And thanks to all of you for reading! I appreciate all the support every year with these E3 predictions posts. You're the best!

 

-----

Now it’s your turn to chime in! Who do you think will win the battle of the E3 2012 predictions? Do you think the analyst will take it? Are you rooting for the gamer? Does the toddler have a chance with her almost universal "yes" answers? Will the horse be a -- ahem -- dark horse (please, you know I had to do it)? Or will the coin end up winning it all?

We will know the results in less than two weeks! Make sure to check back with Destructoid after E3 for the announcement of the winner!

Who will it be? Place your bets! And may the odds be ever in your favor.






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