Electronics titan Samsung has given the Sony-adopted Blu-ray format what it believes to be an adequate life expectancy, one that would not see it even last the PS3's life cycle. Giving the format five more years, Samsung claimed that Blu-ray will be a success, but a fleeting one.
"I think it [Blu-ray] has 5 years left, I certainly wouldn't give it 10" stated Samsung's Andy Griffiths. "It's going to be huge. We are heavily back-ordered at the moment." Griffiths believes that 2008 is Blu-ray's year, but even though he expects it to be "huge," he just doesn't think it can last to see the end of the PS3's oft-mentioned ten year cycle.
"In 2012 we will be in a true HD world," stated the UK director of consumer electronics. "Everything from your television to your camcorder will be offering you pictures in high-definition, and we plan to offer you that HD world from all angles."
What do you think? Does Blu-ray have staying power, or in this age where things become all-too-obsolete, all-too-quickly, will the format fail to see the end of the PS3? What does this mean for Talladega Nights or indeed, any of Will Ferrell's supremely sublime back catalog of moviemaking mischief? Find out next time on Hogan Knows Best!
Jim Sterling serves as reviews editor for Destructoid.com, head of the Podtoid podcast, and produces a number of news stories, original features, one-of-a-kind videos. With his passionate argumentative style, controversial opinions, harsh delivery, and dedication to brutal honesty Sterling is a name that you can't help but recognize.
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Contest:
6:54 AM on 09.04.2008
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No, i didnt have anythnig meaningful to say :(
I still think it's too early to tell. These companies need to come up with some kind of long term way to keep movies before they can get rid of physical media. I won't buy a movie on a console because I have no confidence that I'll still have it once I move away from that console. As consumers we're clearly not allowed to make backups - there needs to be some middle ground reached to get that consumer confidence.
So 2018 i'd say before a newer format is common place, which is 2yrs more than the PS3 10yr cycle ending in 2016.
If the PS3 does have a 10yr cycle than bluray will die with it at the same time.... However I do not think the PS3 has another 8yrs left before a PS4 arrives.
True some may shy away from the console movie purchase because they are afraid they won't be able to take it with them to their next console - but i'm certain sony and microsoft have solutions for that. Plus, movie studios will love the cut costs of not having to create the discs and their cases.
Why cant we just have films produced on SD cards in cool boxes with books i can read while i have a dump!
I will cry when the physical format dies...cry!!
Im not pro bluray until the players become 100 quid thats upgradable!!! But i love Physical media, want something to show for my dollar...errr i mean Pound Sterling!
So BR is here to stay
Speaking on Blu-Ray though, I really don't think it will last. I've not been keeping a eye on what the prices are, and the percentages of DVD to Blu-Ray, but I just don't think it offers enough of an improvement over DVD.
VHS to DVD? HUGE improvement, on a bunch of different levels. Blu-ray? Higher definition, which you need a HDTV to see...and, that's bout it. There just doesn't seem to be much that Blu-ray can do that is a massive leap over DVD that would inspire me to rebuy all of my collection.
That's not speaking to the fact also that not everyone adopts when a lifecycle is started. What, we're three years into the PS3 now, and still there is a HUGE base of PS2 users that haven't upgraded.
I expect Blu-ray to be around for quite a while.
I totally agree with you comments and have been gunned down several times for saying it!!
There was rumour of a Toshiba dvd player with a cell chip that made your DVD's look awesome but its not out yet...just some crappy upscaling one!
There is a little battle that is going to start and I'm waiting to see what the internet services do... Comcast limiting their services to 250G, which is still a lot, is still a limit.. Cablevision in NY has been doing this for a while and I'm sure TW isn't too far off the wagon...
Either way, the format is nice for games since we don't need multiple discs (as we can see 360 starting to run into problems) other than that, the price is still too high and until they completely do away with DVDs, why buy a comedy movie for 25$ when you can get it for 5$ in the DVD bargain bin?
and for the record, I love my box art so I'm all for formats staying... HDDs are still too unreliable anyway...
The bitrate for BluRay movies is too high for digital distribution to be competitive. Not even HD cable can reproduce the quality of a BluRay disc - the lines are too slow. The Internet as we know it in the U.S. would have to be completely rewired with Fiber Optic Cable or better just to entertain a similar level of quality.
This doesn't even count the fact that no cable or digitally distributed media approaches anything better than 1080i. Not to mention that most people still don't have a computer and/or internet connection fast enough to stream psuedo-HD video. Also, some people just prefer physical media.
10-15 years sounds about right to me. The only thing that I see killing BluRay is DVD. While HDTV's will start selling more, it will take a lot of education to get people to upgrade past DVD.
In Europe I don't think Bluray's year will be 2008, not while movies are 50 to 60 US dollars, yes up to £30.
Hollywood has been remastering all their movies in this resolution & the new Red HD camera recording at that resolution already for a fraction of what studio's spend on renting a Panavision. Add in the fact that the price will continue to be reduced w/ every new iteration, it will replace TV cameras soon enough making 4k2k the new standard & Blu-ray incapable of distribution of media. A new standard will need to be created. I don't think physical media is disappearing though. Eventually there will probably be crystals storing information.
I do not see online distribution being mainstream at all, and I will not support anything of the like and already see a bunch of people thinking the same way.
Will they lower prices so each movie is like $2 because there is no inventory to hold, no leases or employees to pay to create DVD cases..etc, no shipping costs involved, no importing fees to pay, no overhead costs, no gas surcharges...etc?
FUCK NO they wont lower the price! They will charge us the same roughly $20 amount and be laughing as they look at their profits skyrocket because of the huge increase per unit sold.
Something that you pay for to stream off the net or just download onto your computer does not give me a sense of ownership at all and I think that has a lot to do with why people resort to pirating stuff.
Anybody who says downloadable stuff is wrong. People like physical copies, and they don't want to wait for however long it takes to download an HD movie.
4K2K has been in production for over a year. It's just ridiculously expensive ATM & there's very little source material at that resolution. Remember how ridiculously expensive HDTVs used to be though & how they existed before HD DVD or Blu-ray?
As soon as OLEDs get cheaper 4k2k will become mainstream led by network TV signals. Just like current HDTVs. Network TV broadcasted HD before any HD formats were ever finalized. 4k2k cameras will rapidly overtake current 1080/720 cameras. Why when OLEDs come out? Because they will be as thin as a fingernail & have contrast besting plasma screens. They know people aren't going to spend that much $ after already having bought a HDTV less than 10 years ago unless there's something obviously advanced about it. Just like how most consumers still refer to HDTVs as flat screen TVs. or Thin TVs.
The only reason SDTV lasted so long was the technology wasnt there for HD. The same technology which made HD possible can be scaled for 4k2k & OLED already exists, just not a way to make it cheaply.
The only reason it would last longer is if the media companies wanted to milk it as much as possible to create more double buys when whatever replaces it comes out.