In the wake of fresh rumors concerning an HD Nintendo console, industry analyst Michael "balls of oatmeal" Pachter has complained that Nintendo has lost customers due to the lateness of such a console, but that it still has a chance to stay on top.
"I think the right time for the console was in front of Kinect and Move, and think that Nintendo has forever lost one customer for each Kinect and Move unit sold," he said. "That means they should have launched the Wii 2 in Fall 2009, and at the latest in Fall 2010, so a launch in 2011 is late. With that said, it's never 'too' late, since they can retain the lion's share of the market by inducing current Wii owners to upgrade, and by capturing undecided consumers who have either not yet purchased a console or who have not yet bought Kinect or Move.
"It's highly likely that there is a Wii 2 reveal at E3. If they don't do it this year, then it might be too late next year."
Pachter's comments are echoed by other analysts, all of them urging Nintendo to act fast with a reveal or risk losing its last window of opportunity. 2012 looks like the magic year, with a potential announcement at E3 2011. If Nintendo doesn't stick to this, it could risk losing its market dominance, according to the pundits.
Is a 2012 Wii 2 launch too late? [Eurogamer]
Jim Sterling serves as reviews editor for Destructoid.com, head of the Podtoid podcast, and produces a number of news stories, original features, one-of-a-kind videos. With his passionate argumentative style, controversial opinions, harsh delivery, and dedication to brutal honesty Sterling is a name that you can't help but recognize.
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Contest:
1:40 PM on 04.15.2011 | 
And the whole "easir to port Xbox games" thing is that Xbox owners don't want ported Xbox games on their WiiHD, that's why they bought an Xbox.
HASN'T HE BEEN SAYING THAT FOR THREE YEARS?!
Pundits are dumb.
I guess that even a broken clock can tell the right time twice a day, but it still feels like cheating.
Nintendo just can't win. Some people complain its too soon, others complain its too late. Nintendo is going to do, whatever Nintendo wants to do. They're the market leader, so if they want the next generation to start in 2012, than that's when its starts. Its up to both Sony and Microsoft to scramble to catch up now. They're just catching up to motion controls Version 1.0 right now, so Nintendo will bring Version 2.0 with HD graphics. Nintendo will once again be back to being one step ahead of them. Let the copying begin!
The Wii came out in 2006, lacked a hard drive, lacked HD graphics, had weak hardware and was ripped apart by the hardcore community as "too casual." Wii HD in 2009 would have been the ultimate "shut the hell up, you got no excuses now!" to EVERYONE including developers. (Remember, "The Wii is two Gamecubes duct-taped together"?)
Anyway, I'm still not sure how I feel about these Wii HD shenanigans. There could still be plenty of life left in the original Wii. Skyward Sword looks completely awesome, and if Nintendo pulled their heads out of their collective arses and bothered to port over those cool looking Japanese games (Last Story, Xenoblade, Pandora's Tower, etc.) then they'd probably make a tidy profit off that and make a lot of customers happy.
Plus, like many other people have mentioned, I have a genuine concern that Skyward Sword might get delayed just to be released on the new console simultaneously, like Twilight Princess was (that's if this is even true).
Yes, because splitting your user-base further by producing a powerful console alongside your regular console is great business sense.
Whatever is about to be announced will be the Wii's successor, and I have no doubts whatsoever that Microsoft is getting ready to announce something in 2012 for 2013. We've hit the end of this generation's cycle right now. All the best, most elaborate games are here and the consoles are starting to show their age as developers have stopped focusing on discovering what limits the systems possess and started focusing on how to get a bit more within the limits of the console.
I wouldn't be surprised to find that Nintendo continues to focus on the "relatively low power with cheap, reliable technology" aspect. However, whatever is released will very likely be close to par with whatever the next Xbox is, given the lack of decent third party support this generation.
Sony and MS catching up? That's as laughable a statement as I've ever heard.
The Wii at the time of it's launch was unique. It had a selling point. What is the selling point of this console? That it is in HD? Who cares? Sony and MS both have better or equal - and for MS highly differentiated - motion controls. AND they actually have third party support.
Nintendo's only advantage is their first party lineup which is what they've been relying upon for years and years and years. And to top it all off now, Nintendo are starting from scratch with a console that isn't going to be much more powerful than what's already on the market and with an inferior online services.
Just because the Wii sold a ton doesn't mean that this one will. You've seen how that presumption backfired on Sony coming into this gen. Nintendo isn't immune to that and I highly suspect consumers are going to take one look at it and realize that what they already have is just as good and just wait for what Sony and MS have waiting in the wings a couple years down the line.
Actually, doesn't it sound like Nintendo is trying to emulate Sony and Microsoft? I bet it has an HDD, a new optical drive, improved online networking, and we know it will be HD. There is even speculation that Nintendo is considering Blu-Ray. The guts sound like a 360. Nintendo is trying to recapture the core gamer, and they're doing it by looking at what Microsoft and Sony have done. If they go for the 'media center' approach, and try to weld casual and hardcore together, then isn't that what the PS3 and 360 are doing already?
Sure, there will be a Nintendo gimmick tacked on, that's a given, but this 'new' console might just be a late edition to the current gen party, especially if most of the games are multiplatform.
That, and Nintendo titles are still the only titles that sell on Nintendo consoles.
Also I would like to say for the record that even though I hate using the phrase, I could be classified as a "hardcore gamer", and I have absolutely loved my Wii more than my other consoles this generation. But hey that's just me.
Nintendo games are all 2D platformers, or Mario, or Zelda. The Nintendo development teams are still stuck with PS2 era technology and wouldnt be able to justify an HD console anyway. Honestly all Nintendo has going for it are the Nintendo fans now.
Well than you didn't read it right. I said catching up to motion controls. Can you actually sit there and deny that both Sony and Microsoft are not just catching up to Nintendo's motion control bandwagon right now? MOVE, and Kinect say hi. Maybe you didn't hear the latest rumor, but next-gen.biz are now saying - system retains motion control, with capabilities that are “better than Move”.
So with Nintendo stepping ahead again in the motion department and being full on par with graphics they're back to being one step ahead again. How is that hard to understand? You might not like the fact that the Wii is the market leader right now, but its a fact and both Sony and Microsoft are scrambling to catch up to Nintendo.
Does Pachter realizes how many Wii's have sold in the past two years since he "predicted" the Wii HD.
Not that I'm saying it's too early for a new Nintendo console, I think 2012 feels right. I just don't get why Pachter thinks Nintendo should have left all of that Money on the table by releasing a Wii successor in 2009. That would've been dumb.
The Wii isn't the market leader, that's why they're building a new console. Because a product has SOLD the most does not mean it is SELLING the most. The Wii is in second place over the 360 by a slight margin for 2011, but it has dropped a huge amount of market share, and sales are declining at a pretty steep rate. If the trend continues, and there is little reason to believe they won't, then the Wii sales will continue to tumble until the holiday season. Of course, a price reduction and some major title releases could change that, but we'll have to wait and see on that.
Selling the most systems, means its the market leader. Who cares if they sold them to cats and dogs, they're still the market leader, whether you like it, or not. Do you people live in a fantasy world, where you can just make up bullshit excuse to discredit things? The damn thing has sold over 86 million units, so who cares who is buying it. A freaking sales, is a sales. A casual video game players money, is just as good as your, or mine is.
I actually read most of the first sentence before I read the name Pachter.
Seriously, why are we giving this guy recognition? Any predictions he makes are varying levels of wrong, and any of the facts he delivers, we can find from another source.
Market leader with number of console sales, sure. But not market leader to any game development companies.
I'm a PC gamer first, so I have no problem admitting that everything borrows from PC tech. Everything borrows from everything else, and often improves on it. I just hate the "X company is better because it did Y first!" line of thinking. Nintendo innovates, but they also borrow what is successful for other companies. If not, they'd still be using carts with built-in memory. This is the way it's supposed to work.
Wow dude you really need to get your facts straight. Since when does winning or loosing a month, or two to the 360 in America, mean that the Wii has lost its entire market leadership for the past 4+ years? It sold almost 300,000 units in America last month, so its not exactly in dire-straights here. The Wii is not selling like 20,000 a month here, so its doing fine. Yes the 360 is doing better, but the PS3 is doing even less, so what does that say about the PS3, is it dead?
Nintendo is putting out a new console in 2012, because guess why? Its time for them to put out a new console, because the Wii will be 6 years old by then. So if the Wii really was as dead as you claim it to be, than they'd be putting out a new console this year, not next. Price drops can spur Wii sales and oh look a rumored price drop is suppose to be happening next month. But don't let any facts, get in the way of your good story!
No one can really take Nintendo seriously. Calling them a market leader is misleading at best.
So they sold a lot of consoles. They aren't getting software support. The reason that PS2 could be called a definitive market leader was because it had everything. It was killing everything in sales and software was pouring out of that console's every orifice.
No one is really what I would consider a market leader right now. And motion controls aren't appealing or doing much of anything beyond constantly getting hyped and then revealing that no one outside of a few minuscule developers ever provide a piece of definitive software that actually benefits from motion controls.
And how many of those consumers who bought the Wii are actually going to run out and grab the next one? They're probably perfectly happy with the Wii (because they probably barely touch it anyway) or they have it packed away not being used at all. And while that certainly isn't everyone, I'd wager people actually playing the Wii that much are no more in terms of size than the 360 or PS3 install base. And they probably own one or both of the HD consoles already.
So all this is will end up being is Nintendo falling back into the same old rut where they only have first party titles while MS and Sony jump another full gen ahead and take the vast majority of the developers with them.
The only possible way I'd ever look to Nintendo is if they could bring the PS2 JRPG era back into focus. And I'm not even sure that that would actually entice me.
Stop gnashing your teeth, it's not like I'm dogging your precious Wii. I said it was in 2nd place OVER the 360, and that's WORLDWIDE. I never said it was dead. It's a fact that it's dropped a huge amount of market share, though, which is what manufacturers and retailers care about. No business lives in the past. By your logic, the PS2 is the market leader.
Stop being so sensitive about an electronic device.
Didn't Pachter at various times say that a)the wii was doomed and b)the playstation 3 was doomed?
...and other tomfoolery?
how about a 25-35 year old video game analyst that I can actually relate to, please.
Balls of oatmeal. Genius.
You're right about flash memory sticks, but it's only in terms of recent technology. It was certainly not as good an option as optical media once was previously.
If I'm not mistaken, Sony's NGP is supposed to replace physical drives with flash cards, which will come preloaded with games. This is a MUCH better option for a handheld device.
Also, I've read that people who've used an SSD in their PS3 have had fantastic results. Seems like that would be the future of console gaming.
I am disappoint, Mr. Sterling. >:(
Who says they had to split the customer base? Its not exactly hard to code games to automatically load the HD graphics of a game when it detects HD hardware. The hard drive would be optional/not a requirement the same way Microsoft does it. And I don't see anyone bitching about "Kinect required" or "Move required" games. So whats your point?