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Pachter: Mobile games are a fad and EA is wrong photo

Industry analyst Michael Pachter delights once more in the billionth story to come from Wedbush Morgan's recent state-of-the-industry report. While most people believe that mobile games are the future and that we'll see huge growth in the platform, Pachter and pals completely disagree, quite blatantly stating that "Mobile games are a fad."

Pachter focuses on the iPhone, stating that while the Apple products have seen 1 billion application downloads, "it is not evident that more than 20% of these downloads are games." The analyst believes that the iTunes App Store has made "under $400 million in game downloads." He does think that the market will see a 25% growth over the next few years, but that competition in the sector will eventually leads to its collapse.

The report states that EA's faith in mobile gaming is "misplaced," and that its focus on the system will be "barely profitable." Due to the predicted failure of the mobile game industry, our boy Mikey states that products like the PSPgo and DSi will maintain their niche in the market, "withoutn significant cannibalization" from mobile phones. 

He must seem to know something that tons of game publishers don't.


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31 comments | showing # 1 to 31

TheStripe's Avatar
TheStripe at 07/01/2009 11:05
I wish someone would paye to spout ridiculous bullshit.
TheStripe's Avatar
TheStripe at 07/01/2009 11:05
*pay me to

Ducking iPhone
TheStripe's Avatar
TheStripe at 07/01/2009 11:06
Pay me too, rather
Chronic Logic's Avatar
Chronic Logic at 07/01/2009 11:09
Mobile games are popular only because of the iphone's screen size and touch screen capability. What we need is the N-Gage 2!
foolishwolf's Avatar
foolishwolf at 07/01/2009 11:12
Enough with the Pachter posts. Seriously, does his opinion matter?
Timdabrat's Avatar
Timdabrat at 07/01/2009 11:13
I personally like mobile games on my iphone. It means when I go to work I can dick around with a simple game during my breaks, or let me play some whilst working discreetly. And the iphone smaller and lighter than my DS, and I bring it with me everywhere anyways.
BlackDove's Avatar
BlackDove at 07/01/2009 11:13
I think his right. Nobody gives two shits about mobile phone gaming.

The only reason it's off on the iPhone is because everyone who doesn't know about technology (vast majority) have one.

If 20 million people bought the PS3 as a BluRay player, games would still be popular on it if they weren't the focal point.

Assuming the iPhone tomorrow stops supporting games, mobile phone gaming would go back to N-GAGE status.

His point however, I do not understand.

It's here, it's queer, get used to it. It's not going away, it's only going to grow, therefore it will always, from this moment on, be a large market.

So if a fad sticks, like the Wii, then it's really NOT a fad, right?
linuxguy's Avatar
linuxguy at 07/01/2009 11:14
@TheStripe: just let it go :p
I don't think mobile games will collapse but I do think they'll hit a plateau where the prices will stabilise(around $5 ish) with production costs still lower than developing for traditional handheld consoles, and with not-that-bad quality standards.
unless everyone decides to spew shovelware then in that case they're doomed.
laika one's Avatar
laika one at 07/01/2009 11:17
@the stripe you had it right the second time... I dunno, i'm not really down with mobile gaming, can't see it replacing my ds... But then, i don't have an iphone so maybe i'm missing something.
laika one's Avatar
laika one at 07/01/2009 11:18
@the stripe you had it right the second time... I dunno, i'm not really down with mobile gaming, can't see it replacing my ds... But then, i don't have an iphone so maybe i'm missing something.
GoldenGamerXero's Avatar
GoldenGamerXero at 07/01/2009 11:20
I'm getting all the mobile games I can find in hopes that it will help SHUT HIM THE HELL UP!
Qraze's Avatar
Qraze at 07/01/2009 11:23
this guy has been right 30% of the time but he just needs to shut up.
Tubatic's Avatar
Tubatic at 07/01/2009 11:23
oh.

::goes back to his mobile game development related job...::
wadawoodo's Avatar
wadawoodo at 07/01/2009 11:28
Please don't give the fool any more publicity.
aaronf's Avatar
aaronf at 07/01/2009 12:03
"stating that while the Apple products have seen 1 billion application downloads, "it is not evident that more than 20% of these downloads are games." The analyst believes that the iTunes App Store has made "under $400 million in game downloads."

And he bases this on what? Since Apple hasn't released any numbers about this, Pachter seems to be pulling data out of his arse.
Timmeh's Avatar
Timmeh at 07/01/2009 12:20
If focus remains on developing for the iPhone, and Apple continue releasing new handsets more than once every 12 months to ever increasingly wallet raping prices I can see things petering out somewhat.
BluDesign's Avatar
BluDesign at 07/01/2009 12:37
I can see where pachter makes some sense. A lack of market dominance by a single mobile device, high recurring monthly costs, and lack of consumer dedication to a single mobile platform are more prominent issues that should be bothering game devs. The old standard of java game development along with Apple and android have given developers the best opportunities to create content. But the problem is that consumers as a whole are looking to mobile devices to get bigger and faster constantly which inhibits quality development cycles for game companies.

I think he's pretty spot on fir once though a layman could deduce what he's saying. When your largest two selling games on the iPhone are a 2 year old puzzle game and a well made knock off of a PSP game it should be telling that innovation will take a long time.
Doomsday Forte's Avatar
Doomsday Forte at 07/01/2009 12:39
I really don't see the iPhone as a gaming platform ala the DS or PSP, but there are also a staggering number of titles available. I saw that over 300 apps (not all games) are put on the App Store daily, and that's more than most systems get in a year. But on the flipside...shovelware. And lots of it. Oh yes, there are good programs out there, I'll admit, but the fact that the entire Role Playing category (first 25 apps, anyway) are nothing but related to the iMafia kind of browser-based "MMO" is laughable.

Apple does have one advantage. Games can be priced anywhere between free to $20 as far as I know, which outside of the cost of the hardware, is a big jump on the competitors. But they're still cell phone games. Blah blah blah.
absolofdoom's Avatar
absolofdoom at 07/01/2009 12:47
The iPhone has created ANOTHER market, but it's not gonna really affect the existing gaming market. Trust me, gamers aren't gonna scrap their psp or ds for an iPhone.
Cowboy TTop's Avatar
Cowboy TTop at 07/01/2009 12:50
Analysts are like banshees. They wail a lot, but majority of the time are wrong. Look how many of them said PSP would bury DS, and PS3 would bury 360. Always take what they say with a pinch of salt.

I do agree with Black, that if the iPhone wasn't making a firm mobile presence, mobile gaming would indeed crawl back into its previous poor shell. The reason that won't happen is due to games/aps being DLC, and there no being three different iPhones on the market, plus iPod Touch. With these out there, Apple isn't going to fold up and leave the gaming space anytime soon.

For the likes of large devs/pubs like EA, I see no point in them entering iPhone games, because they are looking for huge sales, like those on home consoles, which will never happen.

The real benefit of iPhone/touch games is in favour of the small developer, where a one/two man team can create cracking games/aps, have them sold via iTunes and make a name for themselves, that might change their entire life, and make some good money too.

What Apple must look into though, is better organisation of games from aps, and new from old. I hope they sort this out soon, because then good games won't get buried in amongst junk aps etc.

But yes, I think mobile games have finally arrived, thanks to Apple.
foolishwolf's Avatar
foolishwolf at 07/01/2009 12:52
LMAO @ Tubatic
gitrooman's Avatar
gitrooman at 07/01/2009 13:05
Download a game called Underworld for the iphone. Best game i played on any system all year and only 3 bucks.
gitrooman's Avatar
gitrooman at 07/01/2009 13:09
Correction: Underworlds*
DonPixel's Avatar
DonPixel at 07/01/2009 13:26
If you don`t agree with him at least make an argument you just look like some frustrated loser on a forum, you might hate patcher but he makes a living of this, he sure didn`t get to Wedbush and morgan by being a loser in a website.

People hate to bash him but most of his "incorrect" predictions are taking out of context, he make his analisys mostly from a economic/bussines point of view.. most of us are gammers it`s a diferent perspective.
DinnertimeNinja's Avatar
DinnertimeNinja at 07/01/2009 13:31
Only 400 million?!

I found that in my COUCH the other day.

Oh iPhone, you are HILARIOUS.
greks224's Avatar
greks224 at 07/01/2009 14:23
I really don't get why Pachter thinks this. Tons of mobile phones would play MP3's before the iPhone, but the iPhone really integrated the two devices together well. Also, I say that I still haven't seen a better browser than Apple's mobile Safari. The iPhone deserves the success it gets, and it's nice to know that the iPhone can play games pretty nicely as well.

Now, will gaming machines be integrated into mobile phones eventually? That's a different story. "Hardcore" gamers expect better technology to support their games, and a phone company can't reasonably create a phone with equivalent power of a Sony device. If the iPhone were something that said: "and it plays games better than your PSP," gamers would jump on it, but I would assume that the price would be higher than it needs to be. The average cell phone user needs a music/video player, not a game player. However, it's nice for the average phone buyer to know that it can play games reasonably well. Think of all "casual" gaming people that bought the DS because they just want to play Sudoku on it. A mobile phone CAN overtake that market.
StMcDuck's Avatar
StMcDuck at 07/01/2009 15:46
I don't know. I just scored over 550,000 in one level of iphone Peggle.
That good feeling in my pants can't be wrong.
TheStripe's Avatar
TheStripe at 07/01/2009 17:12
iPhone doom is pretty addicting as well. A billion app downloads. There's my argument.
Corak's Avatar
Corak at 07/01/2009 19:07
What I found really great about iPhone gaming was the dev kit for it. From what I remember it costs $1000, it can only be used on a mac, bummer but not all that surprising, you pay I think $100 to get the app approved then 70% of the money you sell it for goes to you. This is within the reach of a lot of people not just big game companies. And if you can create a quality product you can make a lot of money.
bluki's Avatar
bluki at 07/01/2009 20:16
Mobile games at this moment still can't compete in terms of depth with other portable games that's created specifically for handheld game system, with the exception of SIM CITY for iphone, i have yet seen any game that provide depth gameplay in iphone.
Hamster Alliance's Avatar
Hamster Alliance at 07/03/2009 18:43
@ALL OF YOU: HEATHENS! THE PACHTER KNOWS ALL! HE IS THE ORACLE! HIS PREDICTIONS ARE DIVINE! THE PROPHECIES OF PACHTER WILL BE TRUE! YOU WILL ALL SEE AND YOU WILL ALL BURN FOR DOUBTING HIM! BUUUUURRRRRNN!!!
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