Now that we're about two months away, what better way to spend our time until then come up with even more predictions to add upon the pile of rotting estimate trash already festering in the corner of some seedy alley. Next Generation has thrown their controller in the game and has decided to do a little PlayStation 3 prognostication.
Among the most ambitious of their forecasting is what titles will be the most popular and by how many units. Take a gander at the list and predictions, and tell us where Next Gen is right and where they are way off.
OK, so to set up their little test, they've established these rules, so pay attention before flying off the handle on correctness:
• PS3 will sell out in its first six months.
• The PS3 will have a lower initial attach rate compared to the 360 due to its higher retail price and Blu-Ray functionality, which will probably split consumer dollars at retail as users try the full functionality of the machine.
• Big-name games will sell just as well on PS3 as they did on 360.
• The PS3’s launch list has few exclusives.
So, now that we all got that straight, lets move on to the actual numbers and see what games will be the hottest sellers. We will, of course, start with the top dogs and move down to the meaningless drones (the numbers next to the game name represent the total units sold):
• Resistance: Fall of Man: 800,000
• Call of Duty 3: 650,000
• Assassin’s Creed: 600,000
• Need for Speed Carbon: 500,000
• Warhawk: 500,000
• Madden NFL 2K7: 450,000
• John Woo Presents Stranglehold: 450,000
• Tom Clancy’s Rainbow Six: Vegas: 400,000
• Unreal Tournament 2007: 400,000
• Medal of Honor: Airborne: 400,000
• Brothers in Arms: Hell’s Highway: 350,000
• Heavenly Sword: 350,000
• Untold Legends: Dark Kingdom: 250,000
• Tom Clancy’s Splinter Cell: Double Agent: 200,000
• Sonic the Hedgehog: 200,000
• Marvel: Ultimate Alliance: 100,000
• NBA 2K7: 100,000
• NBA Live 07: 100,000
• Tony Hawk’s Project 8: 90,000
• Genji: Days of the Blade: 80,000
So, I'll start off the nitpicking and tell you where I see holes in Next Gen's top 20 theory. First, there's no way in God's green earth that Need for Speed will outsell any Madden game. That's just not going to happen. Carbon could have a two-year head start and still not outsell this killer. From there, I'd swap out a few things in the middle, but all in all, not a bad guess.
It's toward the bottom that the real issues begin. How in the world are Sonic and a mediocre Untold Legends going to outsell a much-improved Tony Hawk and two NBA games? I've played these games, and considering their current-gen appeal, it's hard to believe a ho-hum hack-and-slash and a tired Sega series are going to outsell such guaranteed movers such as Tony Hawk and a pro sports series.
Enough about me, where do you all stand on this?
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