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More analyst doom and gloom for the PlayStation 3 photo

If the gaming world were ruled by analysts, we wouldn't have anything to spend our free time on. It seems all they want to do is spoil our fun and get all stuffy with the numbers. Such is the case with the latest faceless analyst group to claim that the PlayStation 3 ain't doin' so well and may not do so well in the coming year. Predictions man, predictions:

According to a new report by Japanese analyst group Nomura Securities, Sony will only reach 75 percent of its fiscal year sales target for PlayStation 3 consoles after a lower-than-expected U.S. holiday sales season for the next-gen console.

Sony's estimated PlayStation 3 sales up to the end of March 2007 were cut from 6 million to 4.5 million by the group, with what it called "poor sales" in North America through December as the leading factor cited for the drop.

Beyond this year, the group lowered its sales for the next fiscal year (ending March 2008) from 16 million to 10 million, and from 18 million to 11 million the year following (ending March 2009), likely reflecting a lack of confidence by Nomura in the product as a whole, rather than any shorter-term supply issues.

Here's my analysis to this analysis: No.


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32 comments | showing # 1 to 32

Snaileb 's Avatar - Comment posted on 01/15/2007 14:30
Snaileb
Is that your professional opinion or just a cry for help?
phinehas's Avatar - Comment posted on 01/15/2007 14:39
phinehas
Hey, man, crazier things have happened.
Fenris's Avatar - Comment posted on 01/15/2007 14:40
Fenris
I don't see why you are disagreeing with the revised sales numbers. They are probably not that far off from reality.

Given the price point being a little high for the casual household, which in reality is where the PS2's excellent sales numbers came from, I think they might finally be on to the correct path. The numbers listed before I believe the early predictions in sales and production capacity were heavily inflated to keep stockholders steady in the rough waters.

Sony will still do OK this round, I just doubt they will have the powerhouse appeal that the PS2 had.
CaffeinePowered's Avatar - Comment posted on 01/15/2007 14:40
CaffeinePowered
Whether or not we listen to them or believe them, people who trade stock do, and this is definitely not good for their shareholders.
Human's Avatar - Comment posted on 01/15/2007 14:50
Human
They're just doing their jobs, Summa. They're analysts...they analyze things.

But then, you're just doing your job too. You're a gaming "journalist"...and you're just posting about gaming, right? No, you're bitching about (fully qualified) analysts releasing projected data that hurts your feelings.

As for the "faceless" comment...maybe you should look up Nomura Securities.
Snaileb 's Avatar - Comment posted on 01/15/2007 14:55
Snaileb
Human are you an analyst? Is your mom an analysts? Did Summa hurt your feelings because he was actually talkin bout
your momma? (I make me laugh.)
Snaileb 's Avatar - Comment posted on 01/15/2007 14:56
Snaileb
WTF is that pic from? Jason?
Human's Avatar - Comment posted on 01/15/2007 14:57
Human
What, Snaileb?

Summa likes to complain about qualified people making educated guesses that directly contradict his opinion that "da PS3 r da roXXorZ," and I like to reply and give him a hard time about it.
Zaron's Avatar - Comment posted on 01/15/2007 14:59
Zaron
Guys, guys, Summa firmly believes that the PS3 is a gift from God, and that it will usher in a new age of gaming utopia, leaving all competition in the dust. Any statements contrary to this belief are simply lies in his eyes.

If you want to see the kind of zeal I'm talking about, take a trip to Tulsa, OK and tell a minister that we evolved from monkeys.
World Famous's Avatar - Comment posted on 01/15/2007 15:03
World Famous
I like to snake dance as well.
Serpentish's Avatar - Comment posted on 01/15/2007 15:05
Serpentish
I predict a massive boom of ps3 sales right around march. My prediction's based on an analysis of this loogie I just hocked.
bassbeast's Avatar - Comment posted on 01/15/2007 15:10
bassbeast
See, the thing is, and this may be the part that's hard to understand, the PS3 isn't selling.

Assume two things to be true:

1) Sony shipped 1 million consoles to retailers by calendar year end 2006.

2) NPD isn't wrong about the PS3 selling 687,300 in November and December in the U.S.

This means... let's see... carry the one... 312,700 unsold PS3s sitting on shelves. That would explain the ease of acquiring one, not to mention why it looks pretty bleak right now. That's 69% sell-through. On a brand new console. Whose shipped estimates were slashed by 75%. That's incredibly bad.'

While I agree that analysts are never to be trusted, even you can't ignore the reality of the flop the PS3 has become thus far.
bassbeast's Avatar - Comment posted on 01/15/2007 15:14
bassbeast
And, obviously, Gabe Newell is a Nintendo fanboy, right:

http://www.mcvuk.com/Valve-boss-blows-a-gasket-over-PS3
ArrestedDeveloper's Avatar - Comment posted on 01/15/2007 15:16
ArrestedDeveloper
I wouldn't deem it a flop just yet, just a slower than expected start. But the article isn't bashing the ps3, it just sounds like it is stating the obvious.
Chris Taran's Avatar - Comment posted on 01/15/2007 15:37
Chris Taran
EVERYONE'S WRONG!
Snaileb 's Avatar - Comment posted on 01/15/2007 15:43
Snaileb
Chris Taran couldn't be more right.
Civnerd's Avatar - Comment posted on 01/15/2007 15:49
Civnerd
The only two titles I see coming out that has a snail's chance of saving the PS3 are MGS4 and FFXIII, which aren't coming out any time soon. *prediction* more WAAAAAAAHs for a while.
Burnt Meatloaf's Avatar - Comment posted on 01/15/2007 15:52
Burnt Meatloaf
This week, practically every system got a new game... except PS3.
Ignignokt01's Avatar - Comment posted on 01/15/2007 15:54
Ignignokt01
"EVERYONE'S WRONG!"

How do i paradox?
Rainbowblack's Avatar - Comment posted on 01/15/2007 15:58
Rainbowblack
hey guys guess what

PS3 sales numbers down? the whole internet laughs and says Sony is doomed

Ps3 sales numbers are down and an analysts laughs and says Sony is doomed

We then pounce on the analyst and criticize his claim calling him a douchebag who has no clue WTF he's talking about

It makes me feel like shit inside for realizing what a fucking total loser I am....that goes for you too. every single one of you lol.
Snaileb 's Avatar - Comment posted on 01/15/2007 16:01
Snaileb
CIVNERD!! I find the phrase or term "has a snail's chance " to be racist!! STOP BEING RACIST!! Pig.
KyleGamgee's Avatar - Comment posted on 01/15/2007 16:06
KyleGamgee
1) The PS3 will do just fine in the long run. People have a lot of money, and plenty of it will go to Sony.

2) I trust an expert analyst as much as I trust an expert witness in an insanity-plea murder trial: totally and completely as long as he's a witness for my side and not the other side. ('cause then he's a paid off hack)

3) My opinion doesn't matter. I own an Xbox. (not a 360, just an Xbox) My opinion will matter when I buy an Xbox 360. (by then the Xbox1080 will be out and the 360 price finally dropped. Experts will make fun of the Xbox1080 'cause the PS4 runs 2160p high def blue-green-ray disks.)
Serpentish's Avatar - Comment posted on 01/15/2007 16:13
Serpentish
Teal disks ftw.
spikejnz's Avatar - Comment posted on 01/15/2007 16:29
spikejnz
I'm sorry, the PS3 was a huge flop of an opening! They could have done a lot better if they would have just sat on it for awhile fine-tuned it. but hey, flop it is!
Jordan Devore's Avatar - Comment posted on 01/15/2007 16:43
Jordan Devore
I think the pic is from Cujo?
Snaileb 's Avatar - Comment posted on 01/15/2007 16:54
Snaileb
Kudos Grim!
Cruds's Avatar - Comment posted on 01/15/2007 17:24
Cruds
Here's my analysis to this analysis: No.
Your analysis aren't always spot on either.
*cough, cough*Nintendo*Cough*Apple*Cough*

I don't care, knowing that I only going to buy two of the three consoles this generation. The Wii is scheduled this year and a year after that - or maybe two - the second one. By than it will be much clearer what's the console to own. If it ps3 will be anything like the ps2 I guess I'll go Sony again, simply for a more diversity library...I'm still not sure or I want to pay for that Blue-ray I didn't ask for tho. oh and the missing rumble is somewhat troublesome. Maybe I'll be better off hoping more different types of games for the Xbox...*sigh* what a dilemma.
ranzchic's Avatar - Comment posted on 01/15/2007 19:23
ranzchic
NDP numbers for both the Wii and the PS3 are suspect. It's just too low, especially for the Wii. It's harder to defend the PS3 numbers because they are easier to come buy while the Wii is practically non-existant, however.
Coolio McAwesome's Avatar - Comment posted on 01/15/2007 19:26
Coolio McAwesome
It should be noted that this "faceless analyst group" is actually the oldest brokerage firm in Japan and, rest assured, they do know what they are talking about. Now, granted, predictions should always be taken with a grain of salt, but this report is very much based in reality and, in all probability, is right on the money. Summa can throw all the love in the world in Sony's direction and spend all the energy he has on fostering his bizarre hatred of all things Nintendo but, at the end of the day, these forecasts are still completely reasonable.
some_dude's Avatar - Comment posted on 01/15/2007 21:00
some_dude
I've said it before, I'm gonna say it again, and will probably say it yet again tomorrow. Sony's main problem is PRICE. As much as the fanboys wanna claim this as a non-issue, it's what I here from people time and again. Lack of good games and framerate issues don't help any, but the $500-600 price tag is the PS3's main problem.
ranzchic's Avatar - Comment posted on 01/15/2007 22:22
ranzchic
I agree. The loyal rabid fanbase and "hardcore" gamer will swallow the $600 price once the big hitters come out but it won't change the fact that that segment of the population is vastly outnumbered by those who casually play video games. And I find it hard to believe that casual gamers would pay at least $500 for a PS3 just to play FF or MGS. The 360 is already pushing it at $400.

The PS3 has all the bells and whistle and is an impressive system. I just don't see it having a runaway success like its predecessor, the PS2.
Ballistic90's Avatar - Comment posted on 01/16/2007 11:24
Ballistic90
Analysts have said that the PS3 was going to be the clear winner and that the Wii wasn't going to sell more than 15 million over it's lifetime. Analysts are either wrong or change their predictions daily.
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