games  anime  |  toys
Destructoid is gaming news, community, videos, and sometimes love. Take the tour or jump in with Facebook:

 


Meatspin Calculator Gymnastics: March 2009 photo

Every time an analyst opens his mouth, the Internet swells with comments like “What an idiot” or “I could do that job.” I have a lot of respect for analysts despite their seemingly dartboard approach to predictions. These are people with teams of researchers at their disposal, crunching away at numbers and reporting on the financial stability of game companies. They aren’t all gamers themselves.

I don’t think I have what it takes to write reports to stock holders, but I’ve always wondered if I could make decent predictions. So, I asked Destructoid if I could take a stab at being the "site analyst" and they accepted. Each month, I’ll be providing a summary of the previous month and giving my own predictions for the following month. I’m also going to take a stab at the hardware NPD numbers each month.

This is your chance to be an analyst, too. I invite all of you to post your own predictions in the comments. If you really think you can do a better job than some of the analysts out there, prove that you are a meatspinning calculator gymnast instead of a Monday morning quarterback.
 
Killzone 2
 
February 2009:

February 2009 was a great month for gaming in general, especially considering the state of the economy (unemployment rose to 8.1% in the U.S. in February). Nearly 20 million software sales in the U.S. and 2.33 million hardware sales took place in February.

From a hardware perspective, Nintendo cleaned up with 1.34 million units in sales between the Wii and DS. Microsoft realized its biggest non-holiday/non-Halo month since launch. Sony offloaded 606k in sales between the PS3, PSP and PS2.
  • Wii – The Wii sold 753k in February, up from 679k in January. GameStop recently commented that Wii supply has finally met demand. It’ll be interesting to keep an eye on Wii sales throughout the year and watch for the unavoidable decline (which may or may not come this year). The Wii shows no signs of slowing down, so until those hints can be seen, expect to see similar sales figures every month.
  • DS – The DS sold 588k in February, up from 510k in January. Most interesting to note is that sales are not slowing down despite no major releases and a looming DSi due this April.
  • Xbox 360 – Microsoft is obviously enjoying the 360’s price point with 391k in sales. Even with no exclusives launching that month, it was able to beat the PS3 (its main competitor) by 115k units. This is a testament more to the price point of the 360 than it is to the PS3, considering the 360 hit its highest non-holiday/non-Halo month since launch. Expect the 360 to continue to sell well until after a PS3 price drop.
  • PS3 – The PS3 sold considerably well at 276k units, considering its price point. I’m sure Sony would have wanted higher sales due to the late month release of Killzone 2, but there is still hope. Keep an eye on March to see if Killzone 2 helped clear shelves at retailers, but those numbers may be overshadowed by sales of Resident Evil 5 which was released in March. Despite my seemingly positive outlook of the PS3 this month, it’s obvious that the PS3 needs a price cut. Currently, Sony seems to be relying on exclusives and hype to sell units, but only so much water can be squeezed from this sponge. Sony has recently stated they have plans for the PS3 price drop, and I believe they do. They are most likely waiting for a new financial quarter, a strategic date (like E3), or manufacturing costs to go down. As a company, Sony is hurting tremendously. With Stringer taking over as company president, it’s hard to say what the new direction for the Playstation brand will be, but Sony has reassured us that nothing will change. Then again, Sony says a lot of things. I'll be keeping my eyes on this one.
  • PSP – Sales of the PSP rose slightly over January with 210k sold.
  • PS2 – The PS2 sold 131k units. Considering that the PS2 sold 351.8k units last February, it’s easy to see why Sony dropped the price of the PS2 down to $99 on April 1st 2009. The price drop announcement came at the end of March so that shouldn’t affect PS2 sales in the March NPDs.
In terms of software:
  • Wii - The Wii claimed 4 of the top 10 spots, including the top spot. Six of the top 20 in sales came from the Wii. It’s interesting to note that all four of the Wii’s top 10 games included additional hardware.
  • PS3 – The PS3 only had two games in the top 10, but those combined for a very respectable 726k in sales. Killzone 2 came in at #5 with 323k in sales. I suspect it would have sold more had it been on the market for more than 2 days in February. Street Fighter IV sold 403k, slightly under the 360’s 446k, which is very respectable considering the install base of the 360 and PS3; 15 million vs. 7 million respectfully. Despite good performance from these two games, the PS3 was only able to get three games in the top 20. As Nintendo and Microsoft pull ahead in install base, it’s going to be increasingly more difficult for Sony to take up slots in the monthly software sales. Again, I stress the importance of a PS3 price drop.
  • Xbox 360 – Like the PS3, the 360 was only able to get two games in the top 10. The difference between the PS3 and 360, though, is that the 360 was able to pull 9 games from the top 20. Month after month, we see the same games appear on the NPD list from Nintendo. Not Microsoft. It’s clear that the 360 really is a 3rd party dream. Until the PS3 starts truly taking off, don’t expect this to change.
  • DS – Again we see Mario Kart, Super Mario DS and New Super Mario Bros. show up in the entire top 20 for the DS. Did you really expect anything less?
  • PSP and PS2 – Neither had a game hit the top 20.

My predictions:

In February, I made two predictions. I was right on both.
  • I predicted that Killzone 2 would show up as number 5. It did.
  • I predicted the 360 would sell 100k or more than the PS3. It did.

Halo Wars

March 2009:

On the surface, the March 2009 NPDs will look fantastic since they will be based on 5 weeks of data instead of 4. The biggest new software players in March will be Resident Evil 5, Halo Wars, Pokémon Platinum, and GTA Chinatown Wars. Wii Fit, Wii Play and Mario Kart will also show their face. Killzone 2 may show up in the top 10, but it will be towards the lower end of the top 10 if it does. Expect 360 sales to be up with its favorable price point and new Resident Evil 5 SKU.
 
I don’t expect Halo Wars to make much of an impact in hardware sales, but expect great software sales since MS has announced that Halo Wars has already broken the 1 million mark. The PS3 should show numbers similar to last months (based on a weekly breakdown) due to the continuation of Killzone 2 and the new Resident Evil 5. The DS should see good numbers with GTA Chinatown Wars and Pokémon Platinum, but people may be holding off for the DSi in April.

Based on historical figures and educated guesses, here are my predictions. I admit I’m new to this (and have never tried to predict sales in such great detail), so let’s see how I do:

Wii: 825k

DS: 725k

360: 450k

PS3: 325k

PSP: 210k

PS2: 125k

LAUNCH GALLERY (2 IMAGES)
Photo Photo
 

Continue: More Analysts stories





prev next

8 comments | showing # 1 to 8

Dexter345's Avatar
Dexter345 at 04/14/2009 17:08
I bet I could do that job, if I were getting paid what they are. As somebody who is just saying random things on the Internet, no, I don't think I could make any sort of accurate predictions. I will keep up with how well you do this, though.
Chronic Logic's Avatar
Chronic Logic at 04/14/2009 17:11
Try the SimExchange, it's a great website for those who deal in stocks. I actually made a couple hundred dollars in stocks during GTA EA takeover bid and also in some other games as well.
http://www.thesimexchange.com/frontpage.php
John Johnson's Avatar
John Johnson at 04/14/2009 17:17
Rant commencing, Joe, please don't take it personally, it's more directed about people who get so worked up and convinced analysts are "wrong":

It is worthwhile to note that while fanboying it up and trying to predict who will outdo what is certainly fun, it really has little to do with what an analyst does. That's what bugs me about gamers getting up in arms about analyst predictions: they take it personally. Analysts don't give a crap about which is the superior system.

The thing about video game websites reporting on analyst reports is that they always cherry pick quotes and never direct link to the report. Have you ever seen an analyst report? They care about profitability, not sales. You could price the PS3 at a dollar and sell a million consoles a month, but then Sony would lose any profitability. Or maybe they wouldn't; maybe they would sell enough software and peripherals to make up for the loss. This is what the analysts job is: to predict the performance of the companies in their specific sector. The predictions shouldn't be taken literally, they're best-guess scenarios that analysts use as guideposts to try to predict overall company performance. So please, people, take analyst's numbers with a grain of salt, in most cases they aren't nearly as significant as the gaming community makes them out to be.

Come on people, we're gamers, we're a smart crew, could we please stop interpreting analyst reports in such juvenile and uninformed ways? (Answer: no.)
Joe Burling's Avatar
Joe Burling at 04/14/2009 17:39
You are absolutely right, John Johnson. I have seen analyst reports and you hit the nail on the head. People get so worked up about analysts like Michael Pachter and they don't realize what those analysts are trying to accomplish.

My goal is simply to report on the numbers from a gamers point of view, while trying to put any biases I have aside. I want to have some fun with this. I think you see what I'm trying to get at. :)
Los255's Avatar
Los255 at 04/14/2009 18:01
Gaming sales can only go much higher from here, ESPECIALLY since the rise in unemployment.

XD
Professor Pew's Avatar
Professor Pew at 04/14/2009 18:02
It's been a pretty slow month. Maybe the lack of games would turn people's heads more towards to the economy and some global downturn in terms of conflicts (Pakistan, Gulf of Aden, Thailand) which won't help them feel more at ease. Perhaps a small rise in RPG and casual sales to help people with escapist tendencies.

Possibly a small spike in handheld sales because of a loss of cars and more time spent in public transport... Oh wait, this is for the US right? :D

Also a probable resurgence in PS2 sales based on the value argument. PS3 likely to hurt the most because of the entry price point, mitigated by some last bits of momentum from the Killzone 2 wave. 360 to stay on the same course, probably suffering the same % of sales losses as the PS3 and Wii do.

I'm so anxious for the Wii MotionPlus crap. It's gonna sell so many Wii's and Wii Sports Resort copies just because everyone is going to show their friends and neighbors how much better "Wii Sports 2" is. Fuck it, I should just buy Nintendo stock instead. If I had any money!

On that topic, sharp increase in blank media sales predicted for 2009 :P
Rabite's Avatar
Rabite at 04/14/2009 19:42
So I guess I was the only one who saw Meatspin and immediately had the website come to mind. Probably for the best, though I was curious as to why you'd want to be that kind of an Meatspin calculator.
eco's Avatar
eco at 10/19/2009 13:29
Украина Экологический паспорт Днепропетровск
prev next

Comment with Facebook





Click connect and comment instantly!

Comment with Dtoid





New? SIGN UP - it takes 5 seconds

Comments policy

Destructoid is an open discussion community. You don't need to "audition" to post a comment - just speak your mind. We respect differing opinions on the site, so have at it. Be smart, funny, insightful, clueless, or cute -- but back it up with substance. Keep your cool, keep it fun. We only ask that you act respectfully and above all: don't be a troll and ruin it for everyone else. Don't bring down gamers or we'll, you know, gently shoot you in the face and stuff you into a flaming mailbox. Each comment is your opportuntity to make this community awesomer. Is that even a word?

Avoiding the banhammer only requires common sense: spamming, trolling, racism, NSFW stuff, and other forms of sucking will not be tolerated. If anyone is griefing please report abuse. Be good. Don't suck!

 
New on Destructoid.TV play all videos

Loading
Loading Destructoid Videos




    Win this!
    Reminder: We're giving away six copies of Magnacarta 2!



    Dtoid Twitter    Got news?   tips@destructoid.com

    Reviews & Previews
    Mahjongg Artifacts 2 review
    Dragon Age: Origins review
    Lost Winds: The Winter of the Melodias review
    Osmos review
    Space Invaders Extreme 2 review
    Half-Minute Hero review
    JU-ON: The Grudge review
    Kenka Bancho: Badass Rumble review
    Thexder Neo review
    Domino Rally review
    more reviews
    PS3's 256-player MAG
    Rooms The Main Building
    Skate 3
    Hudson's bringing back the Bonk
    James Cameron's Avatar
    Bomberman Battlefest
    Calling
    Bad Company 2's multiplayer
    Partying like it's 1959 in BioShock 2's multiplayer
    BioShock 2 through the eyes of Big Daddy
    more previews


    - The Dtoid Army is 49541 strong -

    Showing Cblogs with 3+ faps   show all

    Call for entries: do the wrong thing

    New to Dtoid? Read the survival guide




     Originals
    Jim Sterling: Ten 'classic' games that did not age well





















    More Destructoid Originals




     Popular now more
























    Destructoid's editorial lovefest is:
    Nick Chester
    Editor-in-Chief
    Jim Sterling
    Reviews Editor
    Dale North
    News Editor
    Hamza Aziz
    Community Manager
    Anthony Burch
    Features Editor
    Rey Gutierrez
    Video editor & director
    Niero
    Founder, publisher
    Letters to the editors
    tips@destructoid.com
    Associate Editors
    Ashley Davis Jonathan Holmes
    Brad Nicholson Jonathan Ross
    Brad Rice Jordan Devore
    Chad Concelmo Matthew Razak
    Colette Bennett Tom Fronczak
    Conrad Zimmerman Topher Cantler
    Dyson Samit Sarkar
    Contributors
    Adam Dork
    Ben Perlee
    Daniel Lingen
    Joseph Leray
    Joe Burling
    Mikey
    Will Maddock
    Stella Wong





     

     
      get involved

    register or login
    post a blog
    post a forum
    enter a contest
    contribute a news tip
    suggest a feature
    be a guest editor
    support

    new member's guide
    login assistance
    tech support
    report abuse
    email our editors
    read our dev blog
    nuclear crisis?
    keep in touch

    RSS feed
    Twitter
    Facebook
    Myspace
    Flickr
    Game nights
    Meetup+play online
    seriously

    about Destructoid
    advertising
    terms of use
    privacy policy
    jobs at MM
    buy our crap
    our network

    Tomopop
    Japanator
    Despingation?




    Destructoid is an independently-run publication forged by our love of video games and the gaming community's need of accountable enthusiast press
    living the dream since March 16, 2006