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Iwata: Digital distribution will be prevalent in 20 years photo

During his comments following the release of Nintendo's recent financials, company President Satoru Iwata laid out the connectivity rates for the Wii and DS in Japan. According to Nintendo's numbers 30 percent of Wii owners are currently connecting their Wii to the internet and only 20 percent of DS owners are doing it. The numbers spike whenever a big online game is released for either system or whenever new online functions are released, but Iwata says that the company must take more aggressive action or those numbers will drop.

Despite Iwata's claim that Nintendo is truly interested in its system's online functionality (and their work to sponsor wireless hot spots in places like McDonald's) Iwata does not think that digital distribution of games will be playing a big role in the gaming market for quite some time. He reinforced his opinion that while he does see digital distribution as a means to provide additional internet-driven software features he does not see it as a dominant delivery method for games any time soon.

""In 20 years or so, I might say it will have probably changed," Iwata said while discussing the possible shift to digital distribution. "But in 5 years or so, I do not totally agree. ...Habits of life do not change [so] radically and quickly."

He is, of course, right. Even I, a technologically advanced person of a young age, am having trouble letting go of physical retail. Imagine what a member of Nintendo's new "expanded audience" feels when they're offered a game without a box or disc.








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28 comments | showing # 1 to 28
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Alasdair Duncan's Avatar - Comment posted on 11/08/2009 01:05
Alasdair Duncan
With music, I'm still buying physical copies of CDs but with games I'm a convert to digital distribution. I pretty much buy everything on Steam if I can.
Qraze's Avatar - Comment posted on 11/08/2009 01:17
Qraze
i don't think it matters what any exec thinks about dd. what matters is what the market says. and it says we all ain't ready, some are, but most aren't.
Wedge's Avatar - Comment posted on 11/08/2009 01:30
Wedge
For it to become the main method of distribution? Yeah he's probably about right.
BoomingEchoes's Avatar - Comment posted on 11/08/2009 01:31
BoomingEchoes
Exactly like i said when another site ran this:

Dear Nintendo,

I have one thing to say to you:

No duuuuuhhhhhhhhh...

Thank you.
WarZombie's Avatar - Comment posted on 11/08/2009 01:35
WarZombie
As much as I hate to say it, the man is right. I love me some physical copies as much as the next person, but it'd be foolish to think DD won't take over as the norm in due time. Music is making the transition right now, and games won't be very far behind.
Sir Legendhead's Avatar - Comment posted on 11/08/2009 01:51
Sir Legendhead
As a 360 user, I prefer mine on disc. I like being able to trade games when I'm done with them, I don't like having to keep stuff on my hard drive, and I don't really trust Microsoft to keep up with my download history (or their own servers, for that matter).

Most of the DLCs I've bought would've been better as rentals anyway. The first Watchmen episode wasn't worth $20 and I wouldn't have played the second one if I hadn't been able to rent it on disc. Same with GTA IV. I've got the Episodes of Liberty City disc rented out now, but would've never paid $20 for The Ballad of Gay Tony (and have already traded in GTA IV anyway).

I wish they'd offer downloadable rentals for games on consoles. That would save hard drive space and money...for the consumer, anyway. I have no idea how profitable that might be for Microsoft or the devs.
KingSigy's Avatar - Comment posted on 11/08/2009 01:56
KingSigy
I honestly wouldn't mind digital distribution as the norm. I hate having to make room for all my shit and then losing discs or CD keys. 20 years, though, seems about right. I doubt this or the next generation will be able to effectively provide fast connections to quickly deliver content, even if GTA has 2 gb expansions.
Mohd Syafiq Bin Jabaruddin's Avatar - Comment posted on 11/08/2009 02:06
Mohd Syafiq Bin Jabaruddin
I like a physical copy myself, but DD has saved me a lot of time. When I have too much work to go to a mall, I can just buy and download stuff from my home/college.
swiftj's Avatar - Comment posted on 11/08/2009 02:59
swiftj
"Imagine what a member of Nintendo's new "expanded audience" feels when they're offered a game without a box or disc."

Today, they would be apprehensive - but if Nintendo really clings to the "Channel" interface, basically offering users the interface metaphor the'yve come to expect and be familiar with via other forms of media (TV, Radio, etc...) then I could see it becoming as ordinary as ordering a pay-per-view within 5 years.

Assuming, of course, that this new "expanded audience" has widespread access to broadband...which will obviously be a major determining factor as to the feasibility of DD as a primary means of distribution. If you're using the US as a benchmark for broadband penetration, well, in that case I can understand the 20 years part of it.
Nintendragon's Avatar - Comment posted on 11/08/2009 03:00
Nintendragon
If by 20 he means 2-4, sure...
ViewFinder's Avatar - Comment posted on 11/08/2009 03:01
ViewFinder
I know this will happen sometime in the future but I will welcome anything that will delay digital distribution as main method of a purchase. I'm not really intersted to own ones and zeros in space.
The Silent Protagonist's Avatar - Comment posted on 11/08/2009 03:06
The Silent Protagonist
Some things in physical media still have merit - like music on Vinyl. Some people just prefer the warm tone that comes from the needle picking up the music. Plus DJs need 'em. It goes so far that there are turntables with MP3 recorders on them.

Games, well, since I got my PSP-3000 and DSi, I just like having lots of games without having to switch out physical media all the time to play something else.
Indigo Dingo's Avatar - Comment posted on 11/08/2009 04:32
Indigo Dingo
Oh yes, cause Nintendos predictions on game format has always been so eerily accurate. *Cough* N64 *Cough* Gamecube

They're basing it on their own data for digital signup, so, yes, if online gaming were as bad as the Wii, we'd be decades away from Digital distribution. With other, working methods, much closer.

I maintain, OnLive will blow everything else out of the water as soon as it emerges.
StingingVelvet's Avatar - Comment posted on 11/08/2009 05:21
StingingVelvet
PC already shows this to be true. Steam and other digital stores come around and BOOM, barely any retail presence anymore and most people buy games online.

Make no mistake, PC sales are down, blah blah blah... they are still very healthy, industry types will tell you, they are just not selling much through normal retail chains.

Consoles will follow suit, probably as soon as next-gen... Gamestop will have to figure out how to do without those sales as well.
Indigo Dingo's Avatar - Comment posted on 11/08/2009 07:20
Indigo Dingo
Velvet: Or, like with the PsPGo, they'll refuse to stock it.
Markusdragon's Avatar - Comment posted on 11/08/2009 07:44
Markusdragon
Unless the console manufacturers start allowing third parties to sell their digital distribution stuff, this will be terrible for gamers. Without direct same-format competition or second hand games to drive down prices, and without warehouse space to think about, there's absolutely no reason for the manufacturers to lower the prices on games that aren't selling well. Instead of the market setting prices, the prices will stay mostly static, thus the only actually useful part of capitalism will be eradicated, leaving everything at RRP, or 'classics' RRP.
James Freeman's Avatar - Comment posted on 11/08/2009 08:39
James Freeman
On PC Digital Distribution is now massive
TheTruth's Avatar - Comment posted on 11/08/2009 08:42
TheTruth
20 years? I would have said more like five years. Think about how fast technology advances now and think how far they came with digital distribution. The 360 itself only LAUNCHED four years ago an has made digital as easy and casual as can be for purchases.
Even now they start offering bigger and bigger hard drives, since that's the biggest hurdle...having the space for all your stuff.
But a lot can forward in five years. And bigger hard drives should be a pretty minor hurdle over time.

20 years...that sounds about as wise a prediction from Nintendo as when they chose to not go CD with the N64.

I realize the kind of crowd going to internet sites is sure to be more digital buying hooked up than some Middle America housewife as of today...but five years from now?
Xzyliac's Avatar - Comment posted on 11/08/2009 09:20
Xzyliac
20 years? I would have said more like five years.

That's it. I'm gonna go cry in a corner now.
Monodi's Avatar - Comment posted on 11/08/2009 09:21
Monodi
The internet is not even that age on the open public yet, lets just wait.
matrixdude171's Avatar - Comment posted on 11/08/2009 09:26
matrixdude171
Suuuuuure, this is why his console doesn't have much of an online group at all.
Mace's Avatar - Comment posted on 11/08/2009 10:09
Mace
I hate buying physical copies of games. I have not bought a boxed PC game for years (Steam and GOG.com are pretty much the only places I buy PC games nowadays) and I always buy games digitally for my PS3 and PSP if I can.
I do not own a 360, but if I did I am sure I would buy the games that I could over the on-demand service.

The sooner all games are made downloadable and I do not need to have dozens -- if not hundreds -- of game boxes cluttering up my house, the better!

One thing that I do think needs to happen in order for digital distribution to really take over though, is price-matching and price-beating physical copies. Quite often it is cheaper to buy a disc than it is to download a game, which is ridiculous, because it is far cheaper to distribute a game via a download service than it is to do so using physical media.
bobyoko's Avatar - Comment posted on 11/08/2009 11:37
bobyoko
hey, big N, the reason why you see a spike and then a drop in your numbers is an easy cause and effect. when all us gamers find out that you're putting out an online game, we can't help but be excited. online gaming is inherently fun, you see. we play said online game, and it sucks. ALL of your online titles are less than adequate. so, we play the game for a couple of weeks, get over the fact that we got ripped off again, and just stay offline. this is the consistent trend thusfar. fix your online, and you'll see more sales, and more log ons. as for the DD aspect, the only thing that burns me about wii ware and dsi ware is that it's non transferable. i've got a gen one wii (waited 6 hrs in line to get it at midnight launch), it now sounds like a buzzsaw every time there's a disk in it. i can't replace it with one of those awesome looking black wii's, because i've got a couple hundred dollars invested into software on the thing. i should be able to register the second piece of hardware, and download all of my purchased titles to it.
Ubersuntzu's Avatar - Comment posted on 11/08/2009 12:12
Ubersuntzu
@Markusdragon

You're right. One thing I've noticed about the prices on Steam, nothing that was made past the 90's is under $20.
drivenbyfate's Avatar - Comment posted on 11/08/2009 12:34
drivenbyfate
Having always been a retrogamer, the problem I have with digital distribution is the fact that it could make it impossible to buy a game after the console is dead
Knigge's Avatar - Comment posted on 11/08/2009 12:53
Knigge
Iwata talking about anything involving the internet is hilarious to me.
SneakerElph's Avatar - Comment posted on 11/08/2009 14:47
SneakerElph
@Mace

Generally retail games are cheaper because they take up shelf space. Shelf space that can't be used for new games if old games are littering it. DD has no such problem, so they can keep it at whatever price they want.
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