You'd think the retail games world was ending with company directors dumping over 2 million shares of stock. No worries...yet, says one analyst. GameStop is good until about 2017.
Ben Schachter of Broapoint AmTech thinks that GameStop has a few more years before digital downloads get all up in their business. In fact, he doesn't feel that the current console cycle, which is expected to last through 2014, will have much of an impact on their business at all.
"Technologically, full game downloads to a console are feasible already , but limited hard drive space and bandwidth limitations create significant barriers," Schachter told IndustryGamers. "These barriers will obviously change over time, but the timing of the replacement cycle is key. Even if one assumes that by 2014 all new consoles have capabilities that eliminate storage and bandwidth concerns, it will still take several more years before these consoles have significant household penetration."
The analyst points to last year's sales of the download-only Grand Theft Auto content. Even one of the most popular games ever had a hard time selling a digital component.
For me, the date of 2017 seems kind of arbitrary. I'm not an analyst, but I see this coming sooner. I see the impact of downloading hitting retailers sooner. The last 6 games I bought were downloads, and a year or so ago, I would have never saw myself saying that.
Dale North is Destructoid's Editor-In-Chief, a founding editor, and specialist in Japanese gaming. An accomplished musician, Dale was reporting from Japan during the earthquakes of 2011. Luckily, he got the fuck out alive and is home in America now with his wife and beloved corgi, Einstein. Dale is also a co-founder of Destructoid's sister anime site
Japanator. Likes Corgis, Sega Saturn, PSP, iPhone, Photographic tools.
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Contest:
4:40 PM on 10.15.2009
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Wait, what are we talking about again?
I also worry about prices going down. Mass Effect is $30 on Xbox Live. I can get it used for under $15. I normally buy used games and sell all but the ones I really want to keep in a permanent collection when I'm done. I'm pretty much boned when the physical market dries up.
PC or consoles? 'Cause steam has pretty much every game worth having. Otherwise, wait till the next iteration of consoles, which will likely not have disks at all, or at least will do digital releases simultaneously.
2017 sounds reasonable. It's about what i'd expect, though i wouldn't be surprised if it turns over quicker than most anticipate.
The thing about that is it's not representative of the general public. The gaming community is a fairly small, albeit vocal community. I'd be willing to bet that if you walked along the street asking people who owned an Xbox 360 if they were aware of the games that were available for download, and 9 out of 10 will tell you they had no idea, nor do they care since the price is the same as retail.
I have friends who I'll suggest an XBLA game (like Braid) to, and (after explaining to them the concept of the Xbox Live Arcade that they still don't know about) they'll say "Ah, I don't have Xbox Live so I can't get that." People just aren't aware that these things are there, and that you don't need to have a Gold subscription to get them.
A good number of people never hook up their Xbox to the internet at all. I was at my girlfriend's parent's house not too long ago, and their Xbox still has the old dashboard.
People don't know, or care that this stuff exists. Even if you can make it known that it exists, as long as it costs the same as retail it will take a long time to take hold. Sure, I don't have to leave my house to buy Bioshock anymore, but I do need to wait six hours for it to download. I could let it run overnight, draining my internet speeds and running up my power bill, or I can just pick it up at Gamestop on the way home from school tomorrow.
It's going to take a console generation that relies solely on DD for it to take hold. The PSP Go is doing this, though I wouldn't argue that it's a "new generation" of systems. At the end of the day, the general population just stops by the store and looks at the covers and backs of games and buys whatever they think looks coolest. They go home, pop it in, and play. They don't give a shit about DLC or Achievements or any of that, just that it works and they didn't have to wait for it once they decided to buy it. They probably got a better deal at the store, since individual stores can compete and have sales, etc.
I was talking more about consoles since I'm not much of a Steam user yet. That will all change the second I decide to upgrade my PC though. And although I make myself out to be a bit of a "digital distribution fanboy" at times, the thought of downloading 25GB of data still scares me. But for games in the Warhawk and Burnout range, I like the download option.
Not that I disagree with you but we are talking almost 10 years down the pipeline.
I agree. I picked up Tenchu for the ps2. $2.99 to get my stealth on in preparation for Assassins Creed 2. Match that or come close, and I'm on board. How about 3 year old or more games $5-$15?
I love owning physical copies of games. I love having shelves that display my collection, I love having my games stored in my house and knowing that they are secure, even if my hard drive dies, even if my system explodes. As long as games cost more online than they do used, I doubt Gamestop will suffer. Look at Microsoft and their views on Live - they have said before that they do not ever intend on dropping prices. 10 years from now when I want to replay Mass Effect, I would be forced to pay what, $20 for a digital copy? That game is $15 used now, and will be even less next gen. That fact alone is pure bullshit, and makes me want to slap anyone who embraces the "digital distribution age" in the face. The game industry is in enough of a monopoly as it is, I don't need developers deciding how much I have to pay for every game.