No, say it isn't so! What am I going to do... with my life? I'm already scared.
Sandy Duncan, formerly vice president of Xbox Europe, and now head of casual gaming business YoYo Games, says that our beloved game consoles may only have five to ten years left before they go extinct.
”I think dedicated games devices will die [out] in the next 5 to 10 years. The business model is very risky and the costs associated with creating new hardware are incredibly high,” Duncan said to That Videogame Blog in an interview.
“There is a definite “convergence” of other devices such as set top boxes, he continues. "There’s hardly any technology difference between some hard disc video recorders and an Xbox 360 for example. In fact in 5 to 10 years I don’t think you’ll have any box at all under your TV, most of this stuff will be “virtualized” as web services by your content provider.”
Are you on the same page as Duncan? Do you think that "cloud computing" can replace the console? How open are you to this change?
[Via Next-Gen]
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21 comments + 95764 views
I think not.
hahahaha yeah right
I doubt Nintendo will ever do that... I could see MS going that way
Come ON.
Theres no way in hell that'll happen in the next ten years. Maybe in 50 years? But deff not that soon. Microsoft, Sony, and Nintendo are already planning for their next console.
Well...She certainly can predict the future with her glass eye!
Dear Xbox 360:
I want my IPTV!!
Virtual only FTL!
How often do servers crash and what not? Too much for me to adapt to that shit. I can see the route that the new PS4/Xbox 420 being the main entertainment system under your TV as that's pretty much whats happening now.
Sam applies with movies as they say they will be done through data only and I don't see this as too smart of a move and hope it doesn't turn that way as I see to many issues, for example: I own around 400 DVD's how much freaking storage would I need HDD wise to store all that...tons the the HDD goes corrupt and I have to DL all those movies again? I say fuck that noise!
I disagree.
I just realized no one on this site is probably old enough to get my Sandy Duncan glass eye reference.
isn't a console just a pc with an os that runs only a game, with built-in drivers for the controllers? If there is a change, it's a change in how a pc interacts with the game boot sequence. If a PC had a mode to disable all resources being thrown at windows and booted only the game, we'd have quite the power on our versatile hands. aren't all consoles attempting to be pcs on some level anyway (regarding casual pc users at least, but same idea)
Definitely not in 5 years at any rate.
@ Jamn - it was a joke in a Family Guy episode; so yes, they will regardless of age of joke ;)
While it's true digital downloads are the future, consoles are not on their way out anytime soon.
I call bullshit.
That time frame is ridiculously quick.
that's bullshit. i havne't seen one sign point to that happening especially in the next five years.
If you think, for something so big as to consoles to be "extinct" you would see some foreshadow here and i'm not really seeing anything. video games (consoles) are still progressively getting bigger...you CAN'T stop that. sorry buddy.
Oh, wow.
Although it makes a lot of sense for them to want to do that I'm not sure if I like it. If they can pass the savings down to the consumer then I'm all for it, but that's just being naive. I just really don't like the idea of all my media being thousands of miles away unless there is something in it for me (much lower cost).
He's just trying to justify his move into the casual game market.
So.... PCs are on their way out... consoles are on their way out...
Dear lord, are we going to wind up using our electronics only for porn?!? :'(
I can't help but wonder why console makers get so weak in the knees. Yes consoles lose money, (except wii). Yes disc formats change and Internet data streaming doesn't. Yes PC gamers still say their way is the best way to game, (compared to consoles).. But any talk of one console/box to rule them all just says no one is confident in what they're making or offering. Ultimately the "ultimate computer" would cost 2x-5x as much as any console at launch anyways, if not more. I don't think anyone wants to buy the ultimate box that won't do anything the user wants, but instead does everything else by net, virtually, etc.
This could happen someday, but not in 5 years...maybe in 25 years. The amount of processing power and internet speed needed to make it virtual would be insane! It's much easier to have the hardware locally for now.
I think Microsoft employees have a slightly skewed perspective on costs and risks. I would too if my company put out a product with a one year shelf life before it dies. Sony and Nintendo are doing fine at this point.
By the way if you want to talk costs & risks, PC gaming places those burdens on the consumer's shoulders. Is that the route he is suggesting?
Nothing is more funny than making longterm predictions about constantly evolving technologies.
They've been saying this shit for years and it doesn't seem any closer than it was then. Like DJDuffy said, until technology becomes exponentially more advanced (and ubiquitous) it's not even going to start to happen.
@Riser Glen
One word: Plastics.
I keep hearing people say that our lives will be in the cloud in the imminent future, but I just don't see the progress. I like my computer and my console. Hell, I'm personally attached to the computer, having built it with my own two hands. I'm not gonna get rid of it for some dinky set-top box that offloads all its processes on some supercomputer run by MS or Google or whoever ends up being Grand Poobah of the Great Forseen Future.
I don't know...call me old fashioned, but I prefer to have the game (and console) in my hands. I like showing off my collection. I have a Wii and a few VC titles...and I don't like that while I can throw them on an SD card, they aren't physically mine. I paid for them, they reside on my console, Nintendo acknowledges that I bought them...but at the end of the day, I can't put them back in their case and put them on my shelf. I don't know...something about that bugs me. Again, it's probably me just being old-fashioned.
Maybe much later down the road, this will become the next big thing. But I don't think it'll happen 5-10 years from now. That's way too soon.
That time frame seems too short for my tastes. The internet speeds that are required to do what people are predicting will not be available in 5 years. I see people every other day that don't have high speed, and even some that don't have a computer, and they are not always older people. While the technology is intrigueing I don't see it in 5 years, and cretainly see consoles lasting longer than that. I admire people shooting for a lofty goal, but at least be semi-realistic about it.
Sandy Duncan?
This won't happen until, at least, after the next generation. She's out of her mind.
Toasters are the gaming systems of the future.
That Video Game Blog.... Hey! Doesn't that Cowzilla guy work there? Why, yes. Yes, he does.
Anyway, I think 5-10 years is much too short for the death of gaming consoles. The console gaming business is booming and most other people are prophesying the death of PC gaming (also not going to happen). What crazy world does this guy live in where enough people have broadband connections (and quality broadband) to "virtualize" all of these applications?
HAHA fuckers! How's it feel when someone in the industry says that your preferred gaming platform is on the way out? You think they sound pretty stupid don't you?
*hugs his PC*
What everybody else says. I'll add the idea that part of the value of physical media is the effort the consumer needs to put into procuring it. That extra effort can make the consumer feel better about a purchase; there's a sense of anticipation and of purchase-affirmation wrapped up with that effort that instant gratification cannot provide.
So PC gaming is going to die because of consoles, and console gaming because of PCs?
Wait wait wait wait.... distributed computing and digital distribution will destroy consoles? Perhaps it's a good thing he's FORMER vp. I'd say M$ was in trouble if they were still paying this hack.
In five years we will all be using flying cars. tvs will be extinct because we will have image generators right on our eyeballs. Yep, Five years.
@youkilledmyguy: Your comment just made me dumber.
5-10 years? Yeah right! Why is WoW one of the most popular PC games? Because you can play it on a total POS computer.
With our lazy, instant gratification society, isn't a prebuilt, functioning console more convenient than a PC? There's no hassles with drivers, wrong parts, or constant upgrades.
If anything, I see it the other way around, with consoles integrating more PC features.
XBL, VC & PSN are doing nicely with the games, xbla is great for the mini stuff, VC is just like when nintendo got sued by sega for owning the entire market of developers almost, and is releasing its nes, snes, n64, library. and PSN has possibly the 1st game based on this arguement with warhawk.
Despite all the smooth talk and whatever about online numbers on xbl etc etc. theres still way more ppl out there that buy consoles and arent online and probably within thier social circles bitchin the crap about how half of the achievements are online etc.
at least in the UK, broadband isnt free like i know it to be in america in some degree of circumstance.
Wii leads the sales figures but has the worst online networking system. xbl is free but you cant do much with it. unless u upgrade at £39.99 a year which is great knowing they are the premium service, [see latest rainbow 6 vegas 2 fiasco on PSNas example.]
PSN just feels like a glorified website selling stuff most psx or ps2 owners already have, but at least sell items as cash prices, rather than microsoft and thier moonpoints.
Hardware is here to stay. Gaming makes more than the movie and music industry, I hear it all the time. The gaming system of hardware aint broke, and isnt gonna get fixed. only improved upon to bring in more money.
Um....So what's the problem?
Horay for linking to places I write! Booo to no consoles. I likes them.
I could only hope this would happen but it probably won't for a good long while. EVERYTHING should be done server/terminal style from your basic PC needs to games to streaming (not storage) media. It would be a ridiculously better use of resources but there'd be less profit in it probably, so don't expect it anytime before we start organizing our economy for social benefit. (i.e. this side of never.)
"I own around 400 DVD's how much freaking storage would I need HDD wise to store all that...tons the the HDD goes corrupt and I have to DL all those movies again? I say fuck that noise!"
When people talk movies/music etc. as turning to data only it usually is operating out of some sort of subscription service model where you then have access to a full library to be streamed/temp stored at any time, on any device and at any place. I think people get thrown off by this because not only is it a different business model but it also challenges the current 'collector-impulse' based market model for media.
that should be "consumer identity" instead of "market model."
@YouKilledMyGuy
Yes, but in this case they're wrong. ;)
*goes back in time and makes the exact same Sandy Duncan post that Sharpless made, except five minutes earlier than Sharpless so that it will look like he thought of it first*
never gonna happen
That guy is just being a dumb broad because HE is on the way out. I'm not sure what that means.
North America / Canada is gonna get fucked over by a few earthquakes in the next 10 years, the economy will collapse, the eastern block will rush to take over and fail causing global panic, we will be playing tic tack toe in carved turnips.
Or...turning on the hadron accelerator in June does create the mini black holes they thought would happen but they become unstable and start devouring time and matter, global panic, general mayhem, quicker games of turnip tick tack toe.
Or, these things might not happen and we might have another xbox and Nintendo system, sony will do a sega.
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