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Former Microsoft studio manager says Natal will fail photo

Scot Bayless has done time at Microsoft as a studio manager, a senior producer at Sega, and has also held executive roles at Midway, Capcom, EA. He's been around the block. And now he's making the news rounds for calling out Microsoft's upcoming Natal motion-sensing game technology, saying that it's going to fail.

"When I met with Microsoft in 2008 to look at Natal I asked: 'When will you integrate this into the 360?'" Bayless stold Retro Gamer magazine. "Their response was: 'We're probably going to wait and see on that.' To which I said: Then you're going to fail.'"

That's a pretty early call in my book, but he does go on to say taht he feels like the lack of integration could hurt developer interest.

"Plays like this always fragment and the disincentive to developers is powerful; when I'm spending tens of millions on a game, the last thing I want to do is lose 90 per cent of my market."

Again, this feels like a call that's way too early. I'd think with all that experience he'd know that waiting and seeing is the best bet. Who knows, maybe gamers will go nuts over Natal. Besides, calling Microsoft out for Natal's rumored $150 price point seems more solid right now.

Ex-Microsoft Studio Boss: 'Natal Will Fail' [NowGamer]








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Dale North is Destructoid's Editor-In-Chief, a founding editor, and specialist in Japanese gaming. An accomplished musician, Dale was reporting from Japan during the earthquakes of 2011. Luckily, he got the fuck out alive and is home in America now with his wife and beloved corgi, Einstein. Dale is also a co-founder of Destructoid's sister anime site Japanator. Likes Corgis, Sega Saturn, PSP, iPhone, Photographic tools. Meet the rest of the team



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66 comments | showing # 1 to 50
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BMkeys's Avatar - Comment posted on 05/27/2010 12:02
BMkeys
I agree with MR Scot Bayless!!!
CrawlingChaos's Avatar - Comment posted on 05/27/2010 12:05
CrawlingChaos
What is the point of Natal again? To replace the controller or to supplement it?

Meh there needs to be more information on Natal before I can mark it as a power glove.
mix's Avatar - Comment posted on 05/27/2010 12:05
mix
I don't see it selling like hot cakes as most people that buy a 360 are not family based little kids looking for cheap thrills.

Maybe parents will pick it up for their kids for Xmas or if they have a famaily but the Halo playing, CoD shooting, Mass Effect popping, Crackdown showstopping players will not pick this up.
Occams electric toothbrush's Avatar - Comment posted on 05/27/2010 12:06
Occams electric toothbrush
I'm going to wait and see on this. It has potential to be something great but if they just throw out a bunch of shovelware with the promise of a revolutionary experience, it could blow up in their faces.
Mr Andy Dixon's Avatar - Comment posted on 05/27/2010 12:06
Mr Andy Dixon
OMG EyeToy hahaha gay!

Did I do it right?
BMkeys's Avatar - Comment posted on 05/27/2010 12:07
BMkeys
...but then again people will probably buy this shit,

but i still agree with scot bayless!!!!
Electrium's Avatar - Comment posted on 05/27/2010 12:08
Electrium
I wouldn't be surprised at all if he's right. It's happened with so many peripherals in the past.
thefaulk's Avatar - Comment posted on 05/27/2010 12:08
thefaulk
Former employee sour about being fired spreads shit about a new product

sigh
Piellar's Avatar - Comment posted on 05/27/2010 12:09
Piellar
I, for one, welcome our new Scot Bayless overlord.
searchmyday's Avatar - Comment posted on 05/27/2010 12:11
searchmyday
Sure Natal does seem cool, buuuut beside some crappy shitty wii-like casual games that we all saw in those video there's nothing interesting for Natal lol
superjay779's Avatar - Comment posted on 05/27/2010 12:15
superjay779
PSN Please
jawshoeuh's Avatar - Comment posted on 05/27/2010 12:17
jawshoeuh
I see his point. It's a good one. Suddenly you go from having an install base of tens of millions of 360 owners to an install base of who knows how many Natal owners... If a game requires Natal and Natal only shifts like a half million units, your potential customer base just got exponentially smaller.

Still if you develop cheap enough games for launch, and there's not a metric fuck ton of other titles out at launch you're pretty well guaranteed that most Natal owners are going to buy your game just on the basis that they need something to play on their new toy.

I predict a bunch of shovelware as it gets off the ground and if it takes hold and finds its way into more homes quality software will follow.

Personally I'm not sold on Natal or Move, but so far I think the Move combination of wand/nunchuk/eyetoy looks a bit more interesting.
Losari's Avatar - Comment posted on 05/27/2010 12:18
Losari
Pictures this:
Microsoft's E3 press conference suddenly turns pitch black. A spotlight appears over a man, center stage, facing the audience. In a large screen behind him is a ball of clay against a white background. The man uses only his hands and a natal camera to mold the clay into whatever he wants. He proceeds to create a world filled with creatures your imagination cannot yet perceive. Then, he interacts with his creation with gamers across the globe.
The audience is quite for a moment, followed by a sudden roar of applause.

Or they could just do that Cirque de Soleil performance I keep hearing about. That'll win gamers over.
jawshoeuh's Avatar - Comment posted on 05/27/2010 12:19
jawshoeuh
@Piellar

I lawled.
KupoCheer's Avatar - Comment posted on 05/27/2010 12:24
KupoCheer
At that price point, yes, it will fail. Say what you will about the price of buying multiple Wii remotes and nunchucks, but I don't feel that consumers really think about the little costs that add up more than that one big up-front cost they won't be willing to make.

Besides that, if they stripped out the internals of Natal to drop the price and it *still* costs $150, I call bull on that.I'd be satisifed with high cost-high functionality or low functionality-low cost, but not high cost-low functionality.

But I should hold my outrage for an officially announced price.
yenner's Avatar - Comment posted on 05/27/2010 12:25
yenner
The guy has a point. Why would developers drop tons of money on natal games when majority 360 owners don't have natal? Due to the price point, I think most ppl r on the "wait n see" side, including the devs. N if everyone is holding back, then the product isn't going to succeed. Also the arcade natal bundle is kinda silly, since a harddrive is definitely more necessary than natal, n most potential buyers with half a brain will know that. (sorry if I accidently used some silly txt words, I'm using my phone to comment)
Iron Dragon's Avatar - Comment posted on 05/27/2010 12:26
Iron Dragon
The only way natal stands a chance is if developers are actually willing to design games playable both with and without natal to increase the number of units in homes. There in lies the problem however. Given a choice between wonky motion controls and a controller, the Wii has already taught us the controller is the better choice.

And if the $150 price point is true... It'll never take off. I think even at $50 they're still going to have trouble getting people to buy one.
Stigmeyer's Avatar - Comment posted on 05/27/2010 12:31
Stigmeyer
LOL. So they think its the Holy Grail because people will not have to buy a new console this far into the current generation to enjoy the awesomeness...but it will cost $150 just for this alone?? And for the folks without a 360 already it will cost them that much more??? I am going with Scott on this one. FAIL. You didn't see Nintendo 'wait'ing and 'see'ing all over the place, now look where they are. That's right: THE TOP.

In the end, it will only be as good as it's games I suppose, but when you develop tech without a need you WILL get shit product.
Mastrmeatwad's Avatar - Comment posted on 05/27/2010 12:31
Mastrmeatwad
Well, if they had this in 2008, they did wait too long.. I can see his point, and the logic in that thinking-not implementing Natal early on will make it fail, lets hope it doesn't. I would like to think if this and the Sony Move is success than we might see some great things---just speculation because the Wii hasn't done anything really great yet---
Face's Avatar - Comment posted on 05/27/2010 12:32
Face
I can't argue that it will be an uphill battle to win consumers and developers over, launching a peripheral of this size, this late. I'm still not particularly interested, personally.
Minios's Avatar - Comment posted on 05/27/2010 12:32
Minios
@Losari
Either of those would win me over.
Sexualchocolate's Avatar - Comment posted on 05/27/2010 12:38
Sexualchocolate
Fail indeed
GuitarAtomik's Avatar - Comment posted on 05/27/2010 12:43
GuitarAtomik
Introducing peripherals like this obviously fragments the market. I'm wondering if introducing it so late in the game during one of the longest console cycles ever will help in its favor though. This IS about the time that people would normally be buying the NEXT generation of consoles so an add-on like this which adds a sufficient amount of functionality might not be so hard to swallow.

Regardless, I guarantee every one of the next generation of Xboxes come with Natal (and hopefully a hard drive).
PEICanada7's Avatar - Comment posted on 05/27/2010 12:44
PEICanada7
If they charge $150 for it, than yes it will fail for sure!
Monte's Avatar - Comment posted on 05/27/2010 12:50
Monte
I think this guy makes a good point. If natal is not integrated with the 360 then that is going to seriously limit the number of players who have it. How many gamers will be willing to throw down their money for something like natal? It's almost like buying a new console but without the promise of a large upcoming library of games. If the earliest natal games can be played without natal, then how many gamers are gonna want to even bother getting natal in the first place? In a way, natal will suffer the same way the PS3 did; being sold at a price point that gamers do not want to accept and without a library of games to excuse it...

natal will have a better shot waiting for the next generation of consules when it can be integrated into Xbox'x just like Wii's motion controls.

@thefaulk
Who says he was "fired" as opposed to "quit"
Drzog's Avatar - Comment posted on 05/27/2010 12:54
Drzog
And I'm sure developers will find it a joy to spend time and resources to implement the technology in their games, mostly with alot of prodding and nudging by Microsoft to do just that. Remember all the games that had and probably still have terrible support for PS3 six-axis control? Alot of that had to do with Sony basically making developers utilize it, whether it fits correctly into the game or not. I'd expect to see alot of that.
DarthSeaBass's Avatar - Comment posted on 05/27/2010 12:58
DarthSeaBass
I had an idea they might bundle natal with fable 3 for about £80 but if the $150 dollar price on it's own still works out to over a £100 i'm gonna say yeah it's doomed to fail.
ChristRogue's Avatar - Comment posted on 05/27/2010 12:59
ChristRogue
You guys have no idea of the echo-chamber that's going on within Microsoft at the moment. They are all absolutely convinced they have te next coming of Christ on their hands. When I mention the problem with the $150 pricepoint they all just laugh and say "Dont worry, they'll buy it."
Videodrone31's Avatar - Comment posted on 05/27/2010 12:59
Videodrone31
I'm personally interested in the idea of using natal to navagate through the dashboard, my music, things of that nature. Also $150.00 price point is not confirmed and again noone knows what natal is actually gonna be capable of. People are just hating on shit cause it's cool to hate on it. I'll save my judgement until I actually see this thing in action and know it's capabilities in their finished product.
Illuminerdi's Avatar - Comment posted on 05/27/2010 12:59
Illuminerdi
He's 100% correct - without either making it super cheap or free it's going to be a very tough sell to move it beyond gimmicky add-on. It'll have a lot of casual games and downloadable titles, but it'll have little impact on just about any AAA title coming out.

It's a big waste of money, if you ask me.
drzero3's Avatar - Comment posted on 05/27/2010 12:59
drzero3
Scott is sort of right, if natal is not implemented into the system then users aren't going to be forced to try it out. Look at the recent topics about Apple and it's iPhone, the app store was introduced and now we see quality games hitting iPods and iPhones. Developers thought of taking advantage of touch screen features and made a gold mine selling games.

If developers aren't willing to to agree on hardware where is the future of Natal?
To be honest even the creators don't seem thrilled about Natal from Scott's words.
badoli's Avatar - Comment posted on 05/27/2010 13:00
badoli
Ah, come on, people. As far as nobody knows, what titles will come, nothing is for sure. The only question is wether Microsoft can come up with some killer app for that thing. This nevertheless will be the tough one to solve, as Microsoft isn't quite known for it's innovation ability. There is barely any revolutionary title in XBox-portfolio and for a tech like this, you surely need something with a revolutionary touch to it.
And marketing the thing as a "casual-only"-device will rather alienate their customer base than winning new ones.
superjay779's Avatar - Comment posted on 05/27/2010 13:03
superjay779
Don't worry guys. They won't sell more than 5 units. Fail!!!!!! Move is going to sell at least 10 million units before Christmas.
bobyoko's Avatar - Comment posted on 05/27/2010 13:14
bobyoko
since the real thing that moves hardware IS software, success for the natal is dependent on support by third parties. it's obvious that m$ doesn't have the talent to make the compelling software needed, so i guess the current "hardcore" devs are going to have to be sold on this device.

i say fat chance, because if lazy gamer x isn't going to be sold on the AMAZING games that have come out for current motion controlling consoles, it's just not going to happen.
Cahuatijo's Avatar - Comment posted on 05/27/2010 13:19
Cahuatijo
But what exactly does "integration" mean? Did Bayless ask whether it would WORK with the 360 or whether it would seemlessly become another controller for existing 360 infrastructure?
Daniel Williams's Avatar - Comment posted on 05/27/2010 13:23
Daniel Williams
150 dollars, no thanks. *Goes out and buys 4 sets of move controllers*
Etalyx's Avatar - Comment posted on 05/27/2010 13:25
Etalyx
"...a senior producer at Sega, and has also held executive roles at Midway..."

I rest my case.
manadren's Avatar - Comment posted on 05/27/2010 13:27
manadren
Scot Bayless does have a point here. You can't sell hardware without software and software won't be made if the developers aren't comfortable with the install base. That being said MS still has time to turn it around if they can make a commitment to the developers. Sony will have the same problem if they too play the wait and see card, but I'd say they are slightly less vulnerable thanks to the ability to add support via patch to games after release.
wardprod's Avatar - Comment posted on 05/27/2010 13:27
wardprod
Early or not, he is right.
DinnertimeNinja's Avatar - Comment posted on 05/27/2010 13:30
DinnertimeNinja
I think this guys pretty much on the money here.

In fact, I think both Natal and Move will end up being relative failures at the end of the day (though perhaps they can keep the tech for future gens?).

The Wii is successful because EVERY owner of EVERY Wii has access to the same motion controls, as do the game developers. Hell, even the Wii Motion Plus appears to be dead in the water with little support.

You simply can't introduce new add-on tech requiring all new games and expect it to succeed.

Sony might have the upper leg here though because theoretically it might be possible to PATCH in Move support to some older games, creating a base library on day one for a new product. I'm sure it can't be done for ALL games, but it's got to be possible for some.

MS on the other hand has a buttonless interface that, even if they could somehow patch in Natal support to older games, it would be meaningless because only games specifically designed for the thing have any chance of being decent when controlled by it. Also, Natal is apparently a pretty serious piece of tech and likely processor-heavy, meaning any game already using most of the 360s power would have a hard time running with Natal at the same time.
the7k's Avatar - Comment posted on 05/27/2010 13:31
the7k
I certainly feel him. Natal will fragment the 360 user-base considerably. The $150 price point will do absolutely no favors, either. I got a Wii for the same price during Black Friday.

However, I see the same thing happening for the Move, unless Sony tries to keep Move games DualShock3 capable... which would just kill support for the Move.
zeezeezee's Avatar - Comment posted on 05/27/2010 13:35
zeezeezee
uhuh! shit hits the fan! HAHAH
Generic Purple Turtle's Avatar - Comment posted on 05/27/2010 13:44
Generic Purple Turtle
typoe "taht"
Daniel Williams's Avatar - Comment posted on 05/27/2010 13:47
Daniel Williams
@mattrodroid

"Just because nintendo was successful with it doesn't mean sony and microsoft should follow suit."

It's called progress. Building on one's idea's and innovations. Nintendo patented one of the first "traditional" controller setups. It would only make sense for others to follow suit.
flea friend's Avatar - Comment posted on 05/27/2010 13:50
flea friend
At this point, I'm not convinced that motion controllers are the wave of the future that so many in the industry believe them to be. Waving your arm around isn't going to have the same level of precision as tilting a joystick or pushing a button, and it requires a lot of extra room for swinging.

Maybe I am lacking in vision, but I'm going to stick with regular controllers until they really get this motion controls thing down.
matrixdude171's Avatar - Comment posted on 05/27/2010 13:58
matrixdude171
Well, when sony is releasing a controller that does the EXACT same thing, with and without those two handheld parts, it's not exactly that innovative.
True Axiom's Avatar - Comment posted on 05/27/2010 14:00
True Axiom
I fully expect a Wii price drop to $150, followed by all sorts of obscene gestures at Microsoft, from Nintendo at E3.

"You think you can motion control? How about this, bitch!"
Wee SK's Avatar - Comment posted on 05/27/2010 14:10
Wee SK
In terms of the percentage of console owners, I think Move may do a bit better seeing as Media Molecule and other Sony first parties are looking to integrate into some already existing IP's, which gives at least a bit of incentive for the purchase.

Natal, as outstanding as the technology is, lacks some real incentive for owning one. But knowing Microsoft, there may well be a "rabbit-in-the-hat" coming soon in order to shift those Natal units.

But overall, I can't help but feel rather skeptical regarding Sony's as Microsoft's entry into the motion control market.

Then again, everybody felt the same about the Wii, back in 2006...
Dv8thwonder's Avatar - Comment posted on 05/27/2010 14:15
Dv8thwonder
E3 is going to be epic win or lose this year for sure.
Conrad Zimmerman's Avatar - Comment posted on 05/27/2010 14:22
Conrad Zimmerman
This is exactly how I feel about Natal chances of success.
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