Like Gerstmann-gate, this is a time to blog and we bloggers love it, as we get to be pretentious again and satisfy our egos by writing about the same thing over and over again. I am no different, and this issue is no different. This is the
beginning of the end of the HD-format war, with Warner being bought by the Blu-ray lobby group for
allegedly $500million, leaving Paramount, Universal and Toshiba in a difficult position. Or is it really that difficult for them? Haven’t they already made up their minds and the end to format war was already over months ago? Things like this don’t come to the public’s attention nowadays any faster than it did before the internet.
Is HD DVD dead? Yes. It will not be many years before Blu-ray will be the only alternative on the market, and I think by 2009, even by the end of ’08, Blu-ray = El Rey. During the course of this year, Blu-ray sales of both players and discs have increased while HD-DVD took a step back, which is a direct result of the rising sales of PS3 as well as better marketing for Blu-ray. I hate to say it, but Michael Bay was right, and like Mr. Bay says,
whatever Wal-Mart pushes, wins . Marketing and money is everything. The media industry is one dirty business, and will always be won by the
ever raging rein of the almighty currency . The problem for any HD distribution format is the already established mainstream appeal of the DVD. It will take a few years, about 3-4, before we see the sales of HD format discs to surpass the sales of DVD discs.
The death of HD DVD will also mean the death of the Xbox 360. By the end of this year PS3 will have marginalized the gap between 360 and PS3 sales, and developers have adapted to the delicate, intelligent and pain-in-the-ass-hardware that is the Cell processor and the 256mb of RAM (lol?). The 360 is already obsolete and will be even more so by 2009, and by then the next Xbox will have been announced and planned for a 2009 holiday release. That’s right I said it.
Did Microsoft know this was going to happen? Was this a factor in the decision not to include a hd-dvd player in the 360? I am a suspicious man with conspiracy thoughts coming out my ass, so I’ll bet that there was an uncertainty in the Microsoft camp regarding the HD format war. Not including a HD playback device, and painting themselves in a corner with the arcade/core SKU’s point to yes, they were aware and uncertain. So, will Microsoft announce the 360 Ultimate with a built-in HD DVD player? Not bloody likely. There is no need for another 360. There is a need for another Xbox, with IP-TV, 320gb hard drive, built-in Blu-ray player, motion-sensing controls and a hell of a lot graphical power to surpass the PS3. The problem is with the built-in Blu-ray player. Will it actually be there? Blu-ray has become so familiarized with the PS3 that it's gonna be very hard for Microsoft to incorporate it into one of their products. But it seems like Microsoft doesn’t have a choice, because an all-digital-distribution-future is a long away ahead.
Um, too bad 360 doesn't use HD-DVD, it uses DVDs, so your logic has failed.
but this does make the 360 more obsolete and 2008 will be a tough year. by 2009, you won't be buying new games for the 360.
No system is obsolete as long as there's good software still coming out for it. If you're buying a system for the tech and not the games, you're missing the point of gaming.
just for the record, i love my 360 and all the games i have for it. i don't have a ps3 because i don't think it has shown any potential. i'm all for the 360, with its flaws, but it's not going to be around for long.
/blog
Physical discs are old tech
you're reducing my arguments quite a bit here. but thats ok, i could have been more reasonable. but ultimately i don't think this issue helps microsoft. i thought the 360 would see a successor by 2009 a long time ago, and this hd-dvd thing has got microsoft in a weird position. games will require more space and if they wanna go the sony way of having the xbox as a multimedia platform, as they probably do, the death of the hd dvd (which they stood behind) is not a positive thing.
don't you agree?
TBH you may be right about the HD-DVD. I am sad for it, but hey a winner had to be chosen sometime.
What I do disagree with you is the idea that the 360 is done for. It reminds me of a scenario. Two guys want to date the same girl. One guy finally makes the move (We'll call this guy Sony) and gets the date while the other guy is out for now (MS).
Your perception ends the story there, but like so many single minded beings.. it's short sighted. Who knows what the future holds?
MS could go forward with another form as I mentioned in my own cblog, Digital Distros. In the above scenario the girl may grow bored with just Sony and start slutting out to both MS AND Sony. Both will get Aids and Wii will marry her. True story.
And the 360 is not going to die. The install base right now is pretty good considering what the original XBOX did and it is continuing to grow. Also, you're prediction that 2008 will be a tough year for Microsoft is insane. There are many games being released for (most multiplatform) that will match the performance of the PS3.
If you're thinking 2008 is a year that HD movies are going to suddenly explode and everyone will rush to the store to buy a PS3 with a blu-ray, you're sadly mistake. People don't even know how to utilize their TV's HD features. You're also giving to much credit to the public. I don't know many people who even know what a Blu-Ray player is or the fact that a PS3 has one. Those Sony ads don't even do anything of explaining what it is. They just blast the logo expecting the world to know what it is.
Your logic is insane, and by 2009, yeah Microsoft might talk about a new console, but I don't think that'll be released until 2010. The HD movie format wars are not going to make it or break it for any of these companies because movies have nothing to do with games. And really, what does Sony have that's a big killer ap than a property like Halo. Don't say Metal Gear because it's not.
I think last generation's console war can prove that quiet clearly. The XBOX's multi-platform always looked better, but did that affect anything? No, not really. The PS2's install base was healthy enough for people not to care. The games library was large enough that people could ignore the XBOX's online gaming, hard drive, and better graphics.
Since I can't afford a new HDTV yet anyway, it's no rush for me. But the fact still stands that the 360 isn't going to go down because lots of people like Blu Ray. The HD-DVD attachment might. If anything I'd worry more about all the hardware and software issues that come with an XBox 360 mentioned in Sterling's blog, but that hasn't exactly led to some great exodus... yet.
exactly! at least i'm not a douche... but to satisfy scrixx and neonie, i have to go...
/wrist
It'd be more likely for MS to now start embracing Blu-ray, but frankly, I have no interest in HD DVD or Blu-ray.
HOWEVER, I think it'll be a while before we see full HD games being digitally distributed, unless M$ is stupid and thinks everyone has FiOs from the year 2045.
http://www.destructoid.com/blogs/dprime/console-war-victory-jump-to-conclusions-and-you-ll-trip-63150.phtml
YOU sir are going to trip.
Fuck it it's the last post.
very good write up. you make more sense to people than i do, apparently.
i admit it, i was harsh. but i will continue to believe that the two issues are directly linked to each other, because i'm just that stupid.
Well, that’s quite a jump in logic. As others have mentioned, people don’t seem to care that the 360 uses “last-gen” media for its games; multiple discs are fine for even the laziest of gamers. I don’t see MS embracing Blu-ray anytime soon, but I also don’t see them putting out the Xbox 720 by 2009, either. The 360 is still going strong (coming off its best year ever), and it’ll continue to do so. I love my PS3, and I don’t want a 360, but that’s the way things are right now. If/when Blu-ray wins out, it’ll probably help Sony sell PS3s, but it doesn’t really affect the 360.