Going back over Michael Pachter's track record of "predictions" and "analysis", two things come to mind.
A) How many times has he created a bias / bad rap towards an entity within the industry just by pulling stuff out of his ass
B) I can make predictions too, and be right. Hell, I'll do one right now. "Sometime in the near future, someone will try to shove a Wiimote up their rectum." You know there's some nutball freak out there who's going to try it.
One of the latest predictions he's pulled out of his crystal ball comes via GamePolitics
, where Pachter predicts that BestBuy's new "Retail games at Used prices" plan will fail.
I donít think it will do well. The price match means that Best Buy either cuts their profit per game in half, or wipes it out altogether. I donít think that they can afford to sell $60 games for $50, and donít think that it will be effective in the long run. If it does well, then GameStop will cut used game prices to the point where Best Buy canít match without losing money.
So, BestBuy can't afford to lose $10 on the sale of a retail game, a game that's already been marked up to the point where they're going to make a decent profit in the first place. But wait, BestBuy sells more than games, right? Couldn't that $10 lost on the sale of the game be recouped by getting the customer to buy a CD as well? What if they're also tempted into buying a DVD, that's an extra $20 BestBuy wouldn't have gotten if they didn't lure that customer away from GameStop. But what if Gamestop slashes their average retail price for a game by $10, BestBuy's price would go down $10 as well, making a $60 game $40, and leaving an extra $20 in that customer's pocket to buy who knows what. A little increased foot traffic can easily lead to increased impluse buys.
Truely, this man is not the Nostradamus of gaming that he wants to be.