I'm bored; so I figured I'd write a blog about my thoughts on how SOPA will turn out. Warning, possible spoilers lie ahead.
SOPA won't pass, because too many people are against it since it allows the government to do X, Y, and Z. That's way too much power for them to ask for all at once. However, at some point in the future, someone will propose a watered down version of SOPA that will only allow the government to only do X. People will be less resistant to this bill, as it will seem less scary, and people will buy into the propaganda that piracy is a major problem and that only government regulation can stop it. This version will end up passing.
Then some time will pass, and the government will have failed to stop online piracy(like it fails at everything), and we'll be told that they can't win the war on piracy with just X; they need to be able to do Y. People will think, "Well they can already do X. What's the harm in letting them do Y?" So they'll end up getting the power to do Y.
Then some more time will pass, and the government will still have failed to stop online piracy. So they'll tell us that they can't stop it with just X and Y, they need to be able to do Z. People will think, "Well they can already do X and Y. What's the harm in letting them do Z?" Then they'll end up getting the power to do Z, meaning they'll have eventually gotten everything they wanted to get with SOPA anyway.
Then some more time will pass. Piracy will be as rampant as ever, and somehow the free market will be blamed for it. By that time, the government will be using its authority to do X, Y, and Z for things that have absolutely nothing to do with piracy. Some people will argue that we need to get back to the "good old days" when the government only did X and Y, and others will say that X, Y, and Z can work if they just had more funding. Someone will question whether or not the government should even have the authority to do X, Y, and Z in the first place, and they'll be called an "extremist", since, by that time, most people won't be old enough to remember the government not having that authority, and they'll have been fed a bunch of horse shit about how the sky would come crumbling down and we'd all die if the government didn't do X, Y, and Z.