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Apparently I'm a gamer -- hence being here. I've had the Donkey Kong theme stuck in my head since about 1995. It's not as cool as it sounds. It's kind of like hiccuping for that many years.

I'm pretty much a deadbeat Liberal Arts graduate from U of Illinois -- uhm Springfield campus. Started off as a computer science major and switched to English Literature. Why? Because I'm an idiot and I'm still looking for the job that made the switch worth the time and money. I did take a year of Elementary Japanese, so maybe I can BS a translation job. But only if I'm talking to school children. How insulting -- "your understanding of the language is that of a retarded kid!" So I guess that skill only comes in handy for catching one out of four words in any anime I watch and a good laugh when people mispronounce words.

Just finally in August joined the high-falooting "next-gen" with a purchase of the 60gb 360. I always said if a Tales game came to the 360, I'd finally buy the damn thing. Had to eat my words but I'm enjoying it so far.

Systems own: N64, Dreamcast, DS (x2), PSP (x2), 360 (finally), Wii, PS2, and a TG-16 (unfortunately not working)

Apparently I'm a huge Tales of fan -- hence getting the 360 for Vesperia and my Klarth avatar when I signed up. But Repede's too awesome to pass up.

Currently playing: Tales of Vesperia, Viva Pinata, Soul Calibur 4, Final Fantasy IV DS, Mana Khemia, Out of the Park Baseball 9, Sam and Max Season 2 (yeah finally got around to that), Downstream Paniac


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NVGR - NHL East Picks Part 1 of 2
Tug Your God Out | 3:00 PM on 04.07.2008 5 comments


Ok, yeah this isn't video game related unless I throw in a reference to NHL 08 or something but oh well, a lot of the blogs on here not only fail but fail on top of not being game related too so I figure this is ok.

I love hockey. I think it and video games are the only things that keep me sane with all the other shit out there. I have a TV set up right next to the TV that is attatched to all my systems and 9 times out of 10 in the winter months it has hockey playing on it.

I don't know how many other hockey fans are out there on these boards beyond NJSykora, he's the only one I can tell by the name that he's a hockey fan. So maybe this will all go for naught but its what is on my mind and this is my blog.

As some of you may know, the NHL regular season ended on Sunday and Wendesday the first round begins. Today I'll be looking at the four match ups in the West while Tuesday will bring the four Western Conference match-ups.

1. MONTREAL CANADIENS v 8. BOSTON BRUINS

This series should be prefaced by the fact that Montreal won all eight regular season meetings against the Bruins, but you'll hear it about thirty times in the first game that the regular season and the playoffs -- they're two different seasons. Still it's a hard stat to get out of your mind when you're picking the winner here.

Also the Bruins have only won 6 of the 18 all-time playoff series against the two going back to the 66-67 Expansion season.

At the season's start I picked the Bruins to finish 5th in the East, and a lot of people thought I was crazy. But when you look at the man games lost and the injuries they've fought through this season, it's amazing they made it into the playoffs with the last spot.

I think the main story in this series is Montreal goalie Carey Price, a rookie and the goalie Montreal believes will take them to the promised land once again much like Patrick Roy and Ken Dryden did their first seasons. They felt so strongly about Price's ability they dealt veteran Cristobal Huet away at the deadline. Of course the Capitals dangling a second round pick for a free agent-to-be also made the decision easier.

I'm sure everyone will point and say he's only 19 and he has no playoff experience and the Bruins should eat him apart. What most people forget is how he came into the AHL (the main feeder, development league for the NHL and considered the second best professional league in the world -- although yes, the Russian Super League and the Finnish SM-Liiga will make their own cases) and led Montreal's farm team, the Hamilton Bulldogs to the Calder Cup championship in a stellar preformance. He was money in Junior hockey and yes, the NHL playoffs are always a different story but its not like he's void of a track record. Remember, no one really looked at Cam Ward's track record either and look what happened there.

Let us not forget that his fellow goaltender on the other end of the ice, 2008 All-star Tim Thomas, has zero games of playoff experience as well. Thomas is the kind of guy you root for though. Completely unheralded and everytime he's been told he's not good enough, he's found a way to prove people wrong. His path to the NHL took a lot of twists and turns and he bloomed extremely late. I'd love to see him set the world on fire and prove people wrong again and I have a feeling he won't go down without a fight.

The other story that could come out of this is Patrice Bergeron, who's season was prematurely ended on a bad hit by Flyer's dman Randy Jones. At one point we thought maybe Bergeron's career would be over from the resulting major concussion but there's now rumblings that he may try to suit up at some point during the playoffs. Will it be in this first round? Probably not but his comeback would do wonders to inspire this team. Couple that with them upsetting the first seeded Canadiens and Boston would be dangerous.

Unfortunately the Bruins will also still be missing their top scorer in Marc Savard, listed day to day still despite breaking a bone in his back. Savard has become one of the very best centermen in the NHL and it was a shame that he went down so close to the playoffs. They'll also be without Chuck Kobasew, out with a fractured leg in what would have potentially been a surprising 25, maybe even 30 goal season. And just to note, goalie Manny Fernandez is out with knee surgery, but most Bruins fans would point out its addition by subtraction in this case. Although Fernandez is apparently cleared to go for round one. It'll be interesting to see if Thomas faulters if they'll make the switch or just shut Fernandez down for the entire year.

Also recall it was Montreal's Steve Begin's hit that injured Marc Savard. I expect that this one could start off ugly.

Offensively the Bruins will have to rely on Marco Sturm (their remaining top point getter) and Glen Murray, who was supposed to be traded by the Bruins in training camp. Neither are particularly hot of the moment, nor is second year Phil Kessel. They'll have to turn it on and look for someone else to step up if they want to have enough scoring. Rookies Milan Lucic, David Krejci, Vlad Sobotka and Petteri Nokelainen didn't score a lot during the regular season but the Bruins need one of the kids to not be afraid. Sobotka only produced one goal but was a huge spark plug for this line-up after being recalled. Look for him to be the one to step up.

Defenesively the Bruins are led by one of the best in captain Zdeno Chara, the league's tallest player at 6-9 and 251 pounds. I know a lot of Bruins fans are critical of Chara and the contract he received to lure him away from Ottawa but he's easily one of the top five dmen in the entire league and they'll need him to be playing close to 28 minutes to shut down Alexei Kovalev, who gave Chara fits during the regular season. My solution? Put Andrew Alberts on Kovalev and let Chara take out the secondary scoring. He may be one of the best but Kovalev has his number, let's see what Alberts can do.

The rest of the blue line corps aren't particularly amazing but they know their roles. Dennis Wideman may have cost Brad Boyes but his 13 goals and 36 points from the blueline wouldn't have come from anyone else in the system. Montreal shouldn't worry too much about him but it would be nice to at least pay attention to him. Andrew Ference is banged up but should be ready to go. Aaron Ward is on his last lengths but he has a wealth of playoff experience in the form of three Stanley Cups.

Montreal's powerplay will be where they get it done in this series so the Bruins PK unit needs to step up, clicking in at a dissapointing 78.6%on the year. Kovalev, Tomas Plekanec, Andrei Kostitsyn, Chris Higgins, and Andrei Markov all finished with over 10 goals on the powerplay. If the Bruins don't improve that number, it'll be over quickly no matter how much Thomas stands on his head.

Montreal's captain, Saku Koivu missed the last four games of the season with a fracture in his foot and he's questionable for the start of the series but I expect him back shortly but they have enough offense to get away with him missing some games. However, dman Mike Komisarek, who missed the last seven games, needs to be in the line-up and looks like he will.

Who could be a sleeper in Montreal? I don't think they need one but look for Mike Ryder to step it up again. His season was well below his usual mark and rumours of him being traded across the league started to get into his head. He's also sometimes not the most likeable of people.Those rumours are now gone and its a new season. Like him or not, Ryder's been one of the most dangerous men on the power play since he came into the league.

On the blue line Markov leads as always and may not be Chara but the next 6 guys down probably trump their counterparts in Boston. Roman Hamrlik might be slowing down a bit but I think he's still capable of keeping Sturm and Murray in line for most of the series. And there's always Komisarek too.

PREDICTION -- Montreal in 5. I'm giving the Bruins one because it's tough to beat a team 12 times in a year. The last two times the Habs met the Bruins in the playoffs, the underdog Habs upset the mighty Bruins. I just don't see it being versa this time around.

2. PITTSBURGH PENGUINS v 7. OTTAWA SENATORS

We've seen bigger collaspes but Ottawa was atop the East half way through and hit a free fall that saw a very good coach in John Paddock lose his job (oddly enough to the guy he had replaced, Bryan Murray, who had stepped aside to concentrate as the GM of the club) and the Senators almost not make the playoffs. It's hard to imagine they'll defend their Prince of Whales trophy as the Eastern Conference champion this year. Especially as this is a Penguins club no one wants to face.

Even more 'especially' is the fact that the Senators are like a wounded animal. Captain Daniel Alfredsson is out with a knee injury, thanks to Toronto's Brendan Bell. No one knows what exactly the injury is. Some say Alfie will be back for the first round, others say he's done -- stick the fork in him and the Senators. Don't be shocked if they go down 3 games to none or one quickly, if he's not suited up to get the club going, although I doubt he'll play serious minutes in this series unless he's truly healthy.

The Sens are also missing key penalty killer and shut-down checker Mike Fisher. The jobs of the Penguins forwards just got a whole lot easier.

The Senators' goaltending was so inconsistent down the stretch that Murray almost dealt both Martin Gerber and Ray Emery at the deadline. It would have been a contraversal and unprecedented move but he stuck with the date he brought to the dance. I don't know if it'll be a good move but this is definitely Gerber's last shot to stick in the playoffs. I've always been a huge Gerber fan since I saw him play for Switzerland in the World Championships. He's capable of being dominiant and stealing away games he has no business in winning but it just hasn't happened in the NHL playoffs as much as one would like.

It wouldn't be shocking to see Emery get another shot at redemption if Gerber faulters. After all Emery led them to the Stanley Cup finals last year while Gerber struggled. I think the situation with Emery has been blown out of proportion and it's time to just let him get back in the net and tell him to run with the job.

In the Penguins net is Marc-Andre Fleury, who's been criticized since about day one. Actually since about he gave up that bad goal in the World Junior Championships. He's still only 23 folks, he's learning and of course he was going to do stupid things in the net. He fought off a high ankle sprain most of the year but went 10-2-1 after getting his job back from former Green Bay Gambler Ty Conklin. He's looking good and now its his time to win a playoff series (he lost his only one to Ottawa last year.) If he struggles it's not like Conklin's been a slouch this year. He's not your best option for going far but I think Conklin can come in and win a game or two if Fleury needs a game off to get his head straight.

This might be the highest scoring of the playoff games. Of course the Penguins are well known for their young mega-stars. Second year man Yevgeni Malkin finished second in league scoring and Sidney Crosby is hands down the best player in the league even at 21. He missed 28 games this year and still isn't 100% but even an 80% Crosby can be dangerous if Alfie and Fisher are out of the line-up. Some people thought the Pens paid too much for Marian Hossa at the deadline but let's just say it wasn't -- they got to keep Kris Letang after all. Hossa had a down year with all the trade rumours and then the injury after he came to Pittsburgh but Hossa, the former Senator, isn't the easiest guy to check and stay on. He needs to assert himself in the playoffs though....which is the only thing that could make this deal be a bust.

Even after those guys Petr Skyora, Ryan Malone, Jordan Staal and even checkers Pascal Dupuis and Max Talbot can be dangerous. If ancient Gary Roberts is ready (he broke his leg just after Christmas) he could slot to the left of Staal and rookie Tim Kennedy. If you forget about any of these guys, they'll make you pay. So concentrate on Crosby, Malkin and Hossa but don't forget the secondary scoring.

On the blue line Sergei Gonchar, people seem to still forget about him despite being one of the most dangerous guys from the point in. 53 assists, 12 goals. And he has tons of options. Outside of Crosby he might be the most important player on this team to keep an eye on. Ryan Whitney will take whatever opportunities Gonchar can't, while Brooks Orpik and Hall Gill will try to make life miserable for the Ottawa forwards down low. Bruins and Maple Leaf fans will always rag on Gill but the truth of the matter is, he's really not THAT bad. I think they have Robert Scuderi playing a little over his head but he keeps his game simple and its been working for him. I'm a huge fan and believer in Kris Letang but this is his year to sit and watch and learn for the playoffs. At 20 he still makes too many mistakes to be left running around.

Ottawa's not without help up front. Dany Heatley may have lost a lot of time this season but he's healthy now and still one of the most dangerous scorers (and drivers) in the NHL. Jason Spezza is no slouch either with 58 assists but I wasn't expecting another 34 goal season out of him. He's definitely becoming a more dangerous player a lot quicker than I expected.

This is pontentially Cory Stillman's last season but he's always been vastly underrated. He was painful to watch at times coming back from his massively wrecked shoulder but was having one of his better offensive seasons before the trade to Ottawa. He was on pace for his first ever 30 goal season. With Fisher out of the line-up it's time for Antoine Vermette to step up. He developed along nicely this season with 24 goals and 29 helpers while staying strong defensively. He's going to be a key if Fisher misses significant time during the series.

Rookies Nic Foligno and Cody Bass will probably see action game one and better be ready to be thrown into the fire. Of course neither one of them are strangers to the atmosphere from their Junior hockey days.

You look at the Senators defense corp and you wonder how they ranked 24th in the league in goals given up. Of course a lot of it has to do with the troubles of both Emery and Gerber but in the end, the corps needed to be better. Chris Phillips was a bit of an odd first overall pick way back in 1996 and up until this year was criticized of not putting it all together for an entire season. This year he only missed one game and I thought did real well in silencing people.

Wade Redden has been slipping a bit but still is servicable and right now, isn't as bad as people make him out to be. Anton Volchenkov provides a problem for some of the Penguins forwards but both him and Phillips will have to play smart with their reach to shut down the shiftier Penguin forwards. Andrej Meszaros was in my top 4 for the 2004 draft and I thought they got a steal at 23rd. Three seasons in the majors and he hasn't dissapointed, nor missed a game. He has to rely on his positioning a lot more than Volchenkov and Phillips, but might be a better option to shadow some of the secondary scoring with his smarts, mobility and transition game.

Mike Commodore is/was probably one of the most improved players in the league this year. He turned himself into a bit and role player into a legit NHL dman that can eat up minutes. But he seemed to take a step back after being traded to the Senators. That worries me. Is Commodore a great player on a bad team (not that Carolina is THAT bad) but only a medicore one on a great team?

Rookie Brian Lee and the ancient Luke Richardson round out the Ottawa blue line and with the Penguins being rather speedy -- I'd expect Lee will get the nod over the experience of a Richardson. It'll be interesting to see if Lee adjusts to the playoff atmosphere quick enough.

PREDICTION -- Penguins in seven. I know a lot of people are looking at the Senators as sitting ducks and the Penguins will avenge their opening round defeat to the Sens from last year, but I think this is still going all the way. I just have this gut feeling that it won't be over too quick.

Part two will be later I guess. Probably will be shorter. Depends on how many hockey fans we've actually got on here.



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3 comments | showing # 1 to 3
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GrayFox's Avatar - Comment posted on 04/07/2008 17:57
GrayFox
Haha, awesome.

Habs in 5
Pens in 5
Washington in 5
Can't decide between New Jersey/NY

Should be an exciting playoffs. I'm pumped to see what Ovechkin will do out there.
GrayFox's Avatar - Comment posted on 04/07/2008 18:17
GrayFox
Also, this is a very good and ridiculously comprehensive analysis of all the teams, nice work. My only objection is when you said that Crosby is the best player in the league. OVECHKIN man.

Anyway it's always nice to see Americans who like hockey, it's a great sport. It's got the physicality of football, the pace of basketball and is by far the fastest game. Plus, fighting is legal, which still blows my mind after all these years.

If only the Leafs didn't suck so hard.. :(
Tug Your God Out's Avatar - Comment posted on 04/07/2008 18:35
Tug Your God Out
You can't go wrong with either one. it's going to be an amazing career rivalry and they're going to be the cornerstones of the NHL for at least the next decade.

Ovechkin's already striking at 70 goals, I'm really surprised he only got 65. And still with little help -- granted Backstrom finally started to come around and actually posted darn good rookie numbers himself.

I'm obviously a Blues fan but really I'm more into following Junior Hockey lately -- mostly the USHL and the NAHL as the USA's two top development leagues.

You guys should have tanked for Stamkos. Granted Kubina and the lot saying no to their trades made that a little harder. Still will wind up with potentially something nice.

Hoping the Blues win the lottery but I'll be fine with a Beach or Schenn or Pietrangelo.
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