So, as you might know by now, Wii sales aren't doing so hot. The former champ of the console world has seen sales cut in half, thanks to a crappy economy and price cuts from competitors that offer a better deal. But even though a Wii pirce cut is planned for the end of the month, I can't help but wonder if it's too little, too late. No, the Wii isn't going to drop off the face of the Earth or anything, but I think it might just fade from our collective consciousness under a barrage of Xbox 360, PS3 and PC titles, to the point that it doesn't even exist in a mental sense. It sounds dumb, but it could really easily happen: how many people forgot the Gamecube was around when the PS2 and Xbox were dominating the scene, for example?
Such a set-up would essentially make the Wii another Dreamcast, except I don't expect it would kill Nintendo, just change their plans immensely for the next generation of consoles. But how exactly would something like this come about? To do that, we have to look at what makes the Wii so dismissed by core gamers right now, the same people who abandoned and later reunited with the Dreamcast.
Some will say it's all about graphics. Well, that plays a part, yes, but the PS2 was the least powerful of all three consoles last generation (meaning Gamecbue power > PS2 power) and yet we got titles like Final Fantasy XII, God of War and Shadow of the Colossus that were absolutely gorgeous and kicked the crap out of most of the Gamecube and Xbox libraries. Considering the Wii is more powerful than the Gamecube was — though the two share some parts — there is no reason so many Wii games look awful other than total laziness on the part of third party developers who want a quick buck with a PS2 or Xbox port to the Wii. That also explains the immense amount of shit shovelware on Nintendo's little console.
Some say its "the forced waggle" the Wii remote brings. Yes, Nintendo has motion controls at the forefront of their mind in development, but they are NOT forcing anyone to use waggle or the pointer or any other special features if they choose not to. And waggle or not, there are plenty of good games on the system.
That of course, brings me to the last thing people say: the library sucks. There are no good Wii games except Nintendo's. And to those people, I still simply ask them to open their eyes: Blast Works: Build, Trade, Destroy, The Conduit, De Blob, Elebits, Kororinpa: Marble Mania, Let's Tap, MadWorld, No More Heroes, Zack & Wiki: Quest for Barbaros' Treasure. None of these games are awful and yet they all still sell poorly. The Dreamcast at times suffered from this same problem, yet today we find so many quality Dreamcast games that were passed over by the majority of the console's owners in its lifetime.
While it's not the exact same set-up as the Dreamcast's fall (we're not talking about cheap DVD players here), the story is more than a little bit similar: Console debuts and revolutionizes the gaming world. Console jumps out to huge success. Rival consoles quickly dwarf it and kill sales. Except this time, it's the future motion controls, the digital marketplaces and the online multiplayer capabilites of the PS3 and Xbox 360 that are ultimately going to put the Wii in a bad, bad place. If Nintendo can't come out with a more powerful and still relatively inexpensive Wii, then it's doomed to fall off the radar as Natal and the PS3 Wand deliver what the Wii remote does, just with a shinier package and the ability to play with friends all over the world easily. It's bad news for Nintendo and likely to make their next console much more traditional. While that's good on the graphics end, a non-innovative Nintendo is bad for the industry, as they are one of the few major innovators left.
In 10 years, I would expect that like the Dreamcast, the Wii will have a renaissance of sorts among collectors who start picking up some of the above mentioned titles out of bargain bins at their used game shops. They'll sit around and wonder why the console never caught on and had a massive drop-off in sales in 2010, while Nintendo survived and put out a PS3-like console as its replacement. And they'll never remember that a total lack of support from them and from developers was the reason the Wii became a classic console like the Dreamcast. Except this time, they can't say they could never afford it as an excuse.
When the majority of households already own one, you can't sell them two. Honestly, I will maintain that the Wii doesn't EVER need to cut it's price. $250 is fine, and affordable. The ONLY reason hardcore gamers are digging their heels before purchasing is the negative "casual/waggle" stigma behind the Wii, and the fact that it has like 1/10 of the shooter/action/fighting game market, which make up a huge part of game sales.
The Wii could go out of production right now and it would be considered a success, historically.
The Wii isn't going anywhere and Nintendo has already made a shit ton of money already off the thing and continue to do so. Besides all Nintendo needs to do is put out another Mario, Zelda, or Pokemon and BAM...money in the bank.
A better analogy of a Dreamcast 2.0 is the original Xbox. So short lived and yet with an awesome library of games. Jet Set Radio Future, Gunvalkyre, Panzar Dragoon Orta, Otogi 1 & 2, Deathrow, and many more.
The Wii has satured the market for 3 years now , there is so much hardware bought by consumers that there is no need for them to buy more. The demand is not very high also during the 3rd business quarter of a fiscal year and wait and see what will happen when Mario and all that stupid shit (I love Mario games I'm just making a point) will drop on shelves for the holidays.
In my stores we sold 3X the amount of Wii system SKUS that we did in a complete year. People want the Wii only when they need it and when they have the money to spend.
ON THE OTHER HAND TOUGHT!
A lot of consumers bought the Wii in the first place because it was cheaper and it was "Revolutionnary" and they're starting to realize that you're not going to find an advance online service and triple A adult games and blockbuster hits. They want Call of Duty (Not Ports but the upgraded version) they want Blu-Ray players and Media Libraries , ect.
We are seeing a market shift in the way that most consumers are willing to spend money now on more powerfull console because of the price drops and because of their entertainement value.
If that's the direction things start to go in, Nintendo could just price drop to $99 like they did with the Gamecube. With all the quality, "B" grade but big franchise games coming to the Wii right now (Crystal Bearers, Silent Hill: Shattered Memories, Dead Space: Extraction, Tatsunoko Vs Capcom, Resident Evil: Darkside Chronicles, etc), it's hard to image that even the most "hardcore" wouldn't be tempted to pick up a Wii at the meager price of $99.
That, and Dragon Quest X is a planned to be a Wii exclusive. So yeah, Japan isn't ever going to "forget" the Wii.
There are a lot more reasons why I don't think the Wii is going to lose it's position as market leader over the next two years. The console's cheaper, more accessible, more genre-varied game library for one, the continually increasing support of third parties is another. That said, when the Wii 2 launches in 2011 (or sometimes thereabout), that'll be a different story. I strongly suspect that the Wii 2 is going to fail pretty hard. Nintendo has a long track record of screwing up when they are in the lead, and I think that with Microsoft and Sony copying the Wii playbook in the near future, both companies are going to be tough to beat.
But hey, what do I know? I'm no more right or wrong than you are. Just pissing in the wind like everyone else.
So many times have they deviated to Call of Duty or Halo or anything that is not good on the system or not on the Wii while I was proposing the gold mine of good games.
As for the shovelware , trust me on that , people buy that shit. They don't care.
If there is anything we are learning from this generation, it's that most people don't care about incremental upgrades like Blue Ray and HD, nor do consumers care about all-in-one media players. You can't even say most consumers want a more powerful console because neither the PS3 or the Xbox 360 have ever outsold the wii in a given month since the wii's launch.
@ NihonTiger: You do realize that the Wii is actually selling at the same levels as the PS2 was 3 years into it's life cycle, in spite of still not having a price cut? And that it's still outselling both the PS3 and the Xbox 360?
It's as moronic as saying the PS2 was going to die, 3 years into it's life cycle. Honestly, I think it's more likely that the PS3 will die than the Wii.
No seriously, I think it's very likely we won't ever see a PS4, if the current trends continue.
I'm just asking to you work in retail like I do?
Since the beginning of the year , me and my staff have recommended more PS3s and XBOX360s to Wii owners than ever before. Does it means they are going to buy it right away? No ! We are exposing a perspective that is different and similar to what they are looking for. If you heard all the people complaining that there is nothing more on the Wii and how much they are willing now more than ever to spend money on a second console. I'm not saying that the Wii is inferior , what I'm saying is that people what more Consoles. They want a PS3 along their Wiis.
It was the Saturn. Sure, it had some good games but how many never came out in the states? The DC fell flat here because the world was still in its mascot era and the Saturn never got its Sonic game. Sonic Jam didn't count, and Sega would go to have Sonic Jams for every console in the generation after it. But yeah, a lot of people lost faith with Sega with the Saturn and the allure of the first PlayStation was too strong to resist.
Brand appeal is a big deal when it comes to consoles. Tell me, don't most people you talk to attribute their interest in a PS3 based on the successes of its predecessor? This worked for Sony once before, taking the world by storm with its PS1 and totally destroying the market with the PS2. This worked inversely for Sega. People dissatisfied with the Saturn likely jumped ship to Sony and stayed with the brand even when word of a new Sega system coming out. Why not buy it and wait for the PS2? People felt burnt by Sega for what happened then and refused to support their new system, and we can't forget console fanboyism. Yes, it existed back then, let's remember!
I do wonder how the next generation is going to go. It's a long ways off (so they say), but with the sheer amount of people who so-vocally hate the Wii, owning it or no, I'm not entirely sure Nintendo is going to come out looking all the better.
I'm gonna go with : With games on the far off horizon, like the next Zelda, DQ X, I don't think the wii will die.
Also try to say "wii will" 5 times, but fast.
Still, it's fun to wonder.
I can't say I work in a video game store, and I don't hear the complaints you hear. the closest thing to an understanding of the buisness side comes from reading the articles on this site: http://malstrom.50webs.com/birdman.html
However, can you honestly tell me that the people who gave Wii Fit and Mario Kart Wii 8-digit sales figures have an interest in anything on the HD consoles? I would think they would have a greater interest in Nintendogs than anything on an HD console.
People actually were saddened by the possibility of the Dreamcast dying
Anyway this is becoming serious talk , we could go on for hours but I guess you see my point.
Perhaps it's a bit early to call this, as Jimbo and Holmes said. For all I know, things could change in six months. Nintendo still has some big aces up their sleeve in franchises they haven't touched on the Wii, and while they've been criticized for not bringing out a Star Fox and a F-Zero game for their console yet, it's smart because they haven't blown their load all at once.
And some of you do bring up a good point that it isn't all about graphics. I would say I tried to argue that in my post above with my PS2 example. It wasn't the most powerful and didn't have the best looking games, but it had enough of a support base from third parties and enough diversity - things the Wii lacks and the Dreamcast somewhat struggles with - to be a success regardless. Oh, and the cheap DVD player thing helped a hell of a lot, too.
The point I was trying more to make with all of this has to do with the Wii's perception and how it will likely be treated both now and in the future. I don't know if the Wii will turn into another Dreamcast yet, but it's a possibility. It's a possibility I hope doesn't happen, though.
Let me assert this again: Even if my scenario above played out, Nintendo is not going to die like Sega did. They will make another console and the DSi will soldier on as champion of the handheld market.
I mean the Wii has a decent amount of Wii games going for it. then the Virtual Consoles are surprisingly going strong. (Whatever happened to the import part of the VC? I was happy for it but outside of Sin and Punishment, I haven't heard anything on it.) The system's nice, but it needs to stop the shitty shovelware that towards the casual gamers that probably won't return later.
I can see the connection between DC and the Wii. But even now I still cherish my Dreamcast. My Wii well...when the good games hit, I'm more than willing to set it up and play. Like now. Whenever I find some money, Muramasa. then No More Heroes 2.
No, I don't see your point. Maybe it's because I'm a late-teen gamer who has been so bored by consoles at this point he decided to take up reading instead. Maybe if the HD twins weren't even more boring than the Wii in my eyes I would agree. Maybe if having bought Little King's Story, Zak and Wiki, and Mad World I believed they were titles worth purchasing I would agree. But I don't agree.
The HD twins are full of confusing difficult to learn crap that play like movies I would never watch, all the titles you mentioned I found overrated (except Mad World, which was just too short), and frankly, the Wii seems to actually be the best system for my kind of core games. Admittedly, that Halo Wars is a million seller bothers me, but why would you not suggest Halo 3? It's the only freaking game on the Xbox 360 that can be played with guests while online! That's a very important quality to people who like playing with friends.
I can't say what all people are like (i.e. that all the sales are from families who don't like the wii), but I can speak for myself. I keep the Wii because it has pokemon puzzle league, tetris online, Mario, and Zelda (and that virtual console selection). I very much enjoy Halo, and I loved GTA: Vice City, but GTA: IV was very disappointing and I would not buy an Xbox to play it (my brother's; he's the onle who buys all the bad Halo games). While I admit No More Heroes was in fact awesome, just about all the other "core" games just aren't all that great to me. I played Fallout 3, and found it too brown. Played through an hour of Bioshock before I thought to myself "Am I having fun?" and realized the answer was no. Ended up loving the DS as the best system because of Phoenix Wright, Pokemon, New Super Mario Bros., Yoshi's Island GBA, and Donkey Kong Country 2 GBA. And to be honest, there is no excuse for me having more fun playing Donkey Kong Country 2 than the games that came out fifteen years later. Years of evolution in gaming should not be as of yet unsurpassed by games of 15 years ago, which had much greater hardware restrictions.
Incidently, I do admit Wii Sports Resort is awesome. I would totally suggest that to anyone who complains that the Wii has no games right now.
"Perhaps it's a bit early to call this, as Jimbo and Holmes said. For all I know, things could change in six months"
I don't think things will change: I rather think they'll stay exactly the same. But again, this is about the Wii already being saturated, not how it's "beginning to fail".
Epic sales with Epic numbers of fail software. There's some good games, I'll admit. Twilight Princess alone was worth purchasing my Wii for. However, even my poor selling PS3 has exponentially more content worth buying and keeping me entertained than the Wii.
For me personally it might be that the Wii games make me just want to stop playing video-games and go outside and exercise for real.
Despite it's lowest sales records, I still stand by my belief that the PS3 has the most exclusive games that have taken my interest.
Let them rock.
Plus, new idea- the Wii will always been known for the console that brought motion controls to the masses. Even if the console totally flops from here on out, it will always be remembered for at least that.
My point? Well, the first console to try at real motions controls was what? Yeah, that's right, the Dreamcast! Samba de Amigo and Sega Bass Fishing both used Wii-style motion controls, and both were fairly awesome. They just weren't in the right place at the right time.
So you're right, the Wii is the Dreamcast 2.0.
That makes you a super genius.
Here's your semi-sexy Cammy cosplay
Please, don't hide this blog. It's a well-thought out interesting read. It's pretty clear that you weren't just saying that the Wii was going to be the end of Nintendo, and I especially liked the point you made about it having a renaissance among collectors.
Be a man, stand up for what you think. Also, fapped.
Frustration be damned. Debate, gentlemen. And ladies, if you are here.
on that note, i'm actually somewhat happy for the price cut. I sold my dad's wii and gave him mine. Now I can rebuy it with no shame, give him that one and take my Wii back. I'm already behind on some of those downloadable games and I need to get ready for the few games I want. Of course this is all after the PS3 purchase.
but yea. I don't see this as the end of the Wii. Sales will go down, but like most companies, they'll find something to either bring in new people or the current owners of the system. Plus kids are always moving out and will need to buy one for themselves for college or the sort.
slowdown? Sure. But at this rate, Nintendo doesn't really have an excuse to give us 1st party titles that aren't Mario Metriod and Zelda. (coughFZEROcough)
But the Wii isn't supported by core gamers, it's supported by expanded market gamers. And presently, they show no signs of abandoning it. As was already pointed out, the Wii's sales are still very good despite being down. And even if they do flood the market with consoles and really slow down sales, they'll make a killing on software sales (like with Wii Sports Resort). Not to mention Nintendo makes a hell of a lot more profit off their little white box than the other guys do since the Wii is a lot cheaper to manufacture.
I don't know how Natal and the Wand will fare, but I'll tell you now that motion controls were only the "bait," so to speak. What set the hook and reeled in the expanded market was the easy-to-play games they had going on. I doubt that people will be more excited for Natal and the Wand than the Wii just cause they're shinier, because we've already established that graphics don't matter to the success of a system. It's the games and content that matter. And Nintendo already has the games that the expanded market wants. MS and Sony have an awful lot of catching up to do if they even want to come close to tapping into the market that Nintendo has cornered currently.
Nintendo has recently screwed themselves yet again by lowering the Wii's price. By lowering the price they sent a message to the customers that they are competing against Sony and Microsoft, that they are a threat, that they are in any way equal to them. Huge mistake that very few game sites are catching on too.
Nintendo has been screwing up royally since about Summer '08. Strike one was killing off the Wii's momentum with Wii Music (A user-generated content game meaning a no-content game). Strike two is chocking the Wii's credibility with this price cut (now everybody is going to think that the Wii is a lesser console that sells to "casuals" only and that it's probably still continuing high sales are because of it's low price and not because of it's great games (Morons! WSR was already bringing the Wii's sales back up and NSMBW and WF+ would have skyrocketed them. Why the **** did they price cut!?). Nintendo still hasn't lost, but if they make some dreaded Strike 3, then you can consider them lost (and in the same dead end situations as Sony and Microsoft). I only hope that somebody in that company gets their head back on straight and resets them to their glorious 2006/2007 time, before it's too late.
But don't just take my word for it. Check out Malstroms blog and site if you really want to understand.
Blog: seanmalstrom.wordpress.com
Site: malstrom.50webs.com
OOooh yeah. You want my to put my finger in there.
I don't think anyone in here is actually pissed off. <3
Personally, why weren't there cries of this when the PS3 dropped its price? ohnos sonee sees wee an exbocs as thret Come on, now. You have to realize that the Wii's main advantage for the longest time was that it was a lower-priced console in comparison to the other two. Staying at $249 when you have an Arcade at $149 or a PS3 at $299 is tenuous territory. After all, lowering the price could be a way to push even more consoles out into the saturated market. Ask your parents about (or if you're old enough, remember) the gasoline price wars in the 70s here in the States. Lower prices = consumer wins. Besides, Sony hit gold with the PS3 slim and a price drop, as many people were on the fence until the price came down. Maybe a price drop would work for Nintendo in somewhat the same way? And, Ninty is the last console to drop its price.
Imagine if you will, if they dropped all the way to $99. "o gods its ovar" No, but then everyone would really be buying it. I bet Nintendo would lose a lot of money that way, but just imagine. For the price of about one and a half or two games, you can have a whole console. Won't be happening anytime soon, but just a thought. =P
Aside from the points I made in my third paragraph in my first post, it also loses customers rather than gaining them. Anybody who was waiting on the Wii for a price cut now will wait longer. After all, if they price cut once, who says they won't do it again (S/M both price cut their consoles multiple times)? And seriously, it's only 50$ less. Was that really that big a deal? Are there really any customers that thought they'd go without food if they bought a Wii at 250$, but at 200$ see it as a steal?
Also, I love the misconception that the Wii sold because it was cheaper than the other consoles. The Xbox 360 Arcade has been 200$ for quite a while now, but that hasn't made it even close to impacting the Wii's sales.
Media didn't talk up the Wii because of it's price. Katie Couric talked about the Wii because of it's games. We haven't seen the media so positively reacting to games since the NES era. In that same vein, people bought the Wii because of the games. Wii Sports and Wii Fit are more appealing than Metal Gear Solid 4 or Gears of War (selling a ****ton more is all the proof I need)
Nintendo should never have acknowledged S/M. They have not been in competition with them. While the big HD dinosaurs have fought each other in the warzone of super-expensive tech and "Hardcore" games, the small rodent Wii has been preparing itself for the great meteor (another game crash) with it's focus on expanding gaming (both to people and the perception of what a game is). Considering how much more the Wii has sold than the Xbox/PS, I don't know how any person can honestly think that Nintendo is in any danger from S/M, or should have acknowledged them. I thought S/M's motion controls would wake people up to the Wii as the victor, but I hoped for too much.
Sony hitting gold with the PS3 Slim? That's a laugh. They more likely hit a sewage valve. They were already losing tons on the classic PS3's, and now they lose even more on the Slim. People don't buy a console because it's cheap. They buy it for the games. Sony didn't have worthwile games at 600$, and they don't have worthwhile games at 300$. I'll have a great laugh when the PS3 Slim's sales drop back into classic territory, and the "Hardcore" try to explain it away.
That "gasoline" example is not correct to correlate gaming to. With gasoline, the only thing you can offer is a better price. The only strategy is undercutting the competition. The 2 home gaming systems out now (the Wii and the HD twins) offer vastly different experiences. The Wii has it's expanded market games, while the HD Twins have their "Hardcore" games. More people are interested in the Wii's games than in the HD Twin games.
Your last paragraph is, to put it frankly, just idiotic. You asked me what would be bad about dropping the Wii's price. I already gave you major reasons in my first post, and another at the beginning of this one. Yet then you go and make this post highlighting a more obvious reason why a lower price is bad for the Wii. It will make less money. Selling a million dollar game one million times is better than selling a 10 million dollar game 5 million times (you understand what I'm trying to say, right?).
I can't explain any better than that. My recommendation? Read Malstroms blog and site. He explains much better than I do. I put up the addresses in my first post. Go and learn something, or better yet, unlearn what you've currently learned (I saw another Dtroider write that, but I can't remember his name. If I could I would credit him).
I'd hardly call it trashed and showered when only me and HCapt mentioned him, and we both wrote thought-out posts that did nothing to personally attack Nihon.
The reason we mention Malstrom is because so many people (including Nihon) are misinformed. They put their own takes on Nintendo's business with the constant threat of "Doom" at it's footsteps. How the hell is the market leader, that has been outselling it's competition by ****loads, for years, in any danger (aside from itself, as I've mentioned)!?
Malstrom is a real student of business that analyzes the Wii's impact without putting his personal feelings into account ("This isn't personal, this is strictly business"). If you read his blog, you will notice that he does like the Wii (while feeling nothing for the HD Twins), but he doesn't let it affect his points (he himself has attacked Nintendo for it's stupid User-Generated Content era and lowered price of the Wii).
As for the Blue Ocean, there is not a single credible business school today that doesn't make "The Innovators Dilemma" and/or "The Blue Ocean Strategy" required reading. They are that important. Nintendo themselves have mentioned the books and used their terms for the past few years (to the point that people think they invented them).
I refuse to think the Wii is saturated. I haven't got one yet. And so many others with me. Nintendo could still win me over.
So in other words: Nintendo Wii ~ Sega Saturn
xbox is now at 8 billion loss and a 21 billion investment before xbox 1 all spent also and natal is a PHANTOM a eyetoy plus being marketed as a savior to gaming and a wii killer MARKETING HYPE its a phantom to try slow down wii
thanks giving 2009 owned by nintendo console and handheld's and November and December 2009 will be owned by nintendo.... the 1st Q1 of 2010 will also be wii DS owned.............. ps3 wands early 2010 will have no more than a 1 good month
malstrom has predicted this generation and trhe future of gaming
as has WIIBOY101