It's been a while since I've gotten to sit down and write one of these up. Normally, the list is related to games in some regard, complete with pictures and so on, but tonight, it's not going to be a list of the 10 Best Games With Food or the 10 Best Smash Bros. Characters or anything like that. It's time to put on my wizard's hat and beard, turn down the lights, get out the crystal ball and start predicticating what the big stories will be this year. I came up with a bunch of them, but the 10 listed below are the ones I think have the best shot of coming true.
So with out further ado, here's:
Gaming Predictions for 2008
10.) The next-gen versions of the DS and PSP will be shown off in prototype form, but won't be available for at least another year.
The PSP and DS are both starting to age, and while they're still getting good games, the games don't seem to be coming quite as often on both handhelds. Though the successors for both handhelds are probably two years away, we can expect to see or hear about the next-gen prototypes for both the DS and PSP. Of course, they'll be filled with all kinds of crazy rumors and wild speculation until we get official confirmation towards the end of the year that both handhelds are in development and maybe just a taste of what's to come.
9.) Nintendo will buy out Game Arts and pick up Lunar and Grandia in the process.
Don't be surprised at this. Nintendo has a history of buying out developers who impress them. Retro Studios does a great job with Metroid Prime? Bought. Monolith blows Nintendo away with Disaster: Day of Crisis? Same thing. And now, with Game Arts being part of the Smash Bros. team, and with two lucrative RPG franchises under their belts, I can see Nintendo moving to at least try and buy Game Arts, especially if Smash Bros. Brawl is as good as Famitsu is making it out to be.
8.) EA will finish the deal and buy majority shares in Ubisoft.
With the success of Rock Band and EA's other titles, and for a reason that will be mentioned a little later, EA will have money. Lots of money, and no desire to swim in it. Instead, they're going to turn their eyes on a company they have a stake in already, and the long-rumored... um, rumor will come true: EA will buy controlling stake in Ubisoft, but they won't own the whole thing. Instead, it'll turn into something of an alliance, with EA pumping much needed cash into Ubisoft while Ubisoft works on games that will be released under the joint Ubisoft-EA banner. Also, the Rabbids will get the spin-off game they totally deserve. Daaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaah!
7.) Wii Fit, Smash Bros. Brawl, GTA IV, Spore and MGS4 will be the top 5 selling titles of the year.
And yes, that's the order they'll be in. Wii Fit will appeal to casual Wii owners in a way Wii Play wishes it could have. People will buy it by the truckloads. It will sell at least 2 million copies, if not more than that in 2008 alone. Brawl will sell immensely among both casuals and especially among hardcore gamers, who have been waiting for this title forever. GTA IV will appeal to fans of the series, which is... well, it's a lot of people, not to mention that the game engine has been revamped and people will want to test it out for themselves. Spore, if it makes the expected release date, is the next Sims. People love Will Wright's work, especially people like me, and they'll gobble this title up. Lastly, Metal Gear Solid 4 will sell well to core gamers and PS3 owners who will be looking for something, anything to buy for their system by mid-2008.
6.) Blu-Ray's victory in the format wars will help PS3 sales, but at the end of 2008, it'll still be 360, Wii, PS3.
The PS3 has become the cheap Blu-Ray player, and with the 40GB being the last PS3 standing, it seems Sony is trying to push their console as just that: a Blu-Ray player that does a bunch of other things, including playing video games. It'll help push sales... but it won't be enough. The 360, spurred by more reliable console units and a diverse line-up of games, will sell well. The Wii will sell well thanks to games like Wii Fit and Brawl, but the problem is that third-party support will not be as strong as it needs to be for the Wii to overtake the 360. Expect it to be a closer race... but no big changes.
5.) F-Zero Wii will finally be announced and I can rest easy.
Perhaps the one thing that has been driving me insane is that we still do not have any word on a new F-Zero game for the Wii. There's plenty of reason this should be made - beautiful graphics, getting racing games on the Wii, the Wii's online capabilities for up to 30 racers simultaneously at once... need I go on? There's no reason this game should not be made, and as a fan of the last F-Zero game - F-Zero GX - I see no reason that they can't build a successful F-Zero game on their current-gen console. And if they don't... I will be
pissed.
4.) There will be no droughts.
The next three all kind of tie together, so stick with me here. In 2007, we had a ton of games, but during the summer, we had a pretty bad gaming drought. On one hand, I caught up with my gaming backlog, but on the other hand, I wasn't buying new games. Just looking at the 2008 line-up, there are plenty of titles coming out throughout the year for all three major consoles, with few breaks in between. The end result is that we'll always have something new to play. However, as a result of no droughts among other things...
3.) Sales will be down from 2007's numbers.
When you have too many choices, alongside an economy slumping into recession, the people who were buying games as luxury items in 2007 will not be buying them in 2008. Hardcore gamers will be overrun by the fact that so many good games will be available that they will have to choose which games to play and which to hold off until much later, when they have time to tackle them. Here's the bad news, especially if you're Nintendo: those casual guys and gals are the ones who are going to jump out of buying games first. To them, games are a novelty that aren't that important, so they'll forgo buying them to buy other things. But it's not so much doom and gloom, because one thing will come out of it...
2.) The hardcore will take back the focus of developers, but casuals won't be forgotten.
The guys who stick around, the core gaming community, will be rewarded because developers and publishers will need to sell to them to stay afloat. That means focusing game design and development to reflect more of what core gamers in every genre want. It doesn't mean that casuals will be totally brushed aside, but it does mean that the core gamers who have been complaining of being ignored will get their day in the sun in 2008. With hardcore-centric titles like Smash Bros. Brawl, Metal Gear Solid 4 and (maybe) Final Fantasy XIII on the horizon, there's already some evidence that hardcore gamers are being looked at more. But expect that focus to increase as the year goes on.
1.) If the release schedule remains the same, then the 2008 Game of the Year will be... Spore.
Based on all of the games I see coming out, nothing looks as refined, as re-defining and as complete a package as Spore. Will Wright has seemingly scored once again with a game that lets you go through the entire evolutionary process, to not only create a microscopic organism and build it into sentient life, but to build a society around those creatures, to change the game in ways you've never thought possible until now. If Spore makes it in 2008, then it should be Game of the Year, even if it doesn't have the best HD graphics or the most people playing it online. All Spore needs to do is deliver on what it's promising.
In one year I will check up on this. Then we will see if an analyst is you.
Great read.
reasonable predictions... little to no bullshit...
Please sir, can I have another?
Numbers 5 and 2 seem to good to be good to true. Lets hope not.
These seem more like Gaming Hopefuls more than Gaming Predictions.
Fuck F-Zero, I need my goddamn Pilot Wings for Wii ;_;
I think the opposite with Spore. I think it won't be as good as people think it will be. I am still excited for the game but Little Big Planet is a big title also. Good write up.
Uhhhh yeah, the Wii is ahead of the 360 in terms of worldwide hardware sales. And I'm not so sure Nintendo or Sony will come out so soon with new handhelds when they've somewhat recently updated them, and while they're still selling well. Other than that, nothing seems too ridiculous...
Good predictions, but I dont think that the reliability of the 360 is going to get any better, they say that the new falcons (the famous microsoft insider article I wont google for you people), had a 10% faiulure rate... but thats still a lot and they are fairly new, so the faiulure rate cant go anywhere but up with the time.
Now maybe microsoft can get their act together and make things right with the new revision scheduled for august.
I started to read through this but when I got through numbers 7 and 6 I got distracted by Cammy. So I had to close it, muster up the willpower (use my hand to cover up the right side of my screen) and continue to read.
I agree with your top 10 except for developers will still focus more on the casual gamer and the no droughts.
Re: 10: I'm most interested in what they will use as the next storage medium. Sony's UMD format failed to gain traction, and if Nintendo sticks with flash memory, it's increasing game size requirements faster than memory is decreasing in price. Plus how will Nintendo feature full BC while making something "different" from the DS?
Re: 7: I'm not so sure about Wii Fit, both for the price and reason that Americans aren't really used to doing calisthenics in their homes. Also American homes tend to have thick plush carpet, so I can imagine the board being less accurate and harder to use. I think it will sell well for Nintendo, but not in excess of Smash. I also think GTAIV will outsell them both, because it's multiplatform. Still don't know if Spore will even make it out in 2009.
Re: 6: I agree with your order in terms of software dollar sales (Microsoft and Sony already have an inherent 20% price advantage per game over Nintendo), but I believe Wii will overtake 360 in terms of hardware units in North America. I'm assuming your predictions are all for NA, btw, because Wii already has 360 beat worldwide. I think 360 will add another 5-6 million 360s, in line with 2007's numbers. The quality of the 360 will be less of an issue, but it will face stiffer competition from PS3 both in terms of value and graphical quality. Also, there's no Halo 4 to provide a pre-holiday sales boost. A large price drop could help, but it would probably not go unanswered for long, so even if sales increase, market share will continue to decrease. It can only continue to decrease from the 100% market share Microsoft had at the end of October 2006.
Shit, that was long.
10. Why would they? They released a slimmer PSP recently and Nintendo themselves said they won't redesign the DS till sales for it drops, something I don't see happening anytime soon.
9. HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA, good one.
8. Fuck no, EA owns enough companies.
7. I agree this can happen.
6. Don't care either way.
5. Why would they announce that? They're fine with minigame collections and Mario Kart.
4. Depends on the company, Nintendo is guaranteed to have a huge droughts, not sure about the rest.
3. I don't know about that, I think the games coming out this year are way more hyped that the previous year.
2. Don't care either, casual games for anything that's not the Wii is usually quite blatant and I just avoid them.
1. Let's hope it lives up to the insane hype train it has.
#7 Are you assuming that Starcraft 2 won't be out this year?
I don't know about the DS. Dude, the thing is still hard to find. I'm trying to get one myself and I haven't been able to track one down for the last week. Allegedly, my local Best Buy is getting some in stock tomorrow (or so my friend/employee says).
But, yeah. Great blog.
@Gangles: No, I'm assuming that the SC2 consumer base isn't as big as the consumer base for any of those other games. That's not to say SC2 won't sell a shit ton of copies (it will easily break 1 million... easily), but I'm not sure if it'll outsell those. Or if it'll be out this year.
I hope you're right, allways great to have a good 'future' to look forward too :-)
Really spot on analysis, but I'm curious about a couple of your points...
4 kind of assumes that everything sticks to the current release schedule. Games like GTA come out early in the year, Left 4 Dead sticks to late summer, etc. Given the nature of the industry, do you think that the sales rush that always comes around the last 3 months of the year, along with the inevitable delays that plague games, won't lead things to bottleneck around the holidays again?
And regarding 2, do you think that the hardcore market has been ignored? Casual is undoubtedly popular, but just looking at the last couple months ... Bioshock, Orange Box, COD4, Halo 3, Black Site, Kane and Lynch ... I don't think that just because there have been more casual games coming out lately means that the focus on hardcore ever waned.
Spot on list though, really enjoyable read. Just wanted to toss in a bit of discussion.
Bah Spore. Spore and DNF will be released on the same day.
What the fuck is Spore? Yeah I've heard of it but does anyone actually know what it is? I agree with Hitogoroshi.
10.) The DS is a MONEY PRINTING MACHINE- why would they want to harm that until sales slow down?
9) Good!
8) Meh
7)Spore will not sell THAT well.
6)Agreed
5.)F-Zero? Quite possible. Just as possible as Starfox, too.
4.)Agreed
3.) Disagree..... the all-but-sure-to-come recession will hamper sales, but people need their entertainment. Dollar for dollar, games beat out movies and DVDs handily.
2.)Doubtful; the hardcore get some nice titles, but with gems like Clover studios being disbanded, etc.
1.) Spore? SPORE? Sure, it could be the next SIMS, but it's highly doubtful. This guy is very talented and very smart.... but all he has done is SIM games. There's a large amount of people who are not interested in this type of game at all.
I doubt a lot of these predictions... but it looks like a lot of people feel the same way I do, so I won't go into it.
It's possible, but there's no way those will all come true.