The year is already a few weeks old, but there's still time to make predictions. Why? Because I said so, dammit. Things are looking down, and as you'll see in my predictions, I expect that to continue. Gaming is not recession-proof, and we'll continue to learn that this year, though we'll avoid 1983 part deux. The predictions below are made based on current situations and some general predictions based on what I am projecting for different publishers and developers.

These may happen. They may not happen. They might be controversial. I don't know. I am not Nostradamus, nor do I wish to be, since his shit is so vague it can be misinterpreted any number of ways. And I don't want to deal with the crazy cult people, either.

So here we go, it's time for:


Gaming Industry Predictions for 2009

10.) Midway languishes in hell. With no way out and too many debts to pay, Midway will linger in a hellish limbo, unable to find a buyer for the whole company as people just want to poach the Blitz and Mortal Kombat franchises. The only real solution seems to be to let Midway go Chapter 7, liquidate its assets and be done with it unless some mysterious benefactor shows up soon. Like by May 1. If the doomsday scenario happens, it'll be a sad, sad moment for gaming.

9.) DLC ramps up, cheat codes disappear. The era of free is over. Developers realize they can nickel and dime us to death, and that we either have to accept it or get nothing. Unfortunately, a number of people are stupid enough to pay for things that should be free, and it's those people who will be the reason we see a lot more pay-to-play DLC coming in the future. $2 for a costume? $5 for an extra level? $10 for an expansion? Count on seeing those pop up a lot more on all three consoles.

8.) Capcom posts a profit, one of the few companies to do so. Spurred by the success of Street Fighter IV and a slew of other titles, Capcom does something considered unthinkable in today's global economy: they post a slight profit. Alongside Nintendo and a few smaller studios, this news stands out as a glimmer of hope that everything won't go to hell in a handbasket and that games will survive the recession and come back stronger.

7.) Atari returns from the grave. Maybe one of those studios might be long-afflicted Atari. Now with Phil Harrison settled in and scooping up the cast-offs of other developers, Atari will be able to ride games like the anticipated Ghostbusters title back to the top, or at the very least, the middle of the pack. Things are looking a little better for them, especially after Alone in the Dark bombed, but they're not out of the woods yet. I expect Ghostbusters will be a huge seller and will help fill their coffers, which could lead to better things.

6.) EA and Activision-Blizzard continue chopping. The two biggest third-party developers still need to get smaller, and the result is that more heads will roll and more franchises will either be shelved or cut loose altogether. Both companies have seen new franchises sell well and older titles from both are still strong (Madden, Guitar Hero, etc.) but both have also made cuts regardless of the sales, including EA cutting loose part of the team that works on Madden. With the economy only likely to get worse in 2009, more cuts from these guys are likely, if not expected.

5.) Hundreds of smaller developers open their doors, focusing on digital distribution. With so many people in the industry out of business, and with the cost of developing going down thanks to digital distribution, a number of tiny studios will pop up, with 20 people or less employed. They will focus on games for WiiWare/DSiWare, Steam, Xbox Live Arcade and PSN. Some of these studios will thrive and succeed, while others may fail, but get used to seeing a lot of new names in those game previews.

4.) The Sega Sammy experiment ends. Sega Sammy was doomed from the beginning: one company was a faltering first-party, while the other was too heavily invested in pachinko machines. Both parts of the Sega Sammy empire have seen a downturn lately, and though Sega has made some great moves on picking the right games to publish, developing has been a bit of a different story. Expect to see another Japanese company, maybe one not even involved in the industry, to make a move to take Sega off Sammy's hands.

3.) Price cuts for the PS3 and Wii. One will cut because they have to; the other will cut because they can. The PS3 needs a price cut to spur consumer interest in this economy, especially when compared to the Wii and Xbox 360 Arcade's price points. A price drop down to $329 might be the first step towards helping bump sales a little bit. Nintendo's cut will be the last of the three, coming at the holiday season this year, and the smallest. Dropping down to only $229, the Wii will still make Nintendo a profit because costs for manufacturing the Wii wil have dropped by them. The Wii will still sell out through the end of this year.

2.) Rockstar wanders aimlessly after Take Two collapses, unable to find a buyer that can afford them. The writing is on the wall for Take Two, as they'll cease to exist sometime this year. But for Rockstat, it won't lead to a happy sale for them to EA or Activision. As it turns out, most of the big companies that could afford the asking price for Rockstar and the lucrative Grand Theft Auto series will be unable to secure financing for the deal or be so cash-strapped they can't afford to make a purchase of any company.

1.) Sony announces the end of the PSP and a scaling back of studios. From all accounts, Sony is in financial chaos. They've said before they won't be cutting from their gaming division, but I doubt it, especially if their losses continue as such. And even though they've been working on new stuff for the PSP and making it interconnective with the PS3, they are being beaten 2-1 by the DS. And that's without the DSi's numbers being factored in. The PSP seems like a logical place to make a cut, or perhaps, by announcing that they will not be making a PSP2 and that they will eventually wind down software support for it by the end of 2010 or by mid-2011. It won't be a hard cutoff like Sega did with the Dreamcast, but a general winding down as if it were a normal situation. This also affords them more focus on the PS3.

There will also likely be some studio scalebacks. A few will more than likely be merged and some staff cutbacks will be made, but these won't be that drastic. We're not going to see entire studios shut down out of nowhere and they're not going to can 1,000 people from the gaming divisions. But there will be a slimming down of sorts this year and/or maybe early next year.