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"Where do dreams end and reality begin? Videogames, I suppose."- Gainax, FLCL Vol. 1

"The beach, the trees, even the clouds in the sky... everything is build from little tiny pieces of stuff. Just like in a Gameboy game... a nice tight little world... and all its inhabitants... made out of little building blocks... Why can't these little pixels be the building blocks for love..? For loss... for understanding"- James Kochalka, Reinventing Everything part 1

"I wonder if James Kolchalka has played Mother 3 yet?" Jonathan Holmes



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On game sales: What the bleep do we know?
Jonathan Holmes | 7:52 PM on 04.17.2009 43 comments




All day me and the rest of the Destructoid staff (well, really just me, Nick, and Joe) have been talking about GTA:Chinatown Wars' and MadWorld's less than stellar sales. Would the games have sold better on other consoles, how good are these two games to begin with, if any Clover/Platinum games have really sold (answer; they haven't), if Nintendo is to blame for 3rd parties' struggles; all topics of debate that the three of us clearly have different perspectives on.

As fun as it was to engage with my like-minded but disagreeable friends on such matters, in the back of my head I kept thinking "What the hell do I know?" Really, what do I know about how much it cost to make GTA:CW or MadWorld?

I mean, it doesn't take an expert to know that neither game had a Resident Evil 5 or GTA IV-sized budget, but what game does? I wouldn't be surprised if with all the liscensed music, voice work, and obviously pricier graphics, that GTA IV cost at least ten times more than GTA:CW to make. However, I wouldn't bet one thin dime that I know what the hell I'm talking about. As far as I know, GTA IV cost fifty times, or a hundred times more to make than GTA:CW.

So much of that ratio has to do with how responsible, organized, and resourceful the teams behind the games were. Robert Rodriguez can make a blockbuster special effects movie for 10 million dollars, where other directors need ten or twenty times that to achieve the same results. I'm sure that's it's the same way with games. So, if the GTA:CW team was really good, is it possible that the game has already made more than it needs to at this point in it's life cycle to turn a profit?

Of course, Rockstar is bound to say that the game is already a huge success and they're making tons of money off it, but they have to do that. If they start saying the game was a disappointment, then people are of course less likely to buy it. We'll likely never know if the game was a "success" or not.

Then there's MadWorld, a game that I view as an instant classic, but at the same token, I can see why Anthony sees it as just a solid rental. Personally, I wasn't surprised that a game from a studio with a track record for underappreciated, underselling games (I'm looking at you, God Hand and Okami) didn't manage to strike gold with a Black-and-White action game that many reviewers claim to have beaten in four hours.

All amateur analysis aside; the real question remains, how much does MadWorld have to sell in order to make a profit? I'm guessing that given its smaller size, shorter script, but more expensive "talent "(Proops and Dimaggio are probably more expensive than your average voice actors), MadWorld probably cost around the same money to make as No More Heroes, or maybe de Blob (total bullshit guesses).

Neither of those games have cracked the 1 million sales ceiling, but they both have been declared successes by their publishers, and have sequels on the way. I don't think either sold 66,000 in their opening month either, which is what MadWorld reportedly made here in the states.

So does that mean that at this rate, MadWorld too will be considered a success? Is it possible that Sega isn't lying when they say they're happy with the game's sales so far?

Then there's Valkyria Chronicles, a game that maybe didn't cost that much more than your average Wii game. It's been considered to be a commercial flop, but not only did it get it's own anime series and art books, but it's rumored to have a sequel in the works as well. Does that mean the game actually made money?

Can any of use claim to know?

I guess my point is, we only care about game sales because we want to see more of the games that we really like. We want to be able to predict (in these cases, within one or two months of release) if a game is going to get a sequel or not. We try to predict this future by watching a how well out favorite games sell.

We watch their sales with an intensity that would even make these Munchables jealous.



Does it make any sense to do this? Do we really learn anything by keeping track of a game's sales? Tim Schafer sure doesn't think so, and he should know. He's made plenty of games that have flopped, and yet he still keeps coming.

He's not alone in that.

Despite many flops, Clover/Platinum keeps coming. Grasshopper keeps coming. The Harvest Moon games keep coming. The Phoenix Wright games keep coming. Crappy, 3D Sonic games keep coming.

Uwe Boll keeps coming.

To ignorant saps like us, it doesn't look like any of them make money, but clearly they must be.

So I ask you, what's the point in keeping track of a game's sales if we don't have any idea how much the game cost to make?



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37 comments | showing # 1 to 37
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Tony Ponce's Avatar - Comment posted on 04/17/2009 21:13
Tony Ponce
According to Denise Kaigler:

"Remember that many games for Nintendo DS have a nontraditional sales pattern. The trend is toward 'evergreen' games that sell well over an extended period of time instead of in a one-month spike. Call of Duty 4: Modern Warfare for Nintendo DS is a good example. In its first month (November 2007), it sold only 36,000. To date, it has sold through nearly 500,000. Grand Theft Auto: Chinatown Wars is a great game that has received tremendous reviews. We expect that with continued backing, it will follow the same long-tail/evergreen sales route that other top sellers have taken."

That's a nugget to chew on.
RAB's Avatar - Comment posted on 04/17/2009 21:19
RAB
"What the bleep do we know"
I love that movie. Quantum Physics ftw.
Jonathan Holmes's Avatar - Comment posted on 04/17/2009 21:23
Jonathan Holmes
I'm chewing it alright, but dang, what a weird tasting nugget!

The DS is a special case I guess. People suddenly go out and buy a new DS game when they have to go on a trip, when their 360 red rings, or after positive word of mouth suddenly
trickles down to them.

I guess GTA:CW could be a million seller by next year?

I'm so confused...
Tony Ponce's Avatar - Comment posted on 04/17/2009 21:40
Tony Ponce
Something else I want to bring up in regards to GTA:CW sales is this. Whether or not the game goes on to sell gangbusters in the long run, does it really matter? This is the DS we're talking about. Unless you are completely adamant against handheld gaming or you are on of the rare handheld gamers who honestly doesn't like the DS, among the enthusiast community it is agreed that the DS has become a haven for the widest variety of software. Sure, there are only a handful of M-rated games, but was that ever really a problem with the system? Has it not become THE place for Japanese developers? Have we not seen some of the most creative games come out of studios for it?

Even Western studios, who we claim don't give the system much thought, have brought us Guitar Hero, Drawn to Life, Contra 4, Soul Bubbles, Locke's Quest, Henry Hatsworth, and a whole slew of other well-received titles. Some have been sales successes, others haven't, but the variety is there. I don't think this ONE game is really all that important in the grand scheme of things for ANYONE, even the most diehard gamers.
Bob Muir's Avatar - Comment posted on 04/17/2009 23:03
Bob Muir
Megastryke is on the money with this. The DS has an astounding amount of amazing games and just like many DS games (and the PS2's GTA installments), there will likely be a strong stream of purchases over the coming months. But I see your point Holmes, and honestly, I think that the only people who make a really big deal about sales are either fanboys or bloggers who need to fill up news space during the day.
de BLOO's Avatar - Comment posted on 04/17/2009 23:13
de BLOO
HA!

Holmes tears his own asshole! --->
Tony Ponce's Avatar - Comment posted on 04/17/2009 23:13
Tony Ponce
@The Reborn

MadWorld would have sold gangbusters on the 360 and PS3? How so? What's the proof that that would have been the case? Clover's games have always had low sales with varying degrees of relative success and failure. Plus, games flop on the HD machines all the time, high profile games, yet no one calls out those consoles for being harsh environment for third parties.
Tony Ponce's Avatar - Comment posted on 04/17/2009 23:55
Tony Ponce
But can you prove that? Outside of anecdotal evidence, can you prove that the enthusiast gamers who play the Wii play less often than those on the others? I mean, excluding any "casual" audience from any of the three consoles and focusing only on the most invested consumers, is there any evidence outside of "well, out of all my friends..." explanations?

And can you prove that MadWorld would have sold better? What are you basing that on? The only way to tell if a game would sell better on one machine over the other is if it is multiplatform, and how many of those have there been across the 360, PS3, AND the Wii? And of those examples, how often is it the Wii version that pulls ahead with the most sales? We've seen that with Guitar Hero, Rock Band, Shaun White, Tiger Woods, etc.

Unless you can provide me with something other than "gut feeling" I'm going to have to disagree with your assumptions or at the very least chalk the whole situation up as inconclusive.
garison's Avatar - Comment posted on 04/17/2009 23:59
garison
I still want both of these games.
Qraze's Avatar - Comment posted on 04/18/2009 00:52
Qraze
college football you can make money betting on teams but games are more like the nfl- no fucking logic. i'm still wondering how capcom made over 70 megaman games and bionic commando only 3 games, one of which isn't out yet.
Analitic's Avatar - Comment posted on 04/18/2009 01:05
Analitic
The only reason 360/ps3 owners THINK they would have eaten up Madworld, is the fact that it is not on their system.

Trust me people and i am glad Holmes finally agrees, Madworld is no silent hill,Metal Gear solid, Resident Evil 2, metroid prime, LoZ:OoT or even mario galaxy. It is a solid rental, extremely solid, but still its almost like all the games being published on your systems, the ones that you keep poking holes in like dante's inferno, Golden Axe:beast rider, resident evil 5, killzone 2, all very pretty, but lack a (what the bleep do we know) mystery in excellence.

By no means was Madworld, magnificent and the sales are indicative of just that, and not the type of wii audience.

I personally think the wii has better titles and that ghostbusters will be better on Wii, if controls are tight and the camera isn't broken, the latter being another main problem with Madworld.
Josh Tolentino's Avatar - Comment posted on 04/18/2009 01:41
Josh Tolentino
All I know is that our constant whining about how great VC is may have helped the game hit the top five sellers for the PS3 in the US and Japan...on Amazon.

Of course, that was also due to the price drop, the game's induction into the bestseller's list in Japan (speaking to its popularity over there), and perhaps Gamestop's gameday sale, but I like to think that we fanboys had something to do with it.
hpv's Avatar - Comment posted on 04/18/2009 02:55
hpv
Valkyria Chronicles was a pretty decent hit in Japan. It only "flopped" in North American and Europe, which is really too bad because it's fantastic. I'd have picked it up sooner but I have a hard time paying $60 for long games that I'll probably never finish. Funny how the value proposition of game length inverts as you grow up and run out of free time to play games.
Takeshi's Avatar - Comment posted on 04/18/2009 04:44
Takeshi
Didn't Okami sell quite good? If not: Fucking Blasphemy!
Analitic's Avatar - Comment posted on 04/18/2009 07:45
Analitic
and look how many sonic games sequels we had...please don't tell me you all think that they were a commercial success.
Jonathan Holmes's Avatar - Comment posted on 04/18/2009 09:26
Jonathan Holmes
@ Takeshi- Okami is doing a little on the Wii than it did the PS2, but on both systems combined, it still hasn't hit 500,000 units sold.

@ Analitic- Did I even not agree with you on that? :)

@ The Reborn- Force Unleashed, Call of Duty:WoW, the Resident Evil(s), and plenty of other "hardcore" games have sold over a million copies on the Wii.

Okami, God Hand, Shadow of the Colossus, the Viewtiful Joe's, Gradius V, R-type Final, Katamari Damacy, the 3D Castlevania's, Psychonauts all sold crappy on the PS2.

Therefore, the PS2 is a console for casuals who just bought it because it's a DVD player, and the Wii is the ultimate console for hardcore gamers.

I'm kidding of course. My point is, making bold generalizations off the sales of a handful of games is silly.
Tony Ponce's Avatar - Comment posted on 04/18/2009 13:09
Tony Ponce
Ōkami on the Wii has sold over 280K according to that same link. And no, Shadow of the Colossus was not a million seller. Where on Earth did you ever come up with that one? Because it's on the Greatest Hits line? The cutoff to make it on the PS2 Greatest Hits line is 400K. And even if it were, which it is not, it makes no difference because one game does not set a trend.

God Hand was a Clover game. We have every right to hold it up to the same standards as we do for MadWorld. Many people would disagree that it was a garbage game, but it's quality really makes no difference as both high and low quality games can either sell tremendously or tank horribly.
Jonathan Holmes's Avatar - Comment posted on 04/18/2009 13:25
Jonathan Holmes
@ The Reborn- No one has ever asked me to actually start naming Wii games before. People usually ask me to stop naming them.

Consider yourself a pioneer!
Analitic's Avatar - Comment posted on 04/18/2009 15:02
Analitic
Holmes sorry man did not mean to trespass on your inner bleeps, but calling madworld an instant classic and wanting to give it a insta buy in your review, were some of your earlier comments. with time, i think you realized its not that great, which is the point im trying to make and not that you thought it was a silent hill, metal gear etc :)

Shadow of the colossus never sold well??? is that true??? weird i would donate a kidney to the developers to make a sequel and not just some paper money... that is very strange, i did'nt know that...still confused....
Joe Burling's Avatar - Comment posted on 04/18/2009 15:03
Joe Burling
Force Unleashed, Call of Duty:WoW, the Resident Evil(s), and plenty of other "hardcore" games have sold over a million copies on the Wii.

Let's count how many of the games that sold over a million on the Wii are "hardcore" games....

Out of the the list you just provided, only Call of Duty 3 was a hardcore game that sold at least a million on the Wii.

Basically, you can sum up every hardcore game on the Wii with "Star Wars", "Resident Evil" and "Call of Duty".
Chris Carter's Avatar - Comment posted on 04/18/2009 15:25
Chris Carter
I'll give you a simple answer on why MadWorld didn't sell

::It reminds a lot of people of GodHand, which didn't sell, and it's 3 hours long::
Jonathan Holmes's Avatar - Comment posted on 04/18/2009 15:40
Jonathan Holmes
@ Analitic- Did I really call MadWorld an instant classic? I'll have to go back and look at that review. I love the game, but I never thought it was for everybody.

@ Joe Burling- GAH! VGChartz!

Kill it with fire!
Joe Burling's Avatar - Comment posted on 04/18/2009 15:52
Joe Burling
Sorry, Jonathan. Please provide a better list. One that is more specific than "plenty of other hardcore games".
Tony Ponce's Avatar - Comment posted on 04/18/2009 16:10
Tony Ponce
Define "hardcore game". Call of Duty is quite the mainstream franchise. Besides, selling one million copies is not the only measure of success. I mentioned earlier that Shadow of the Colossus didn't break a million, but it still performed extremely well.
Jonathan Holmes's Avatar - Comment posted on 04/18/2009 16:30
Jonathan Holmes
@ Joe- The point of this blog was really not to get into lists and all that, but to rather get into the fact that we don't really know how much any videogame really makes for profit if we don't know what their budgets are.

But I will look for a better list. :)
Tony Ponce's Avatar - Comment posted on 04/18/2009 16:56
Tony Ponce
Oh, in that case, good for it. I knew that the game was a success but I never thought it ever broke a million.

Still doesn't prove anything, but good for it.
Chris Carter's Avatar - Comment posted on 04/18/2009 17:09
Chris Carter
@Mega
All we can really quote besides anecdotal evidence that people aren't playing their Wiis are the Nielsen ratings (commence speculatory flaming). I will say that if you're arguing that the average 360 player (Halo 3/Gears/COD online nut) is playing less or equal to the average Wii player, you're insane.

Plain and simple Clover games do not sell because they are niche, difficult, quirky (niche), and have 0 multiplayer. I'm sure MadWorld received a poor word of mouth for it's length. Factor all that in with the Wii and you have a failure.
Tony Ponce's Avatar - Comment posted on 04/18/2009 17:31
Tony Ponce
According to Neilsen, the average session on the Wii is roughly twenty minutes less than that of the 360 and six minutes less than that of the PS3 even though overall it was used more (at least, I think the updated report didn't correct those average numbers). Now if you consider that this is an average of all players per machine and that it is safe to assume that the Wii has a larger non-traditional population than the other two, you are still left with a sector of the Wii population that consider themselves enthusiasts. Do we know the EXACT number of enthusiast gamers on each of the three platforms? No, we don't. We only see the average number. However, enthusiast gamers play much, much, much more than the more "casual" set. Those enthusiasts on the Wii need to be playing a lot in order to bring up the average that the rest bring down.

The only way to confirm this theory would be if it was possible to obtain a graph of individual game session times of all the people surveyed for the report. Then we can look at the range of values and determine whether each of the three consoles has a comparable raw number of enthusiast gamers. We can't get that, so it's still just speculation. We still don't know if that specific audience on the Wii is necessarily any smaller than that on the other machines.
Chris Carter's Avatar - Comment posted on 04/18/2009 17:57
Chris Carter
True, that's why I noted that the Neilson Ratings were, of course, speculatory.

I would contend that the no-strings-attached online gameplay of the 360 (ie no friend codes) coupled with the sheer amount of sales on almost every shooter on the 360 (see Gears of War 2 for just one example) that there has to be more constant 360 gamers than Wii enthusiasts.

With vastly more popular online addictive shooters than "Call of Duty Wii", more time sync RPG titles, and a more competitive arena with almost every game supporting leaderboards, the 360 has a leg on the Wii in my opinion. Of course we can argue this until we're blue in the face, and this is based on my personal observations of course. If The Conduit is a mass success, I can see your point as more viable.

I would be interested in doing some number-crunching/polling in the future to see how these assumptions hold up.
Takeshi's Avatar - Comment posted on 04/18/2009 18:50
Takeshi
@Jonathan
You just made me replay Okami. That's the second game in one week you made me play again. First Lego Star Wars and now this.
Keep giving me great ideas!
Jonathan Holmes's Avatar - Comment posted on 04/18/2009 18:57
Jonathan Holmes
I thought the recent neilsen ratings said people were playing the Wii the most (second to the almighty PS2, of course)...

Also, tried for a little while to find a better list than the VGChartz one that Joe provided, with no luck. The closest thing I could find is a list of of the past few months of WiiWare sales that state that World of Goo, Onlslaught and Bit.Trip Beat are regularly moving around the top five in sales, along with My Aquarium and Tetris Party.

Does WiiWare matter in this discussion, and does the fact that an average-at-best FPS has "beaten" so many "casual" WiiWare games on such a consistent basis mean anything?

And why are we still talking about sales anyway? I thought I made it perfectly clear that none of us know what the bleep we're talking about.

:) :) :) :) :)
Jonathan Holmes's Avatar - Comment posted on 04/18/2009 19:49
Jonathan Holmes
@ Takeshi- Happy to hear it!

Now I want to replay it too.

And did you see the last boss of Tatsunoko Vs Capcom? If you do, you'll probably want to own that game too.
EternalDeathSlayer's Avatar - Comment posted on 04/18/2009 20:42
EternalDeathSlayer
All I know is that I would have bought MadWorld if it was on the 360/PS3.

And I do own a Wii.
Tony Ponce's Avatar - Comment posted on 04/18/2009 21:11
Tony Ponce
@Jonathan Holmes

"I thought the recent neilsen ratings said people were playing the Wii the most (second to the almighty PS2, of course)..."

Overall, sure, but on an individual basis, the average is lower than that of either the 360 or the PS3.
Jonathan Holmes's Avatar - Comment posted on 04/18/2009 21:32
Jonathan Holmes
@ EDS= Are you saying you wont buy MadWorld because it's on the Wii?

Weird!
Analitic's Avatar - Comment posted on 04/19/2009 01:00
Analitic
Actually holmes you mention it in this article...

'Then there's MadWorld, a game that I view as an instant classic, but at the same token, I can see why Anthony sees it as just a solid rental.'

But thats besides the point, and im probably taking things out of context.

A more important number we need to find out is, how many of the 40 million wiis world wide are owned by the so-called 'hardcore'gamers compared to the other systems 'hardcore' players, im sure there's a lot of 'casuals' too on the 360.

i mention this because i know a lot of people that only own halo 3 and medal of honor, and play nothing else...as for piracy it exists on both systems so numbers should skew in both stats. Once we get an official number for that we can easily point out why mature games do not sell well (if that is true) on the wii...

Deadly creatures is way better than madworld and deserves to sell better IMO
Kyle MacGregor's Avatar - Comment posted on 04/23/2009 02:06
Kyle MacGregor
To be honest all of this bickering is kind of annoying, but I'll add my piece into the mix.

I don't really understand why people care so much that games sell that well. I don't require 1,000,000 other people to own a game in order for me to enjoy it. Sure it might help it get a sequel, but one that sells a few hundred thousand would get one as well.
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