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"Where do dreams end and reality begin? Videogames, I suppose."- Gainax, FLCL Vol. 1

"The beach, the trees, even the clouds in the sky... everything is build from little tiny pieces of stuff. Just like in a Gameboy game... a nice tight little world... and all its inhabitants... made out of little building blocks... Why can't these little pixels be the building blocks for love..? For loss... for understanding"- James Kochalka, Reinventing Everything part 1

"I wonder if James Kolchalka has played Mother 3 yet?" Jonathan Holmes



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An Analyst is YOU: 2008 score card and 2009's guess list
Jonathan Holmes | 11:20 AM on 01.02.2009 27 comments




Last year, right after I was hired as an associate editor here at Destructoid, I made some guesses about how the world of videogames was going to change in 2008. As I'm still procrastinating about finishing the Tatsunoko Vs Capcom review (the better the game is, the harder it is to do it justice with words), I thought I'd quickly take a look at my predictions, and see which ones I got right and which ones I got wrong.

Sony

* The PS3 continues to remain 2nd to the Wii in Japan, 3rd to the Wii and the 360 in the USA and Europe.

Yep, got that one pretty much right.

* PS2/PS3 motion controller and coinciding casual games are released, sell very well.

Holy crap, totally wrong there. There were rumors that the break-apart PS3 wii remote rip off was in development, but nothing was ever shown or announced.

* New game from the Ico/Shadow of the Colossus team is released, doesn't sell half as much as it should.

Another fail.

* Home fails to attracted much attention, or is even scrapped entirely for more fleshed out retail version of the same idea.

Well, I was sort of right there.

* God of War 3 announced for 2009.

Got it.

* PSP 2 announced, still uses UMD format, still single screen system, but is now touch screen enabled. System is backwards compatible, roughly as powerful as XBOX1.

Failed.

Microsoft

*360 continues to trail in 3rd place in Japan, nips at heels of the Wii's 1st place spot in the USA through out the year.

Got that one half wrong. The 360 didn't do bad in the US, and even had a swell of success in Japan, but it didn't ever really "nip at the heels" of the Wii in any country (not to self, stop saying "nip at the heels". It sounds really stupid).

* X-Box Live Arcade stand alone system released for under $100, sells extremely well with the plug and play crowd, outsells 360 in Japan.

Totally wrong.

* XBLA games made available for Zune, boosting Zune sales to triple their previous numbers.

TOTALLY wrong.

* Gears of War 2 is released, sells at least twice what GoW1 sold.

Half right.

* Petal Rear Squalid Door announced for release on the 360 in 2009.

Very, very wrong.

Nintendo

*Wii Fit is released in the US only when Wii supply/demand issues are reconciled, sells extremely well.

Wrong and right.

* New Pokemon, Punch-Out, Kid Icarus, and Star Fox games announced for Wii.

Right (Pokemon Ranch, remember), right, half wrong, and wrong. I say "half wrong" based on rumors I've heard that Factor 5 was about %40 finished with Kid Icarus Wii, but due to financial trouble they had to shelve to project. The rumor is that Nintendo is still trying to figure out what to do about that.

* Nintendo boasts of how friend codes save their consumers from online rapists.

Never happened publically.

* Street Fighter 4 comes to Wii with option for motion controls, DieHard fans of the series are disgusted.

Totally wrong. I also thought SF4 would be out by now, and would have enver guessed that Tastunoko Vs Capcom would have been announced, brought to arcades, then released in Japan on the Wii all within twelve months.

* The DS2 is a DS/Wii hybrid and is announced for early 2009. Uses motion controls, when docked with disk drive/charging bay can play tradition Wii games on any tv. Console is also portable, can play DS1, DS2, and Wii Ware games on the go via SD card. With disk drive/charging bay, system costs approx $250, with out disk drive/charging bay costs approx $150.

Holy crap was I wrong! Some of this is right, like the SD card bit as it relates to the DSi, but it's generally crap. I should have just said something vague like "New DS will be announced". If I had, this would have been in the win column.

Total:

Right - 2

Half right - 8

Very wrong - 7

So, I'm no Nostradomous, but I could have done a lot worse.

Ok time for this year's predictions!

Microsoft

* New line of casual games announced, called something like "Family Fun" or "My Time" or something awful like that.

* Animal Crossing style game using 360 Avatars is announced.

* Halo 3: Recon sells much less than expected, Halo fans state "It's just too soon".

* 360's successor hinted at, uses motion controls in a way very different from the Wii.

* Zune gets a Halo game.

* Portal 2 is released, is totally amazing.


Sony

* PSP2 announced (for real this time).

* PS3 price drops to below $200 by years end, has no hard drive, but does have PS2 backwards compatibility, sales sky rocket.

* Loco Roco PS3 is released, is fantastic, sells much less than it should.

* God of War 3 is slightly above-average, sells much better than it should.

*LittleBigPlanet 2 announced, ditches the strictly 2D format, allows for all sorts of gaming possibilities including Kart racing, FPS warfare, Platforming, etc.

* Sony's Smash Bros rip-off is released, features Sackboy, Parappa, Robbit (from Jumping Flash), Sackboy, Taro, Ape Escape characters, and Team Ico Characters. Game looks and plays amazing, but no one buys it.

Nintendo

* Another Pokemon Wii game announced, huge online RPG in the style of Mosnter Hunter

* Kid Icarus Wii returns from the dead, plays like a combination of Resident Evil 4 and Mario Galaxy.

* Mega Man (3D this time), Resident Evil (either a RE2 port or a RE:UC sequel) , and Final Fantasy (Crystal Bearers, not Echoes of Time) all released exclusively for the Wii

* People still bitch that the Wii has no games.

* Mario skateboarding/snowboarding game released for Wii, uses balance board, plays like a combination of Mario Kart and SSX, sells like crazy.

* Rhythm Tengoku Wii is released, becomes my favorite game of all time.

So, those are my predictions for this year. I think I was a little braver this time around. What do you guys think? How wrong am I going to be this time?



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25 comments | showing # 1 to 25
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galagabug 's Avatar - Comment posted on 01/02/2009 12:24
galagabug
not bad, nothing too far fetched tho.

fun read.
Jamie McGinn's Avatar - Comment posted on 01/02/2009 12:32
Jamie McGinn
I hope you're right about Portal 2. Man I'd love to play that
EternalDeathSlayer's Avatar - Comment posted on 01/02/2009 12:42
EternalDeathSlayer
I'm not going to attack you, but why do feel God of War 3 will only be slightly above average?

If you're a fan of the series, then more of the same but bigger and better should be awesome. I will be pissed if I see people rag on the game for it's lack of originality.
garison's Avatar - Comment posted on 01/02/2009 12:46
garison
I kinda don't want them to make a Protal 2, I think that game is great by itself, I want Valve to try something completely different again. I have no doubt those creative geniuses could pull that off.

Also, Rhythm Tengoku on the Wii? Yes please! I would definately import that one, even though I have yet to play the GBA or DS versions. That is about to change though...
Justice's Avatar - Comment posted on 01/02/2009 12:50
Justice
"Rhythm Tengoku Wii is released, becomes my favorite game of all time"

If that was released it really would be the greatest game EVAR.
bloodylip's Avatar - Comment posted on 01/02/2009 12:53
bloodylip
@EDS:

From Jon Holmes' sidebar:

Metal Gear Solid, Gears of War, God of War, and Call of Duty: World at War can all kiss my half-black ass.

I'm going to have to agree. GoW was an okay game. Kinda fun, but not spectacular like tons of people make it out to be. I can see why people enjoy it, but I can't see why people think its a great game.
njsykora's Avatar - Comment posted on 01/02/2009 13:06
njsykora
"People still bitch that the Wii has no games."

A pretty safe bet there I think.

And a prediction of mine, DSi gets Virtual Console for Gameboy, GB Colour and Advance games.
RICHARD BLOCKER's Avatar - Comment posted on 01/02/2009 13:21
RICHARD BLOCKER
"PS3 price drops to below $200 by years end, has no hard drive, but does have PS2 backwards compatibility, sales sky rocket."

"Another Pokemon Wii game announced, huge online RPG in the style of Mosnter Hunter"


If these happen I just might purchase a wii and ps3 this year.
covah's Avatar - Comment posted on 01/02/2009 13:33
covah
A PS3 with NO harddrive? being that some PS3 games need X amount of GBs, I'm going to say thats never going to happen.
EternalDeathSlayer's Avatar - Comment posted on 01/02/2009 13:42
EternalDeathSlayer
Everyone's entitled to their opinion, I guess.....
RICHARD BLOCKER's Avatar - Comment posted on 01/02/2009 13:45
RICHARD BLOCKER
@ covah

My buddy bought a PC hard drive and plugged it into his PS3. Instant, cheap upgrade.
covah's Avatar - Comment posted on 01/02/2009 13:51
covah
But the people who a cheap PS3 (with apparently no HDD) would be aimed to wouldn't be the type of people who would realize that they could do something like that.
Danl Haas's Avatar - Comment posted on 01/02/2009 14:22
Danl Haas
No Zelda predictions on the Nintendo side? I think it's a shoe-in for at least being announced this year, and considering Nintendo's recent habit of releasing things very close to announcing them, I don't think it would be totally absurd to say it'll be out holiday 09.
Jonathan Holmes's Avatar - Comment posted on 01/02/2009 16:52
Jonathan Holmes
@ Danlhaas- Yeah, no offense, but I thought predicting a new Zelda was little too obvious. There was that list floating around saying that there was a new Zelda every year since 1999 for the past ten years. Some sort of Zelda for 2009 is a pretty much a given

@ Eternaldeathslayer- I have the utmost respect for the God of War games, but I don't like playing them at all. It's just a matter of taste, not a matter of quality.

@ Covah- Yeah, maybe your right. I probably should have guessed "A PS3 with a SanDisk port like the Wii's got".

Ah well, only time tell.
mistic's Avatar - Comment posted on 01/02/2009 17:37
mistic
Man I hope all your predictions come true :-)

one of mine: Killzone for PS3 will have to slow controls to be actually playable online decently, I'll totally dig GoW3 and buy it, another lowlife game will amaze the hardcore crowd ( like Valkyria Chronicles did )
EternalDeathSlayer's Avatar - Comment posted on 01/02/2009 18:02
EternalDeathSlayer
That's refreshing to hear. Usually people just hate on games they don't like, but you seem to be more like me: You respect games that are of an obvious high quality but are not your cup of tea.

You just gained so much respect from me, if it matters.
BulletMagnet's Avatar - Comment posted on 01/02/2009 21:33
BulletMagnet
Some interesting predictions, though I must toss another log of serious doubt on the "cheap BC PS3" fire.
grassr00ts's Avatar - Comment posted on 01/03/2009 04:47
grassr00ts
Can't wait to see how you did with this years predictions.

I think it would be tough for sony to release a ps3 w/o harddrive and w/ BC, bu I guess we will see.
Cowzilla3's Avatar - Comment posted on 01/03/2009 11:32
Cowzilla3
I predict you and I will fall in love and run away together.
Excel-2011's Avatar - Comment posted on 01/03/2009 15:17
Excel-2011
As all above commenters as witnesses, if you're even half right about Sony's Smash Bros. ripoff coming out this year, I will personally PayPal you $10 within seven days of its first release.
Marc of Arabia's Avatar - Comment posted on 01/04/2009 21:11
Marc of Arabia
I'm in the same boat for God of War. I've played both, thought they were "meh" but definitely recognize the quality in the titles.

But as for the PSP2. NO WAY JOSE. Sony is already losing lots o' money, the PS3 is under performing, and the PSP wasn't terribly successful to begin with.
eternalplayer2345's Avatar - Comment posted on 01/04/2009 21:43
eternalplayer2345
Rhythm Tengoku Wii

that's no prediction thats the best thing I ever heard.
Tubatic's Avatar - Comment posted on 01/04/2009 22:27
Tubatic
I think you'll be very wrong about Mega Man, $200 PS3 and the response to Halo 3: CSI Miami.

I think I should do one of these. Its fun to look back to what you thought a year ago!
TheBigFeel's Avatar - Comment posted on 01/05/2009 03:04
TheBigFeel
I agree Tubatic on the no 3d megaman. 9 just did too well. I could see a 2.5d game though (not saying I want it)
perri's Avatar - Comment posted on 01/06/2009 22:26
perri
You forgot 'Sony implodes and announces that there will be no PS4'

Also, if Icarus plays like a mix of RE4 and Mario Galaxy, as hard as that is to comprehend, It may be the greatest game of all time.
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