There's good reason to believe that our next generation will see a single unified platform. Most recently
Denis Dyack made mention of this vision, as well as
Hideo Kojima so when should we start wondering?
Well - Microsoft has had this vision since starting the Xbox. You can read older articles where the head of Microsofts game division speaks on seeing games as a single platform with a single media much like the standards we go bu y movies (DVD), or music (CD). Microsoft plans to develop the games Operating System. Don't believe me? Look deep into Microsofts support of XNA. Very well organized and tailored to developers. Making life easier for them equals faster games being released on their platform, equals more money in their pockets. Sony is disorganized relying on the developers themselves to provide documentation and help on programming for their platform. This is where the two will meet.
Sony is not an enemy of Microsoft per se. Sony computers and laptops have long since ran Microsoft OS's, and there has to be some sort of partnership/agreement among them for that area of sales. Why should games be any different? In the future, I see Microsoft reaching towards Sony on developing either a single piece of hardware - or two competeing pieces, both running a Microsoft games OS.
I think Sony & Microsoft will realize they need to work together since Hardware sales are usually shitty for both companies immediately after they are launched. HW sales dig into companies profits almost always up until the following year when components become cheaper to obtain and produce. I wouldn't be surprised if you see Sony's cell processor come together with Microsofts Xbox Live, and each company respectively customize their dashboards, hardware style look and feel, among other things, while producing a single disc for each game that is compatible for both companies.
As developing a game is taking longer and longer to do - the hassles incurred by supporting multiple platforms is causing more harm then good to studios. I could easily come up with a huge list of reasons for this. It seems that this generation we are closer than ever to realizing that we do not need to have format wars. Be it audio, video, or game. I personally wouldn't mind seeing companies like Sharp - Toshiba - Sony - Microsoft - Apple - any hardware manufacturer, develop a machine to spec of the operating system, and I can have my option of what player to put in my living room with whichever extra bells and whistles it may have - knowing full well, I can play all of the games "this generation" that I wanted.
Am I crazy?...
(I did not include Nintendo because Nintendo is stubborn and would never agree to such a thing)
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Well seeing as how the compition within games is what drvies devlepors of gameing hardware (consoles) and software (the games them selves) to try bigger and better things.
I hope that never happens.
To answer your question... yes. The console wars will be ever-lasting. The thing about the other media wars, like, say the VHS v. Betamax, is that they only last about a year or 2. The thing about console wars is that we've been having them since the 80's. There will never be a unified console, especially bnecause there's so much money to be made off of games. Even though Nintendo is the only company that profits off the sale of the console itself, good first-party games rake in so much cash that Sony or Microsoft would never let it go. They'll hold onto it until they go the way of Atari or Sega.
You make some valid points in your article, but as of now, i really cant imagine a MicroSony PlayBox 4. Not because i cant see the two working together, that is possible, but having one console would be like having one brand of a soap bar... who cares if all soap contains the same chemicals, some people want to smell different... same with consoles... Some people like to have a console thats fun and cheap without a slew of features (wii) and some people have to have the multimedia powerhouse (ps3, 360).
If you combine these two, then its kinda like forcing the features instead of letting someone choose. Maybe i read it wrong, but thats what i think.
not crazy. probably pretty accurate. as we go forward, expect to see all your entertainment/home computing needs smushed into a single device. not a console, not a pc, just a reciever of sorts.
don't expect that device to be too powerful either, it'll be more similar to a console than a pc. all your applications (games included) will be hosted remotely, physical media will be a thing of the past. several compaines like sun/google are working on solutions for this now. having your entire business stored remotely makes the possibilities endless, i'd imagine somehwere down the line, focus will be put on that for entertainment too (companies like JOOST and other players in the IPTV market are banking on that now).
so no, you're defiantely not crazy.
^I was answering the question of if you're crazy for thinking there will be a unified console
Yes there is lots of money to be made in gaming, but you fail to realize that sales also suffer because of this as well. Not everyone can afford to have the respective platform that a game they may want will be developed for. MGS4 for example. If 5 million ppl own a PS3 and 4 mil want MGS 4 but 13 Million 360 users do.. Konami is going to lose money. Plus they have to develop a port or new version for 360 should they try to satisfy those consumers, which will now incur development costs into a million or so dollars, which of course means, this is not the best way to do business.
I think you may need to open yourself up a little bit more to the idea when you think about it.
ps.. Beta vs VHS lasted well over 10 years. And format wars for virtually every format has gone on since (the beginning of formats).
Read about Beta vs VHS, or for that matter AC3 vs MP3 basically if you wanted to, you could trace back almost every format war in some way to Sony..
Anyways - But if you look at hardware for the console wars, the only ones that ever succeeded were against similar hardware. 8 bit - 16 bit - 32 bit - 128 bit - and now.. Hardware is similar. The platform is not. Its the Operating System which is the future... Think about it.. Sony and Microsoft, Nintendo all create different boxes, they just need one requirement. Run GameOS. This could be scaleable as well. Upgradeable - sure! It's PC -> But now Console. So your console is run by an OS. Its scary for some to think about - but I personally embrace the idea as well.
It wouldn't be so bad - but I do enjoy it when things are done differently as well...
Just trying to be thought provoking
Sorry, I just don't think there'll be one console to rule them all. The thing about the competition with games, as opposed to, say, HD DVD v. BluRay, is that with games, there's so much variety. Just take a look at the Wii. The fact that it has such innovative control makes it interesting. It adds variety to the console, something you can't get anywhere else, and Nintendo has a habit of doing this every 10 years. That's why I don't think there will ever be a unified console, because Nintendo finds great ways to mix things up, making the competition more exciting.
I want my console wars!
Like Global ID's and a one world currency, IT will happen.
Don't get me wrong, I don't think you're a bad guy for saying this. I have nothing against you. You're doing a good job of making us think with a controversial post. I just really don't think there could be a unified console.
I can only pray for the day when there is only one "hardcore" gaming machine. The cost of the consoles are making it less and less likely that you will be able to afford all the top consoles of the generation. Look what's going on right now, companies are tossing money all over the place JUST to secure exclusive rights, and in most cases TIMED exclusive rights. I'm sick of missing out on a game or movie just because it's exclusive to one company/player/medium/console etc. . .
Hahah. I made note not to include Nintendo.
But anyways - no there isnt a whole lot of variety my friend! How many releases are across the board (released on all 3)? What is the reason for most exclusives (besides backroom money deals)? How many games are "timed-exclusive" this generation, meaning they are only on PS3 or Xbox for a limited time - who's really winning?
The wii is an innovative way to play - ask your friends how many use PS3 motion controls - I don't use mine..
Developers aren't even taking advantage of the opportunities presented with the new hardware, and what makes it different other than drivers which could be written to perform on ANY console. See Xbox360 Xilt controller tilt mod, as well as XNA running Wiimote. Hell, how much was the original Eye Toy talked about - then 360 Live Vision - and now Eye Toy 2.. These are gimmicky and rarely used by the majority.
I know you like your wars - but I don't know if we'll be seeing them much longer. Especially after many seasoned vets are starting the warcry for a single platform.
Well, you just said that there's a reason you didn't mention Nintendo, so maybe we'll see 2 consoles, with Microsoft and Sony teaming up, and Nintendo pulling off the biggest upset since David v. Goliath with a control system that actually lets you be in the game..
hahah I can see what team you're rooting for! lol.
Yeah, I feel like those two are more likely to join forces. I think Nintendo will always try to do things their way. But you'll more than likely see in the next 2-3 years Nintendo Wii will fall off more than it picks up. People will be into HD, and Wii will feel too wiik too soon. I own all three. I play my 360 more often just because the more solid experience with being a Live Gold Member (haha), and I enjoy force feedback.. My PS3 feels cheap when I'm playing a game.
If Nintendo tries to go above and beyond next Console, I bet they'll have a chance, but otherwise I see them doing smaller things in the future than I do bigger.
Right, just like Esperanto.
I think this is a pretty dangerous way to think, actually. You do know what happens to products and services when they have no competition, right? You get crap like the New York MTA and many other municipal entities who have no impetus to improve their offerings. Nobody improves a product out of the goodness of his heart, guys. I hate to break this to you, but as long as industry needs to make money (i.e. forever), competition will be absolutely necessary.
Would you be in favor of a one-party political system? Suppose Sony, Microsoft, and Nintendo team up to create this mythical happy-box you're talking about. It'll have the hardware muscle of the PS3, the vast network of Xbox Live, and the controls of the Wii. But what if I don't want to use waggle? What if I prefer my gamepad? This amalgamated beast will have to use both control schemes. Every game will have to be made that way. They'll be absurdly expensive. All three companies would have to hemorrhage enormous amounts of cash just to satisfy everyone with a single machine.
There will be 10 different SKUs, 3 different online payment plans, and so many damn accessories (nunchuks, controllers, tilt sensors, cameras, microphones, etc.) that no one, especially not average consumers, will want to deal with the hassle of figuring it all out. It'll probably have a few amazing titles that will make the whole nightmare worthwhile for a select few, but it won't be able to build up the sort of momentum it would need to overshadow every other product. And you know what you'll have?
A computer.
And someone else will come up with the bright idea to package a small subset of that functionality into a little box that plugs into your TV. All the games will work with the same unit, there will only have to be one configuration, and people who feel intimidated by your amorphous uberconsole will buy it in droves simply because of its one-button simplicity.
Just like the Atari 2600. And the NES. And the iPod.
Competition will begin anew, and new products will spring up to occupy sectors of the market previously ignored by the unwieldy catch-all approach of your supposed monopoly. You can't keep capitalism down, because everyone wins.
As a developer, I sincerely hope this doesn't come true.
I can theoretically see it happen one day, but not really within the next 10 years or anything. Just like how the HD format war could theoretically drive companies away from discs and towards digital distribution.
Don't forget that HD is still in a very early state. Most people still really don't care for HD graphics over gameplay, as is visible from the Wii's success. I see Nintendo integrating the Wii into a cheap livingroom media hub faster than MS/Sony actually. For the average consumer at least.
it will never happen
Well, the very fact that Nintendo won't agree to any such thing will ALWAYS ensure more than one platform at any given time. The Wii/DS/GBA successes will make sure of that.
Wowza, that is like woah.
Also I wuv you!