Quantcast
Community Discussion: Blog by Corncobtacular | Corncobtacular's ProfileDestructoid
Corncobtacular's Profile - Destructoid




Game database:   #ABCDEFGHIJKLMNOPQRSTUVWXYZ         ALL     Xbox One     PS4     360     PS3     WiiU     Wii     PC     3DS     DS     PS Vita     PSP     iOS     Android




click to hide banner header
About


Favorite System: Nintendo 64
Favorite Game: Monkey Island (maybe GoldenEye)
Favorite Franchise: Civilization

Games I'm looking forward to playing in no real order:

Fable 2
L.A. Noir
Starcraft 2
Diablo 3
Spore

Some games I've been told that i need to go back and play (seriously, i've never played any of these):

Beyond Good & Evil
Ico
Shadow of the Colossus
God of War I & II
Bard's Tale
Okami
Longest Journey
Super Metroid
Chrono Trigger
Final Fantasy VII
Killer7
Viewtiful Joe
Skies of Arcadia


Badges
Following (53)  


We get it, enough already. Please stop bashing all things Halo everywhere you can. We understand that you don't like the game. Whatever the reason - it doesn't bring anything new, the story is unoriginal, the community is lame - we don't care. You have been using every chance possible to let everyone know how much you disapprove of Halo.

Here's just a quick grab of posts I've noticed since i arrived at work:

Stop writing about Halo! You fail at life! Which i guess in turn led me to write another Halo post

You know this is sweet...especially the FIRST time I used this mode in a game called FarCry: Instincts Predator Awesome, some people never played this so they may actually be looking forward to the new feature

Wait, does he play BioShock? Maybe he is upset that his version of Halo sucks balls, even though Halo does suck...haha A story about an annoying PC gamer is just another chance to spread the hate

Ediot'rs [sic] choice? psssssh Well when you put it that way i can totally see your point

No one plays the HALOz!

*******

There were some other ones too, but it became obvious that he's just trying to get under people's skin....which is entertaining. So "Mission Accomplished", because you apparently got me.

The longer i went back looking at posts the more obvious it became that I should probably just get back to work and stop trying to look for things someone i don't know in real life said on a website about a GAME that i don't really care about one way or the other. So....what exactly was i trying to say here?









I've been thinking about this for awhile. A lot of people see Halo 3 as the game that will help the Xbox 360 regain the lead in the console "race" or at least increase sales. But what will Microsoft do if the game only mildly helps push additional consoles? What if the crowd that lives for all things Halo is mostly the same crowd that already owns a 360?

Let me get to why I feel this way in the first place. There has been some research done on console attach rates early in a consoles life, and there is evidence that a high attach rate early on in a console's life cycle may not be a good thing. This may seem counterintuitive since more games per system means more money for developers that will in turn lead to more games and so on and so forth. The problem is that this can also be a sign the console is only being adopted by the hardcore crowd. I personally feel that this holiday season is going to push the 360 past the hardcore only crowd, but that high attach rate still sticks in my mind....well that and the fact that the hardware seems to always break.

Anyway, back to my original question. If the 360 is indeed only selling to the hardcore crowd, and Halo 3 (along with the holiday lineup) doesn't help push any additional units, what will Microsoft do? Do they simply finish out the current gen and then sell off the business, or are there still enough potential profits in an entertainment center to keep them going?

I for one know I won't continue buying 360 games if there is even a hint that MS will drop support for the system, but I still am not sure if they've gotten accepted completely by the mainstream culture. At least they've surpassed the Dreamcast in sales.

Added picture so it would fit with dvddesign's guidelines








I'm not really sure if this is a typo or not, but Kotaku is reporting that there is some nudity in Mass Effect after it was rated 12 over in the UK. The best part though comes from this quote:

"If playing as a male character the scene can take place between him and a human woman or a humanoid female alien. If playing as a female character the scene can take place between her and a male human or a female humanoid alien."

There is definitely going to be some hot human female on alien female action showing up on Youtube.


Source: Kotaku








I used to have a job analyzing stocks for a mutual fund. A couple of us were asked to do a total analysis of the "videogame sector" since everyone else in the office was older and felt they didn't really understand how the market worked. I did the underwriting Nintendo, THQ and Take Two. I pitched Nintendo (NTDOY or NTDOY.PK if you use Yahoo! Finance) as the stock the company should buy. Below is my original front page summary. Some of my points are glossed over because i only had about 3/4 of a page for my write up, so feel free to ask me any questions you have about my theory.

********

Thesis
I. Consoles - Nintendo sold the least in terms of consoles during this most recent cycle. Having once dominated the industry, setbacks during the last cycle have set a reasonably low bar for Nintendo to overcome. With MS and SNE increasingly focusing on graphics and processing power prices are going through the roof, for both consumers as well as developers. This will be pushing the PS3 and Xbox 360 away from the casual gamer, which is the mass market, and more towards the hardcore gamer, who are the most vocal but represent only a minority of gamers. The Revolution will have a chance to flourish amongst casual gamers who are put off by the expenses associated with the PS3 and Xbox 360, as well as hardcore ones who are intrigued by Nintendo's unique approach to gaming to this next gen cycle.
II. Handheld - Nintendo and SNE are the only big players in handheld systems, with SNE's PSP closing in on Nintendo DS's early lead. Here the DS has been helped by backwards compatibility, as GBA (gameboy advance) games have been compatible with the DS. Game quality has been good, but the DS has suffered from poor visual appeal and a lackluster advertising campaign. On the other hand the PSP has done well due to a high quality of games, looks, and marketing, not to mention being a more powerful system. Nintendo, learning from the shortcomings of the DS is releasing the DS Lite; besides it's iPod like looks and upcoming marketing campaign Nintendo improved several technical features that their customers had wanted. This has been a prime example on how Nintendo will compete on content rather than processing power.
III. Software - Escalating prices of systems and development cost for games has forced developers to pump out sequels of hits rather than face the possibility of a flop; and not just third party developers but SNE's and MS's in-house ones as well since the systems are sold at a loss. There are new titles coming out, but sequels to hits were the cash cow during the last cycle and are already set to be so again well into the next one. Sequels are important, but new titles/ideas bring more diversity to a system as well as bring the opportunity for another hit. Lower development costs for the Revolution will invite developers to take more chances on game titles which will bring more diversity to Nintendo's offering (AVTI, ERTS, & Ubisoft have all confirmed releases for Rev).
IV. Backward Compatibility - Nintendo will be re-releasing all of its past games on an iTunes style set up that allow Revolution owners to download old games directly (Game Cube games will require the discs). Gamers, with a $100 hard drive and the ability to solder it to their Xbox have already been able to do this and it has become quite popular among more devoted gamers. This new offering will bring nostalgic games into the main stream and give consumers a legal means of obtaining their old favorites without searching eBay for decades old systems.
V. Profitability - Unlike its competitors Nintendo does not sell it's consoles at a loss. Nintendo has been able to turn a profit every year since they became public in 1994. Even when Nintendo was losing ground to MS they remained profitable and tried to innovate rather than begin a market share war.
Consensus View
Consensus is spread pretty evenly across the board with slightly more sell and buy ratings than neutral ratings (3,2,2), leaving a balanced risk in terms of sell side rating changes. Most expect Nintendo to do only slightly better than the last cycle, but this has more to do with MS and SNE starting off slow rather than Nintendo getting the transition right.
Variant
By focusing on the quality, diversity, and price Nintendo is going to attract the underserved casual gamers who will be turned off by paying hundreds of dollars extra for what they see as only a visual upgrade. These gamers represent the masses, but are not generally the ones who are the most vocal about their games.
Trigger Point
This month shares have started to trend upwards as investors look towards the next console transition. It will take evidence that Nintendo is regaining market share lost during the last console cycle to significantly move the stock further.
Valuation
Nintendo trades at a discount to pure developers due to the fact that it bears the burden if the Revolution is a flop. As more third party developers make games for Nintendo more of their revenue stream will be dependent upon the Revolution's installed base. This could lead to Nintendo trading more inline with developers, although probably still at a discount.
Pillar assessment
I. Discount to Private Market Value: The only recent takeout activity in the public gaming industry has been valued at 19x EBITDA, but that was for a company with $80M in revenues and expecting to grow at 50%. Other activity has been the purchasing of small privately owned developers, and financial data has been unavailable. A recent 20% move in the stock has arguably weakened this pillar.

II. Important Strategic Position: Nintendo is the only company that focuses purely on games and gaming systems. This will allow them to capitalize tremendously on an improved installed base of their console which will lead to further third party support.

III. Growth Potential: At the beginning of each cycle there tends to be explosive growth for 2-3 years, followed by a dramatic slowdown once Nintendo has an installed base. The final year have seen negative growth in each of the last three cycles.

IV. Favorable Industry Cycle: Every five years the industry is forced to reinvent itself with new consoles. With different technology in each console hitting the market, this cycle could prove vastly different than the ones before it.

V. Quality Management: Miyamoto is considered the best in the business by his competitors for "his incredible vision of what gaming should be" (Gates), as well as his ability to keep Nintendo highly profitable during the last turbulent cycle.

VI. Other: Interesting play on Japan's economic recovery. Should hit peak earnings in this cycle in three years


*********

The 20% move i mentioned was the fact that the stock price jumped from $14 to $17 in about one week, which unfortunately happened to be the week the i pitched the stock to my boss. Unfortunately i found out from the questions after the presentation that my boss had been hoping to hear that we should buy Sony because he knew of the playstation brand and had been hearing about Blu-Ray. I told him i thought it was too early for a format play and so the meeting ended with him telling me "you missed it" (in regards to the 20% Nintendo move). This annoyed me and what eventually made me open up my job search, i was currently looking, to other industries. I now take comfort in the fact that the stock price is now $55.75, a modest 225% growth rate. I was also forbidden from owning any stock, besides our company's, because they didn't want to have any possible insider information litigation. So, unfortunately no one made any money off of the work i did.

Feel free to ask me anything about my write up if you make it this far.

One more thing, i mad this pitch in Feb of 2006.








GamePolitics has been posting a four part series about the constant crap it has to deal with from Jack Thompson. It looks like a good amount of reading but it actually goes by pretty quickly. If anything it confirms my belief that Jack is out of his mind and needs a big purple mushroom tattoo to make himself feel loved, i know it always works for me.

Part One

Part Two

Part Three

Part Four







Corncobtacular
4:55 PM on 05.31.2007

I'm just checking to see if editing my story bumps it back up to the top, cause that would be lame and probably start getting abused.

Since the new blogs have everyone's attention i need some help on finding used video games. I'm sick of shopping at EB Gestapo and need to find some small independent retailers that don't require me to lube myself before each visit.

Not only that, but eBay prices haven't been too friendly lately either.

Does anyone on here know any independent retailers in St. Louis? I'm not from here and only moved here a year ago for my job.

Thanks

Also, cocks