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Analyst: 'Xbox 360 consumers are not begging for Blu-ray' photo

When Microsoft CEO Steve Ballmer talks, people listen. Earlier today, word went around that the executive had confirmed an upcoming Blu-ray player add-on for the Xbox 360 platform. What he actually said was hardly a confirmation at all. 

"You'll be able to get Blu-ray drives as accessories," he said after stating he felt there was no need to put a drive inside their console.

The media ran with it -- "Blu-ray player for Xbox 360 confirmed." Hell, we even did, too. While the statement is unclear, it's likely it was misinterpreted; Ballmer was likely referring to standalone Blu-ray drives that would hit the market in general... not for the Xbox 360 in particular. Microsoft, after all, have just begun to up the digital distribution ante with 1080p streaming using the Xbox 360 and the Zune Video Marketplace.

But that's not to say it won't or will never happen. We asked EEDAR analyst Jesse Divnich his thoughts on the future of Microsoft adopting Blu-ray technology for its console. 

"Blu-ray integration in the Xbox 360 is not out of the question," he says, "but there will have to be many failing points for that to be true first."

Divnich feels that in order for Microsoft to even consider it, the digital distribution of high-definition would have to fail. HDTV adoption (currently at 33%), he says, would have to exceed 60%. Blu-ray disc sales would have to overcome sales of DVDs, as well. Even then, he believes that there would have to be a noticeable impact on Xbox 360 sales due to its lack of Blu-ray integration.

"Until then, Microsoft will continue to promote digital high-definition in the attempts to undermine the Blu-ray format as a standard for high-definition deliver," he says.

As for what everyone had interpreted Ballmer as saying -- that there would be a Blu-ray player accessory for the console -- he believes it's possible. But it all comes down to consumer demand, among other factors and variables that are "much bigger than the videogame industry," including pressure from movie studios and publishers. 

"A Blu-ray accessory is also not out of the question," he does note, "but again, it comes down to what consumers want and until consumers begin to overwhelmingly demand a Blu-ray player accessory, Microsoft won't make one available."

When asked, Divnich isn't even sure that in today's market, Blu-ray support is a deciding factor when consumers make a console purchase anyhow.

"Blu-ray could be a deciding factor for consumers a few years from now, but currently the majority of consumers who buy a PS3 buy it for its gaming and online content, not for its ability to play Blu-ray movies," he says. "Blu-ray discs are still 30% more than DVD discs and those prices need to come down before the Blu-ray format becomes accessible to the masses."

He's also quick to point out that he's not trying to trying to paint Sony and its Blu-ray device in a negative light. 

"It really does deliver on quality and enhances the movie watching experience," he admits. "I am just saying, as of today, Xbox 360 consumers are not begging for Blu-ray integration." 

---

If you're an Xbox 360 owner, tell us -- are you begging for Blu-ray? If you're a PlayStation 3 owner, was that decision based on the support for Blu-ray movies, or something else? 

[Note: During the writing of this piece, Major Nelson has issued a clear and official statement on this: "I wanted to clear something up. Steve was referring to Blu-Ray accessories for the PC," he writes, adding. "We have no plans to introduce a Blu-Ray drive for the Xbox 360."] 








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44 comments | showing # 1 to 44
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Tarvu's Avatar - Comment posted on 10/22/2009 21:08
Tarvu
I have an xbox 360. As much as I will want to break into BluRay eventually because I love my HD films, I wouldn't want a 360 add-on. For me it would be too messy, getting an internal PC drive would be much more practical. Also, the HD-DVD drive my friend owns seemed to stutter when used on a 1080p display.

I guess people would be open to the idea depending on how much they want BluRay films and tv and what other paths to it are open to them.
Wyldcard's Avatar - Comment posted on 10/22/2009 21:23
Wyldcard
I have both consoles and Blu-Ray was never a factor for me because I'm primairly a gamer, so that means GAMES -> MOVIES so Blu-Ray or not, it doesn't really affect the games coming out on the platform, so I didn't pick up a PS3 until last month, and I've had a 360 since launch. They should concentrate their efforts on the gaming experience rather than general entertainment.

I know Blu-Ray is the future for gaming due to its huge capacity, but in the now, it doesn't really give an edge to the PS3.
HEL105's Avatar - Comment posted on 10/22/2009 21:24
HEL105
I think most 360 owners have a seperate Blu-Ray player of some kind (like me), or don't want a Blu-Ray player right now.

I'm still much more likely to buy most movies on DVD instead of Blu-Ray, because they're rarely worth the extra expense. Blu-Rays aren't going to start outselling DVDs for a while.

The main selling point for the PS3 definitely was Blu-Ray for a while, but now the games are definitely there. That's what's driving me to look into buying one, when I was never particularly interested before.
The Trout's Avatar - Comment posted on 10/22/2009 21:29
The Trout
I'm not sure why, but that header pic generated the biggest laugh I've ever gotten out of Destructoid before.
Jon B's Avatar - Comment posted on 10/22/2009 21:31
Jon B
If I want Blu-ray, I'll get a PS3. It does more than just bluray and is pretty much the same price.
matrixdude171's Avatar - Comment posted on 10/22/2009 21:43
matrixdude171
...... obviously because nobody wants to spend more money to microsoft for features that will come standard in the next xbox
Doos's Avatar - Comment posted on 10/22/2009 21:47
Doos
I have a 360, and an HDTV and I plan on picking up a PS3 this month... but not for the Blu-Ray. That doesn't even factor into the purchase. I just want the console for the exclusives.

The only time I will ever feel the need to THINK about renting a Blu-Ray disk is when whatever new action flick comes out. 'Cause otherwise, I don't care.
Electrium's Avatar - Comment posted on 10/22/2009 21:48
Electrium
In the earlier article, I said something about how it was kind of cool that Microsoft was taking a shameful fall. I take that back. >_> I should've known! An external Blu-ray drive would be kind of strange.

He does have a point though. I could care less about blu-ray. Yeah it's freakin' awesome, so are Bose speakers, but I don't care that much about it.

I like his point about how most PS3 owners don't buy it for blu-ray. It's very much a perk, but it's not the deciding factor more often than not. I think in the end we can all agree that as long as our games look pretty, we can be happy customers. =D
Jonathan Melancon's Avatar - Comment posted on 10/22/2009 21:51
Jonathan Melancon
A 360 BR drive from MS, while paying sony for it, would cost 200+. With that, you could just buy a PS3. No thanks.
Xzyliac's Avatar - Comment posted on 10/22/2009 21:58
Xzyliac
Did I just a witty header on DToid? As in funny without raunchiness or explicit language? Apocalypse now!?

Anywho I say just leave Bluray to the PS3. There's no reason to change things all of a sudden.
Sherwood513's Avatar - Comment posted on 10/22/2009 22:17
Sherwood513
I dun give a rat's ass about blueray to be honest. I can watch movies just fine in hd on the 360 I don't think blueray is good enough to warrant me wanting it. The only reason I would want a PS3 is for the exclusives.
Guncannon's Avatar - Comment posted on 10/22/2009 22:20
Guncannon
It makes sense. It's the same reason why the Gamecube variant that could play DVDs was never released outside Japan (I believe): Blu-ray players are quickly becoming affordable enough that a console's ability to play them isn't essential enough to provide enough of an incentive to buy the new model/accessory.

Still, for the storage space alone, the next generation of systems will at the very least use Blu-ray, if not one of the even larger storage mediums being developed. Of course, I'm saying that believing that digital distribution won't totally replace physical media that soon.
the7k's Avatar - Comment posted on 10/22/2009 22:21
the7k
Why purchase of the PS3 was based, mostly, on the free online.

I also enjoyed the fact that it included WiFi (necessary for my gaming set-up), easy hard-drive upgrading options (currently using a 250GB that I got about 1.5 years ago for $45), mouse/keyboard support (most games early this gen were FPSs, and I wouldn't play them any other way) and custom controller support (I have an X-Arcade, and I use it for all my fighting games), but the free online play was the biggest selling point for me. Blu-Ray was nothing but a fringe benefit.
makesfive's Avatar - Comment posted on 10/22/2009 22:33
makesfive
I got a ps3 'cause of the exclusives, and because my brother's on his fifth 360 now and I just wasn't keen to share the experience of the rrod/melty hardware.

My most favorite feature of my PS3 though, is the hard drive. I can upgrade it any time I damn well please, and I can store a shitload of videos on it so I don't have to play Find The DVD.

BR is pretty much automatic fail to me at this point because I have a shitton of dvds and rebuying them all at higher prices is not my idea of a good time.
Infinitys End's Avatar - Comment posted on 10/22/2009 23:06
Infinitys End
DEVELOPERS
DEVELOPERS
DEVELOPERS
DEVELOPERS
Noah's Avatar - Comment posted on 10/22/2009 23:06
Noah
Who would buy a $200 (I'm guessing) Blu Ray add-on when they could just get a PS3 for $300?
Christopher Goodno's Avatar - Comment posted on 10/22/2009 23:25
Christopher Goodno
Sounds pretty accurate to me.
Valthonis's Avatar - Comment posted on 10/22/2009 23:26
Valthonis
The longer they drag their feet on BluRay, the more HDTV owners are going to go out and spend their money with a company that isn't Microsoft to get their own BluRay player. That said, though, a friend had the HD-DVD drive for his XBox Elite and between the drive itself and the wind-tunnel fans on the Elite it was difficult to hear the movies over the noise without turning things up to an unreasonable volume. It's probably best that MS leave the home theatre gear to people who sweat about ambient noise.
bandalf's Avatar - Comment posted on 10/22/2009 23:43
bandalf
Semi-casual gamer here. I made the switch from the xbox to ps3 about a month ago now. I'd say the best decision ever made- in gaming anyway. The blu ray was the deciding factor for me. I looked over the gaming potential for each system and in my opinion they come up about the same. One can tell what way the wind blows. Despite the hesitation seen by people when deciding to spend the extra bucks for blu ray, they do it. The difference is pronounced. If you own a ps3 then you know you made the better choice.
Tuxy79's Avatar - Comment posted on 10/22/2009 23:56
Tuxy79
*sigh*

Just find a way to make Netflix available outside US please.
ydarkage's Avatar - Comment posted on 10/22/2009 23:59
ydarkage
@Tuxy79

I´m with you!
Bob Muir's Avatar - Comment posted on 10/23/2009 00:09
Bob Muir
Since I initially bought my PS3 in mid-2008 when we were just seeing hints of a library of exclusives that would make buying the console worth it, the primary reasons I bought a used 60GB PS3 were for superior PS2 game upscaling compared to my actual PS2 (and had to get it before the BC models became too hard to find) and Blu-ray. Even if more people buy it for games, it's easy to overlook the fact that a good number of videophiles buy a PS3 because it's one of the best Blu-ray players out there. Now that it's only $300, I'm sure even more people would consider paying extra for it over a regular player.

Really, though, I have no need for a 360 Blu-ray add-on, and I have a feeling not many other people do either. If they want a Blu-ray player, I'm sure they'd rather just go buy a cheap model for about the same price as a 360 add-on would be.
Serpentish's Avatar - Comment posted on 10/23/2009 00:55
Serpentish
Pft, the girl walking down the street may not be asking for surprise anal but that doesn't mean I'm not going to give it to her.
Qraze's Avatar - Comment posted on 10/23/2009 01:17
Qraze
its the future of physical media at this moment. if microsoft's xbox don't do away with dvd's by next generation it'll only hurt them as developers will need more space on discs and won't want to have to pay for 3-5 dvd based game boxes.
Black Nexus's Avatar - Comment posted on 10/23/2009 01:25
Black Nexus
isnt trying to undermine blu ray kinda delaying the inevitable at this point?
BluDesign's Avatar - Comment posted on 10/23/2009 01:35
BluDesign
"A Blu-ray accessory is also not out of the question," he does notes, "but again, it comes down to what consumers want and until consumers begin to overwhelmingly demand a Blu-ray player accessory, Microsoft won't make one available."

Okay, Microsoft, I demand a Blu Ray accessory. You peddled that HD DVD drive until long after the format died, you left models to rot on Fry's shelves even to this day. Drop the BS line of "digital distribution must fail..." It just has to fail on your platform. Digital distribution is more widely spread than just XBLM and Netflix streaming, but that's not what I'm after. I not only want 1080p video, I want full multichannel sound, high bit rate video, and a freaking physical copy of the movie. And OWN that copy of the movie. Your stupid ass digital distribution platform won't even SELL an HD copy of a movie to me even if I wanted to pay for it.

If I want to watch throwaway junk on TV, I'll make those small sacrifices, but for the movies I love, I really do not want a digital copy that I can't own.

When asked, Divnich isn't even sure that in today's market, Blu-ray support is a deciding factor when consumers make a console purchase anyhow.

It was for me. That was the reason I bought a PS3. It was a console with a Blu Ray player in it. The fact that it was also a media center and played games were all pluses for me and most definitely secondary traits I was looking for in getting a Blu Ray player. It was not primarily for the games. And Divnich, if you're not sure, do some market research. Isn't that what you do?

Speaking of statistical research, would you care to explain why HDTV adoption rates were so low, yet we were pushing as hard as we did for the switch to drop the NTSC analog broadcast signal for ATSC? If it was only at 33%, your organization should have tried harder to block the transition until HDTV penetration is higher. I think essential terrestrial broadcast television is a far more important figure to quote HDTV equipment sales over than Blu Ray, but I digress... You have your "quote" to look after.

"Blu-ray could be a deciding factor for consumers a few years from now, but currently the majority of consumers who buy a PS3 buy it for its gaming and online content, not for its ability to play Blu-ray movies," he says. "Blu-ray discs are still 30% more than DVD discs and those prices need to come down before the Blu-ray format becomes accessible to the masses."

No, actually most of the consumers I saw buying one last Christmas were buying it for a copy of The Dark Knight. Everyone I know that owns one, most of them are FOR MOVIES AND GAMES, not either one exclusively. Prices for Blu Rays have fallen in price to match the same price point that DVD's were at back in 1999. In fact, with inflation adjustments, DVD's were actually more expensive than Blu Rays are now back at that time. A $25 DVD back in 1999 would be the equivalent of buying a $35 Blu Ray. And almost all Blu Rays are priced in the range of $20-$30 at retail prices. Very few people even pay those prices anyway with the volume of sales that have been seen at retail this year. I've paid less per disc for my Blu Rays this year than I did for my first year of collecting DVD's back in 1998. I paid $45 for a copy of This is Spinal Tap at retail back in 1998. I can go buy it today at retail for $20. Terminator 2 cost $30 at retail in 2000. I bought it on Blu Ray for $12.

What's a good price for you on Blu Ray? $20? $10? You can go buy Wizard of Oz for $20 at Wal-Mart. Amazon was selling Snow White in it's first week for $9.99.

So does it have to be free before it's price competitive?

How about the 6 sales that Amazon's done this year for Buy 2 Get 1 free sales on new Blu Ray discs? Since that boils down around $75 of discs to $50, it cuts the price for 3 discs down to $16 a disc. Still not cheap enough for you? I'm sure there's some Mexican Grocery store looking to sell you a nice 30 pack of the greatest Lucha movies of all time for $20. That's a helluva deal.

Jobs in market research and survey must be so easy to come by since you don't really have to do any real survey of how people use their purchases, do you?
Your Moms Hot Lover's Avatar - Comment posted on 10/23/2009 01:46
Your Moms Hot Lover
why does anyone still buy movies at all on any format? Seriously, it's just not enough bang for your buck entertainment wise.

I'm all about the streaming so to me, netflix on 360 is a way bigger deal than blu ray and I will never buy an add on or seperate drive. If it's in my next console or laptop then ok, but it's not a factor for me.
Stahlbrand's Avatar - Comment posted on 10/23/2009 02:36
Stahlbrand
Bluray is not a strong draw for me. I don't watch a whole tonne of movies to begin with, and I tend to download or stream them anyways when I do.
Tarvu's Avatar - Comment posted on 10/23/2009 03:01
Tarvu
@bandalf

That sounds like the reasoning of a casual gamer alright.
Discarded Couch Sandwich's Avatar - Comment posted on 10/23/2009 04:17
Discarded Couch Sandwich
Can someone explain to me the point of a blu-ray accessory to a console. Surely it would be better for a person to simply buy a standalone blu-ray player, that isn't restricted to going wherever your Xbox goes?

Maybe it would be cheaper, right now I'm not sure on the prices. All I know is that when the HD-DVD add on came out over here it cost a massive £110 for the standalone device, and I can't think of anyone who would buy into that!
Sexualchocolate's Avatar - Comment posted on 10/23/2009 04:28
Sexualchocolate
Those of us with a house and a family, who game in our living rooms rather than our bedrooms have spouses that like to watch movies with us sometimes. For us, the blu-ray drive of the PS3 is probably it's second most used feature. Well, it'd be a close call between BR and PlayTV.

Sure I personally prefer games to movies, but the Mrs doesn't want to watch my play games ALL of the time, and to get the most out of that expensive 1080p LCD you need a blu-ray player / PS3.

It's such a waste to be one of the 35% who are HD enabled and to just run fucking DVD's through it. It's people wasting their HD TV like that that are slowing the uptake of HD TV's.

When your mates come round and you put a Blu-ray on, they want a HD TV, no questions asked, it looks fucking awesome! When they come round and you put a DVD on, they think "Why bother upgrading to HD?"

With the prices as they are, if you need to buy a TV, you might as well get a HD one, doesn't have to be huge, but HD is pretty much a given for a new TV.
MCChampaignMillionaire's Avatar - Comment posted on 10/23/2009 06:45
MCChampaignMillionaire
I will use DVDs as long as it is not necessary to use Blue-Rays...and then a secondary Blue-Ray Player for Plug-In would be nice...
Midgetsnowman's Avatar - Comment posted on 10/23/2009 07:10
Midgetsnowman
@Sexualchocolate: The problem there being, why bother getting a new TV unless your current one breaks?

My SDTV shows no signs of failing and probably has a good 5-6 years of life left in it. So to me, HD is a silly and pointless debacle that i have no intention of buying until it costs less than 200 dollars or so and my tv breaks.
MarcAndr Dsilets's Avatar - Comment posted on 10/23/2009 08:23
MarcAndr Dsilets
The big problem for microsoft is that if I want a blu-ray player, I will buy a ps3. I have a some friends who dont have any next-gen console right now and will buy a PS3 because of it's blu-ray player. Even is some of you are hardcore player who buy console only for playing, that doesn't reflect the reality of the mass market right now.

The reality is that they sold more than 54 Million Wii and they are releasing Facebook on 360 :P
Sexualchocolate's Avatar - Comment posted on 10/23/2009 08:48
Sexualchocolate
Hey Midgetsnowman - That's the main reason for the slow uptake of HD, people don't buy TV's until theirs breaks and that's totally fair enough. But when it does break, there's no point in buying a HD TV. It's just an issue for the TV industry that i'm pretty sure they've adapted to. I mean i bet it was the same with colour TV's, but eventually it will become the norm to have a HD TV.

I only got mine because i didn't have a decent TV, I'd just moved into a new place with the mrs and had only a little bedroom TV, i say little, it was 20 odd inches, but a boxy old SD jobby, and wanted something more living room suitable.

But I'm talking general TV use, as a user of a PS3 / 360 you've instantly got a damn good reason to buy a HDTV. - Have you not come across those games with text too small to read in SD? eeeewwwwww.

HD gaming is the shit yo.

The other thing we have in the UK at least is the imminent digital switchover, so people who are going to need to buy a new TV anyway, may as well buy a HD one. Although I think most of them will get away with a freeview box, but with pretty much all HDTV's including one, it's probably the best time to buy a HD set.

I bought mine quite a while back, 42 inch, 1080p LCD, Philips with "virtual surround sound (TV reflects sound off the back wall, although this makes the sound pretty shit unless mounted on a wall / run through an optical cable to the stereo), was reduced from £1000 to £700, plus i got a deal code for 10% off on the web and 12 month interest free credit.

I only recently finished paying for it, but after my PS3 and my car, it's my most prized purchase.

I <3 my TV very muchly.
TheGlue29's Avatar - Comment posted on 10/23/2009 09:08
TheGlue29
I dunno. Making a Blu Ray drive available to 360 users is okay, but again, the accessory itself will cost almost as much as a PS3, and honestly, I'd rather have a second console if the accessory is that close in cost.

Of course I'm a PS3 user, so I have no such quandry. But if I was a 360 owner and wanted a Blu Ray, I'd just get a PS3.

I was going to pick up a 360 with my tax refund, but I think I may hold out 'till next summer just to make sure they don't jack Xbox Live Gold up to $100.
rsquad's Avatar - Comment posted on 10/23/2009 09:46
rsquad
SONY: PAY ME!

Microsoft: ok...
David Macphail's Avatar - Comment posted on 10/23/2009 09:58
David Macphail
I'm guessing Microsoft are holding off from adopting Blu - Ray for as long as possible as some sort of "damage control". i mean, it hasn't been long since Microsoft famously ploughed millions of dollars into the HD - DVD format which only lasted about 10 days before the format went bust.

If Microsoft put Blu - Ray in the 360 you know there's plenty of media websites that will have headlines like "Microsoft to Sony: Please let us use your almighty format, we'll do anything, we know we suck." or "Microsoft comes crawling back to Blu - Ray" or "Digital Distribution is the future but Blu - Ray is for today". This would all be rightly so, of course. However Microsoft wants to avoid begging until things start looking up for them.

This whole Digital Distribution thing is a load of garbage though, let's be honest. The only people who would want DD is fat, lazy people who can't be bothered walking to the shops. Physical media will NEVER be replaced during our lifetime - i'd bet money on that. Unless Microsoft want to continue using dinoasaur technology (Otherwise known as DVD) for it's games, they're gonna have to admit they were wrong by the next generation of consoles.
DGX Goggles's Avatar - Comment posted on 10/23/2009 11:11
DGX Goggles
Its true though. The money I waste on a player and all the disks, would be better spent on just slapping on another TB of drive space. Which would also have more things than just videos that I could use it for. Blu-ray like most things Sony promotes, is just too early. Digital distribution is where its at right now. I don't need this for my 360. I didn't need HD-DVD either by the way, so don't be getting all "360fanboy bs" on me.
Clown Baby's Avatar - Comment posted on 10/23/2009 12:24
Clown Baby
We'll all get on it when it takes over DVD (like VHS and Cassettes before them), but right now I don't really care. I hardly buy any movies as it is, I don't want to pay the extra early adoption Blu-Ray movie price of $30+.
necrozen's Avatar - Comment posted on 10/23/2009 12:33
necrozen
What a turn around. I remember the days when people bitched that ps3 didn't have games, but it was good for a bluray. Now I see people saying they dont give a shit about bluray but they are getting a ps3 for the games!

as for me, i have a ps3. i dig blu-ray. when i do buy a movie, i buy it on bluray, but im more of a renter and I usually use the PSN store, or if they dont have the movie I want I go to the video store. If they have the movie on bluray, I rent the bluray.

All around, I like bluray. They usually have pretty cool menus and wicked extras. plus the quality is undeniable. i do think they need to come down in price to around 15 - 20 bucks for all blurays. 25-30 is too high
Black Nexus's Avatar - Comment posted on 10/23/2009 13:26
Black Nexus
@Necrozen
People are capable of changing their tune so fast these days its not even funny.
TheDreadHawk's Avatar - Comment posted on 10/23/2009 13:44
TheDreadHawk
Since I don't really own a HD TV (I'm running on a 24'' computer monitor which is pretty enough in its own right)I didn't plan on buying a PS3 because of the Blu-Ray. But I have noticed that Blu-Ray makes a huge friggin' difference. Everything seems to almost pop out at you; it's beautiful!

When it comes to a Xbox 360 accessory that plays Blu-Ray I just have to ask myself: "Why?"

Not only would Microsoft be supporting their second biggest competitor in a time where that competitor is slowly-but-surely catching up in the race, but why would they think any consumer who wants a Blu-Ray player would pay for something that HAS to work with their Xbox?

It kind of boggles my mind.
Jim's Avatar - Comment posted on 10/23/2009 22:04
Jim
I own all current generation game consoles.

But it's nice to be able to play Blu-ray discs on the PS3, otherwise I wouldn't give a sh*t about the format. DVDs are fine, have the same content and are WAY CHEAPER.

I'd only buy Blu-ray discs when the price comes down to DVD levels.
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