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Analyst: DJ Hero demand is well below expectations photo

It's got the "Hero" name and is being backed by the Activision marketing machine, but analyst Doug Creutz of Cowan and Company believes DJ Hero is not setting the world afire as one might expect. The latest addition to the plastic toy instrument genre is said to be suffering from an alleged slowdown in music game sales, something that not even Daft Punk can counteract.

"On DJ Hero, despite some recent positive comments from company management about pre-orders, we remain very cautious about the title's prospects at launch," Creutz tells investors. "A survey of online retailers indicates a demand profile that is well below what we would have expected to see just a few days before launch for a title that was destined to be a big (or even modest) success.

"... We still believe that DJ Hero will be an important part of Activision Blizzard's music franchise strategy, but we think it may take a few versions of the game for it to reach its full market potential (similar to the original Guitar Hero)."

I could easily see DJ Hero being the proverbial straw that broke the music game camel's back. Its rather convoluted premise feels very much like a "jumping the shark" moment, and it wouldn't surprise me to see it turning people off and suggesting that music games have maybe had their moment in the Sun.

Of course, it also wouldn't surprise me to see the game becoming a big success either, with Activision forcing it into our brains via its almighty marketing powers. I guess we'll have to wait and see just how well it does before declaring the music genre dead in the water.


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42 comments | showing # 1 to 42

redban's Avatar - Comment posted on 10/26/2009 10:25
redban
I know a lot of people with preorders. Therefore, this article is wrong.
GoldenGamerXero's Avatar - Comment posted on 10/26/2009 10:30
GoldenGamerXero
Well actually considering this is a more original idea then simply copying everything Harmonix and Rock Band doesI want this too suceed. I would be disappointed to give them the impression that we're fine with Guitar Hero as long as they don't change anything about it.
Vedicardi2's Avatar - Comment posted on 10/26/2009 10:36
Vedicardi2
wait, they're planning on doing more than one DJ hero? dear god...
Steel Brotha's Avatar - Comment posted on 10/26/2009 10:38
Steel Brotha
From what we've heard about the gameplay, it's simply switching between two predetermined songs. That's not really DJing. I can see a lot of people being extremely disappointed with this gameplay if they actually know about DJing. True DJing isn't what you see at the dance club filled with guidos, it's using a a 3-4 samples to add flavour to an original beat. Take anything done by Gang Starr or the RZA from Wu-Tang for example. Stoupe The Enemy of Mankind from the Jedi Mind Tricks is also a great mention. Simply switching between Eminem's My Name is and Jay-Z's I.Z.Z.O isn't going to have people buy DJ Hero 2.
Oncomouse's Avatar - Comment posted on 10/26/2009 10:38
Oncomouse
I think the problem with DJ Hero is the music selection. Rock Band and most Guitar Heroes have a nice continuum of rock music that is at least somewhat cohesive.

DJ music is much more compartmentalized. Some people like techno, some like hip hop/rap stuff, club stuff, etc. There's not a lot of crossover there, which doesn't make for a very compelling package for people who are just music fans. Rock Band/Guitar hero bring in people that don't normally play games, or maybe just Madden. I don't see DJ Hero having that sort of mass appeal.
gains's Avatar - Comment posted on 10/26/2009 10:39
gains
I could probably be considered a bigger fan of electronic music than rock, but I was totally disinterested in this game from the first announcement. Trust me, I was surprised too, considering the post counts I've logged up at IDM and EBM forums. Maybe it's the more static behavior of the DJ in performance, but I'm not excited by a electronic acts on stage, so I'd rather listen to an album than watch a guy standing behind a desk twiddling knobs. Hell, I fell asleep on the floor at an Autechre concert. And those tickets were not cheap.

Rock stars are more identifiable to the mainstream audience that made the Hero games great. Even if Richard D James (Aphex Twin) gets to bang French supermodels, more people can identify Eddie Van Halen at sight.
whormongr's Avatar - Comment posted on 10/26/2009 10:44
whormongr
@Steel Brotha: not really sure it isn't just mixing 2 tracks but it is a lot more than mixing a few samples in when I spin I spin jungle/glitch/breakcore and it isn't either of the 2 statements, it is mashing/effecting/freestyling and a bunch of other crap - half the time I am just making new tracks by looping and mashing 2 or more songs (since sometimes I create mashups and live mix 2 or more mashups)
Twiggy's Avatar - Comment posted on 10/26/2009 10:48
Twiggy
Despite being closer to 'mashup hero' than DJ Hero, I still really want it to succeed... maybe just because I will buy any game that allows one to play as Daft Punk, but because it actually looks like that rare music game that gives you some measure of control over the sound and the way you play. I enjoy GH/RB, but it doesn't have a lot of allowance for personal style beyond star power and a whammy bar. DJ Hero lets you choose when to rewind and how to use samples on top of the predetermined mix. If it added a lot of custom options in mixes and samples as DLC, it could be amazing. I'm not sure I'll get it at launch, but I really really *want* to.
Xzyliac's Avatar - Comment posted on 10/26/2009 10:53
Xzyliac
Renegade perorder over here.

I don't think they'll have a problem selling this. I don't what expectations are but failure to meet expectations isn't always a failure in sales. So you sold 800,000 units and not a million. Still a helluva profit.

@Steel Brotha
That's true but Rock Band isn't anywhere near what true drumming or guitaring is either. There's a line mate. Nobody said this was a simulator.
covah's Avatar - Comment posted on 10/26/2009 10:53
covah
Good. Activision needs to learn a lesson. I hope Tony Hawk Ride bombs as well. That game probably has a bigger chance of bombings, I've seen almost ZERO ads for it. And what it comes out in like two weeks?
Sexualchocolate's Avatar - Comment posted on 10/26/2009 10:59
Sexualchocolate
Uh, it's probably because it's wank. No?
Tarvu's Avatar - Comment posted on 10/26/2009 11:03
Tarvu
I can't imagine as many people fascinate about DJing as do about playing Guitar.
Xzyliac's Avatar - Comment posted on 10/26/2009 11:06
Xzyliac
@covah
I actually agree with you there. I hope RIDE bombs hardcore.

@sexualchocolate
No you just hate Activision. Way to be objective bro!
Video Cognito's Avatar - Comment posted on 10/26/2009 11:08
Video Cognito
How exactly does DJ Hero have a "convoluted premise"?
Ehkard's Avatar - Comment posted on 10/26/2009 11:09
Ehkard
@Tarvu

You're an idiot, of course there is.
TheStripe's Avatar - Comment posted on 10/26/2009 11:30
TheStripe
I hate activision. I also think the era of plastic peripherals is over. I also also think that the DJ craze is over. If this came out when Oakenfake was ruling the charts, it would be a different story. I think it's not going to sell all that well.
neveranything's Avatar - Comment posted on 10/26/2009 11:37
neveranything
One problem that I can see with DJ Hero that isn't as present as Guitar Hero is the audience. Guitar Hero has a wider audience, both within and outside the major gaming community, because of the genres of music it covers. Classic rock, hard rock, and heavy metal simply have a wider audience than rap/hip-hop, electornica, dance/trance, ect...

I just don't see DJ Hero pulling in as many casual gamers and non-gamers as Guitar Hero has.
deadline's Avatar - Comment posted on 10/26/2009 11:38
deadline
I think the number of "air guitarists" and "air drummers" out there far exceed the number of...uhhh..."air DJs(?)". Seriously, does the average person even understand what this game is about? It is not nearly as straightforward as playing rock guitar/drums.
Bigmoose85's Avatar - Comment posted on 10/26/2009 11:40
Bigmoose85
This game will fail & you wanna know why.... it wont have this

http://www.imeem.com/people/bN3v8-/music/6HxZltJ3/disco-dan-into-the-fray/

or this

http://www.imeem.com/people/bN3v8-/music/ce4KJMhO/disco-dan-disco-dan-mega-man-iii-01/
Xzyliac's Avatar - Comment posted on 10/26/2009 11:42
Xzyliac
@neveranything
I have to say maybe it's because I live in a different area, have a different group of friends, I dunno but I think there is just as big an audience for DJ Hero as Guitar Hero. Frankly I don't get where any of you are getting that from. I'm interested to know. There's gotta be some sociology behind that.
Nortonantivirus's Avatar - Comment posted on 10/26/2009 11:49
Nortonantivirus
I played the demo at Best Buy and I was not impressed. Keeping the crossfader centered is hard, because the "click" or whatever you want to call it is not strong enough to feel. Also, It wants you to start scratching right before the note(?) streak. It might be a latency issue, but I turned away not liking it. Plus, the mash-ups they had going on were not cool. I was watching some people play it, and most people where just confused by it. So, IMO casual gamers are going to turn away from it.

Plus, no Hatsune Miku. Just saying.
Naim Master's Avatar - Comment posted on 10/26/2009 11:58
Naim Master
There's only one thing turning me off on this game, they're all stupid remixes, I'd rather play Robot Rock than play Robot Rock + We will rock you...
testmunky's Avatar - Comment posted on 10/26/2009 12:01
testmunky
@Xzyliac
"...we are reducing our estimate for DJ Hero Q4 US unit sales from 1.6 million to 600,000, and we are reducing our first year estimate from 2.5 million to 950,000."

Thats the cut in sales projections the analyst made.
Awesine's Avatar - Comment posted on 10/26/2009 12:02
Awesine
Oh well, I guess this means no Keytar Hero. :(
Steel Brotha's Avatar - Comment posted on 10/26/2009 12:14
Steel Brotha
@ Xzyliac
"That's true but Rock Band isn't anywhere near what true drumming or guitaring is either. There's a line mate. Nobody said this was a simulator."

That's true but at least with Guitar Hero/ Rock Band it actually is much closer to the instrument than the gameplay DJ Hero.

I don't want this game to succeed to be honest. I want Scratch: The Ultimate DJ to be big, due to the fact that's it's actually more of a DJ game than this Wii Music: DJ Edition. Guess Activision won't be making a DJ Hero: DJ Big Herc Edition or Afrika Bambaattaa Edition.
Xzyliac's Avatar - Comment posted on 10/26/2009 12:17
Xzyliac
@testmunky
Those are despite postive responses from retailers. I think those are worst case scenario numbers. And suppose 600,000 units ship and 150,000 of those users each buy one-three pieces of DLC each at $2 there's still a lot of porift to be had from that. At least enough change in there to invest in another lame GH spinoff.

At the end of the day I think these are worst case scenario numbers and even then there's nothing about those numbers to call failure.
BluDesign's Avatar - Comment posted on 10/26/2009 12:35
BluDesign
I think the music selection is too niche (even though I love me some daft punk and some of the mixes), the gameplay is dead boring from an observational stand point and for it to be a 3rd generational music game the fact that it's single player even further limits appeal. Guitar Hero was a party game even in the original version with the ability to do handoffs of guitar parts. It'll just feel weird to do that on DJ hero as crossfaded sections of songs aren't even close to simulating a DJ battle in a club.

On top of all of it I saw the demo being played at Best Buy. Not very inspiring. Maybe I'll need to give it a whirl myself instore but I have no real plans on buying it after that little presentation.

If they had any hopes of letting a title like this to succeed, it needs the ability for the player to import their own music.

I don't care what ends up on a disc, it will end up stale and old by the time an electronic music fan gets their hands on it. Hell, most daft punk fans are ready for the band to move on from Remixing Discovery era tracks.
JamnOnTheOne's Avatar - Comment posted on 10/26/2009 12:58
JamnOnTheOne
"Of course, it also wouldn't surprise me to see the game becoming a big success either, with Activision forcing it into our brains via its almighty marketing powers."

Take a relatively niche music genre (outside of the college demographic), require expensive hardware, and promote it with a band that a lot of people have never heard of (Daft Punk). Sounds like a multi-million seller to me!

Note: I do know and enjoy Daft Punk, but I'm not blind enough to admit that many people have no idea who the hell they are.
fuze54's Avatar - Comment posted on 10/26/2009 13:51
fuze54
I tried it out and I love it. I don't own guitar hero anymore, but I still play Rock band 2 and Beatles regularly. Not sure also why everyone is saying that rap/hiphop doesn't have as much mass appeal because talking from a mainstream point of view, that shit is selling like hot cakes. I hope it does well and am picking it up tomorrow along with Tekken 6.
Oncomouse's Avatar - Comment posted on 10/26/2009 14:00
Oncomouse
@fuze54

Rap/Hip Hop do well, but there's a lot of Daft Punk style house, techno, etc. in there as well. Those strike me as very different audiences.
Holyetheline's Avatar - Comment posted on 10/26/2009 14:10
Holyetheline
I'm not buying it... I'm still sort of interested but yeah...
Knives's Avatar - Comment posted on 10/26/2009 14:32
Knives
Maybe, just maybe, people don't wanna spend $120 when a ton of other games are coming out?
Xzyliac's Avatar - Comment posted on 10/26/2009 14:40
Xzyliac
@Oncomouse
Then you've been struck very wrong.
Br0th3rGr1mm's Avatar - Comment posted on 10/26/2009 15:04
Br0th3rGr1mm
This is really simple folks.

Everyone that dreamed of playing a guitar in a rock band at some point go stand over there.

Eveyrone that ever dreamed of being a rap scratch DJ stand over there...no farther away...keep going...just a bit further. No outside the door. That's it.
akathatoneguy's Avatar - Comment posted on 10/26/2009 15:14
akathatoneguy
Seriously? What were expectations? That you could throw anything out there with "Hero" on it and yet another required peripheral to clog up living rooms everywhere, and it will sell like crazy?

Wait, I just answered my own question.
Oncomouse's Avatar - Comment posted on 10/26/2009 15:44
Oncomouse
@Xzyliac

I could very well be wrong. I'm more of a rock guy myself.
MushroomStamp's Avatar - Comment posted on 10/26/2009 16:00
MushroomStamp
Boooo!.. Sellouts.. The track list sucks. I want REAL DJ’s… Tiesto, Sasha, Digweed, Debo… This game isn’t DJ.. It’s hip Hop Remix garbage.
redban's Avatar - Comment posted on 10/26/2009 16:07
redban
@MushroomStamp
Tiesto?
the fuck
Ztrip, Jeff, AM...
Occams electric toothbrush's Avatar - Comment posted on 10/26/2009 16:39
Occams electric toothbrush
My white guilt has forced me to buy this game.
Doomsday Forte's Avatar - Comment posted on 10/26/2009 18:41
Doomsday Forte
I want to copyright Hero Hero just to piss off Activision when they finally get around to it.

Why yes, it's an adventure game using a plastic sword with colored keys on it. Swish swish, baby.
BurnAway's Avatar - Comment posted on 10/26/2009 21:10
BurnAway
I hope this doesnt discourage them to stop, I really want them to keep going and make Bagpipe hero... Called it
DGX Goggles's Avatar - Comment posted on 10/27/2009 00:08
DGX Goggles
I can't even stand Guitar Hero, and I don't want it yet.
Man its simple, they don't have enough artists. Especially Dre. No Dre, no play.
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