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30% of Xbox 360 consoles are made of FAIL
Jim Sterling06.21.08 - 7:42 PM 70 comments

30% of Xbox 360 consoles are made of FAIL screenshot

Listening to Microsoft might lead you to believe that all is roses and sunshine in the world of the Xbox 360. After all, the company's never been slow to claim that the old 'red rings of death' problem afflicting Xbox 360 machines is not as widespread an issue as we might think. However, a new report from SmartHouse calls the failure rate for the Xbox 360 'massive' and suggests that as many as 30% of the consoles are being sent back to Microsoft for repairs.

The report also details shoddy repair practices, including the story of one consumer in Australia who was sent back a dirty, secondhand machine instead of his own one and got seemingly dicked over by the 'Soft at every turn. Despite this and a plethora of horror stories regarding broken consoles all over the internet, Microsoft emphatically denies there is a problem, stating that "There is not a single root cause or systemic issue with any Xbox 360 console but we continue to look at ways to make improvements to our products and services." You heard MS, folks, there's no reason at all why Microsoft is having to repair so much hardware. It must be elves and goblins breaking them. 

While I do love my Xbox 360, there is no denying that Microsoft needs to get its act together for what is becoming a horrible farce. Its failure rate is said to be considerably higher than other machines and is certainly much more documented. For a company that wants the Xbox 360 to be at the top of the food chain, it needs to seriously learn how to start making the Xbox 360.

[Via Xbox360Rally and I got by with a little help from my F1tch]



MORE IN OUR xbox 360 SECTION

Latest comment by Lamfxs |view all 70 comments
All I know is that Xbox 360 is an awesome console with great games and live internet. But the console itself will not hold all the features it is made for. For example I have heard that Forza is ......



Grim's Avatar
Grim at 06/21/2007 19:42

I thought it would be higher than that.
zaqu's Avatar
zaqu at 06/21/2007 19:44

shouldnt it be more like 50% cus almost everyones returned atleast 1
Jim Sterling's Avatar
Jim Sterling at 06/21/2007 19:46

Sterling is an MS basher today btw.
BuckF1tches's Avatar
BuckF1tches at 06/21/2007 19:49

The Jim Sterling, he's so pro-Sony!!! It really pisses me off!!
indirect's Avatar
indirect at 06/21/2007 19:49

Mine is being fixed by them right now.
mrsamuel's Avatar
mrsamuel at 06/21/2007 19:49

So the failure rate is up to 30% at the present time? That's absolutely absurd. I can only imagine that it would cost Microsoft more money to fix the core issues rather than repair all of those consoles. Otherwise, Microsoft has no incentive to tolerate it, right?
BuckF1tches's Avatar
BuckF1tches at 06/21/2007 19:50

I'm on my 3rd, btw. IMO, the 360 costs $460, cuz you gotta buy that extended warranty with it.
MechaMonkey's Avatar
MechaMonkey at 06/21/2007 19:51

Exaggeration FTL, zaqu.

As always when presented with a statistic, I want to see the data and where they got it. Results from polls and surveys can be twisted however you want, no matter what the results really are.

MechaMonkey's current mood is: Skeptical
JihadJoe's Avatar
JihadJoe at 06/21/2007 19:51

I got my 360 about a month after launch. Aside for a freeze every now and then, I've never had a problem.
Ignignokt01's Avatar
Ignignokt01 at 06/21/2007 19:57

Mine STILL hasn't had a problem, but im not denying that problems are as rampant as the internet makes them seem.
TheExit's Avatar
TheExit at 06/21/2007 19:57

I had mine for 2 weeks, crapped out, got a replacement from Futureshop under their extended warrenty, then 5 months later, that one crapped out. Still awaiting for it to come back from microsoft for repairs. They better fix it good, and throw in the rumoured heat sink.
michiyoyoshiku's Avatar
michiyoyoshiku at 06/21/2007 20:01

My 360 is working fine so no contest

the internet is made of liars
Mxyzptlk's Avatar
Mxyzptlk at 06/21/2007 20:03

@ SuMizzle:

lol, wut? Maybe he's just calling a spade a spade, no matter which company he's writing about.
Jim Sterling's Avatar
Jim Sterling at 06/21/2007 20:07

guyz i herd onnisty in teh jurnalizmz wuz fur gayz n shit
ScarCeLLe13's Avatar
ScarCeLLe13 at 06/21/2007 20:11

Microsoft needs to get there shit together cause there probbly losing money to fix the broken consoles, luckaly mine still hasent had any problems so far but its only been a year into it.
Sharpless's Avatar
Sharpless at 06/21/2007 20:15

What the fuck is honest journalism?

I really believe that gamers need to rally together and get MS to recognize this shit. Dammit, it's a fucking travesty. I don't know how they can piss such obvious, clear facts so far down their legs. Seriously, I have no idea how one would start something like this, but while we're on the "start a group to get Manhunt unbanned" bandwagon, someone please kickstart a 360 group. If enough people speak out in one voice, they'll have to give a little ground.

I know that sounds a little over-the top, but this is fucking ridiculous. There should not be this many horror stories.
CagedZero's Avatar
CagedZero at 06/21/2007 20:17

i haven't had problem with my launch systems besides the fact it sounds like a jet engine every time i run it.
donkeykong's Avatar
donkeykong at 06/21/2007 20:28

Guys if you think about it, 30% is only really like 3.6 million consoles. That doesn't sound like a lot.
Jim Sterling's Avatar
Jim Sterling at 06/21/2007 20:30

SuMizzle: One works with the news one has. I apologize if my writing is not to your liking, but we do have some old Robert Summa posts in our archives.
MusashiX2's Avatar
MusashiX2 at 06/21/2007 20:34

@Sharpless

you gotta get people to not buy 360s for a decent length of time. that way MS sees the dip in sales, and knows that they are pissing off their potential customers. i'm not saying "go buy a ps3!" or "buy a wii!", nothing like that. just show MS that the people are pissed, and that they want answers.

of course... this won't work. if you get it to, i would be infinitely impressed and i will buy you a cookie.
Jim Sterling's Avatar
Jim Sterling at 06/21/2007 20:36

Musashi's right. The only time a corporation listens is when sales are affected. Uniting people in not buying something never works unless it's perfume being sprayed up rabbit's assholes.
Jim Sterling's Avatar
Jim Sterling at 06/21/2007 20:41

I agree that you should not have deviated from the topic, I'm just confused where the inconsistency is, as I have never once said that Microsoft's customer service is excellent and its machines infallible. Had I said that, then I would not be consistent.

But yes, you've let this deviate long enough.
MechaMonkey's Avatar
MechaMonkey at 06/21/2007 20:47

Deviations are not straight.

Take it as you will.
subnet6's Avatar
subnet6 at 06/21/2007 20:51

I don't know who the fuck JimSterling is, but he's pretty fucking consistent, one of the solid voices on this blog. Period.

I also have no idea if this stat is legit. I can't imagine a corporate head would lie about it but who knows. I would say that if he is telling the truth, they probably sold enough units (from different manufacturers over a long time period) to get a pretty good sample so if he's not lying, he's probably pretty close.

Anyway, there's clearly a problem, and even the answers MS gives tell us as much. The wording is pretty obvious. (we shouldn't focus on the failure but how well we were served after the fact? WTF?)

I just hope they fix it SOON, because as good as some of the games and LIVE is/are, 360 sales are slowing and a big PR SNAFU like this could really hurt in the long haul. Once you get a reputation for shitty hardware, it's REALLY hard to undo that.
Sharpless's Avatar
Sharpless at 06/21/2007 21:04

I don't pay enough the fuck attention to Jim the fuck Sterling's posts to know whether or not he's being inconsistant, so whatever. But he did say this:

"The only time a corporation listens is when sales are affected. Uniting people in not buying something never works unless it's perfume being sprayed up rabbit's assholes."

So, wait, corporations listen when sales are effected, but when people unite to affect sales, it never works? I'm feeling a little foggy tonight, but that doesn't seem to make sense to me. Either way, I don't believe a boycott would work. You'll never find enough people to stop buying the systems, but you WILL find enough people who are pissed about their broken boxes and willing to say or do something about it.
MusashiX2's Avatar
MusashiX2 at 06/21/2007 21:10

@Sharpless

you just answered your own question. you just said, "you'll never find enough people to stop buying the systems." that is why getting people to unite to affect sales, while being the effective method, won't work.
Gameboi's Avatar
Gameboi at 06/21/2007 21:11

Get em, Jim. Xbox 360 fan or not, this unbelievably high failure rate needs to be fixed by Microsoft ASAP.
Chuma's Avatar
Chuma at 06/21/2007 21:22

I actively avoiding Xbox last generation. Didn't like the company, the controller or the games on offer.

This generation I am much more impressed with what is on offer. Only ONE thing stops me buying an Xbox360 - The red ring of death. I know 5 people who have one and 4 of them have had the red ring, one of them has had it twice. It has put me off buying one completely, at least until they get their act together.

Until some truthful figures are revealed and a solution, I will have to pass on the "Next Gen" and stick with my Wii. Shame really.
Sharpless's Avatar
Sharpless at 06/21/2007 21:27

Point taken. Like I said, I'm a little foggy tonight. ;)
aborto thefetus's Avatar
aborto thefetus at 06/21/2007 21:39

Yeah my 360's startin to crap out too. I've gotten the red ring problem, although not a complete ring, thank god. It's also carved a ring in my copy of Gears yet for some odd reason it still works.
poonster's Avatar
poonster at 06/21/2007 21:55

i've had my first and only 360 for about a year and a half with no problems. i did about a month ago do a bit of soft-modding ie removed the factory thermal paste & replaced it with arctic silver 5, replaced factory fan with a whisper fan (made 12v)with a Zalman Fanmate 2 Variable Speed Fan Controller and finally added a small fan to the cpu heatsink.
i did have alot of freezing problems with GRAW 2 before the mods not one freeze since..but i shouldn't of had to do any of that to try and ward off the red rings of death
MechaMonkey's Avatar
MechaMonkey at 06/21/2007 22:20

This unbelievably high failure rate could be the product of very select polling. I once again bring up the issue of twisting data to prove a point. You can support any statement with any data if you look at it from the right angle.

I have had absolutely no problem with my Xbox 360, nor have any of my friends that own them.

I call shenanigans.

(Shenanigans are not called on Jim Sterling, but on those providing the data for this statistic. Jim Sterling is the messenger, and we're not supposed to shoot them. It's a shame when your gun accidentally goes off in their direction though. Also, the word "shenanigans" is accepted by spellcheck. This amuses me.)
MusashiX2's Avatar
MusashiX2 at 06/21/2007 22:27

@ Sharpless

it's cool.


@ MechaMonkey

while it is true that the numbers could be biased/slighted, the problem is in that it is actually believable. most of us here are thinking "man, now they definitely gotta do something about it." instead of "wow, that is definitely inaccurate." when news about 360s crapping out came right after it launched, people all around called shenanigans, saying it was due to biased and limited polling. now, it is believable. see what i mean? see how whether these numbers are true or not, that it is just sad?
MechaMonkey's Avatar
MechaMonkey at 06/21/2007 22:33

Of course it's believable. It was always believable. Although, I'd say the inverse of your statement is true, that it was more believable when the 360 was first released as it was new hardware, and bound to have problems.

I find it believable that there may in fact be a high failure rate for Xbox 360s. I do not believe that it is almost one in every 3, as these statistics say. There would have been far more of an outrage against Microsoft and it would have been all over the news if Microsoft put out a console that fails 30% of the time. There is a problem, and Microsoft should address it, but I strongly believe 30% is a gross exaggeration.
MusashiX2's Avatar
MusashiX2 at 06/21/2007 23:01

you got some good points, MechaMonkey. and btw, i fucking LOVE your avatar! lol
dr3nd4r's Avatar
dr3nd4r at 06/21/2007 23:42

Here in Chile this issue is a real pain in the ass, at least 10 of my friends had to send is 360's to repairing due to the red ring of dead. It's just shameful.

Microsoft need to fix this problems ASAP.
lAboMbA's Avatar
lAboMbA at 06/21/2007 23:48

i also have a launch console that has never given me an ounce of grief. But then again, i've never shoved that bitch in some cramped tv cabinet and/or left that mother on for hours on end.

I think if people honestly used common fucking sense, then A LOT of these 'problems' would be avoided. We're getting to the point where we're not dealing w/a SNES that we throw up against a wall and expect it to work. Things are getting hotter, more complicated, and i truly think people need to start thinking of their machines as intricate pieces of technology instead of simple consoles. I don't know of many PC's that are completely void of problems in their first 2 years of operation...i would imagine that out of all the PCs made since 2005, at least 30% have had hardware issues/malfunctions. Basically that's where we're at, assembly line PC's that have a console moniker.

Now, i could be totally off-base...especially if the PStrizzle some how avoids the same type of issues. I guess we'll see when the rinse cycle hits.
Reverend Slim's Avatar
Reverend Slim at 06/22/2007 00:35

My 9th 360 since launch (no kidding) should arrive next week. Number 8 was a refurb they sent me last week that was dead out of the box and was immediately returned. Number 3 was killed by the Fall update, Number 4 was a DOA refurb. The rest were red-ringed.

And since I know people will say I'm exaggerating, here's my collection of boxes, return boxes, and faceplates (since they tell you to remove them before you send them in):
http://img377.imageshack.us/img377/6472/monumentef8.jpg
zaqu's Avatar
zaqu at 06/22/2007 01:10

i believe it was on the new they pissed off europe with disk scratching and when the news talks about the console breaking and some genious has to make a public statement "things break ya know". it made me laugh cus i atleast was only on my second 360 but still on my first wii first ps3 and all my pc components have yet to fail
Dr Hairy Dwarf's Avatar
Dr Hairy Dwarf at 06/22/2007 02:28

I'm on #3, one launch 360 red ringed after 12months and 12 days, next was the last firmware update and so far #3 going strong.
I always keep any electrical components well ventilated, sure it gets 6+ hour sessions but why the fuck not? thats it's job.
Pete's Avatar
Pete at 06/22/2007 04:52

M$ fanboys are so funny... but inordinately irritating at the same time...

*** NOTHING could convince you there is a problem, until it happens to you. ***

When there is a massive outcry against broken consoles you either say the outcry is so exagerrated it must be lies, OR there is not enough of an outcry. Hmmm.

The amount of anecdotal evidence has now accumulated to the point that only a complete and utter fool would even dispute it.
uptonogood's Avatar
uptonogood at 06/22/2007 05:34

you repeat customers are retarded ... i'd have quit after the 3rd replacement and after that, shitted in a box and sent it back to MS wrapped in a big pink bow.
XeroxMe's Avatar
XeroxMe at 06/22/2007 06:10

My 360 is still going strong. I got it last September and it still hasn't let me down, but I'm really worried. Two of my friends have gone through 2 360s each and are working on their third. MS really needs to get those 65nm chips out because I'm pretty sure heat is the 360s true enemy.
908peruvian's Avatar
908peruvian at 06/22/2007 07:19

this is my THIRD X360!
lucky its still on warranty,
if it WASNT i would be MIGHTY pissed off too.
SO I GOT LUCKY...AND THAT WONT LAST FOREVER.

DOES ANYONE KNOW IF THESE "ELITES"
HAVE PROBLEMS TOO??
MechaMonkey's Avatar
MechaMonkey at 06/22/2007 07:21

Pete, I'm going to guess you were referring to me.

Fanboy, no. Skeptic towards most statistics, yes. Replace "Xbox 360" with "Wii" or "PS3" in this post I would have come out with the same argument. Furthermore, I have already admitted in my post that there is a problem. My problem is with the number of 30%.

In these posts I'm seeing a trend of individuals having multiple failures. People seem to have either no problems, or they can't get it to work no matter how many times they send it back. These multiple failures on single machines may be what's boosting that number, not that a third of total consoles are dying.

In any case, if I could look at the data and see for myself that the number 30 is legit, then I'd be the first to admit I was wrong. I'm just generally skeptical of any statistics until I've seen the data myself.
subnet6's Avatar
subnet6 at 06/22/2007 07:44

@Mechamonkey,

I think the point the guy was making, is that you say you are skeptical of any data without seeing it, but you make the assumption that it's LESS than 30%. Why less? If you can't see the data, and you don't trust numbers, then, why not MORE than 30%? Basically, we have no true evidence, other than gobs of people on sites like this, most of which claim they've had failed units, yet you choose to disregard it in the absence of any actual facts. I think we can both agree that there is a problem, but without any facts, we can't HONESTLY assume its any particular percentage, so for you to assume that 30% is not accurate, thats fine, but for you to assume it's lower (without any data proving it), then you sound a bit off if you get my meaning. I'm not saying your are, I'm just saying how it sounds.
MechaMonkey's Avatar
MechaMonkey at 06/22/2007 08:02

Fair enough, subnet, and I thank you for that explanation. You make a valid point, and you're correct, it may very well be higher. I'm assuming lower though based on my own observations of the gaming community. Not really scientific at all, which is mildly hypocritical, I'll admit, but it is a better random sampling than most polling or survey groups get, due to the wide variety of gamers on the internet.
MechaMonkey's Avatar
MechaMonkey at 06/22/2007 08:31

Furthermore, I present the primary rule of business: maximize profits and minimize losses. If Microsoft is putting out a product that fails one third of the time, the cost of repairing/replacing all those consoles would be an enormous loss. Say what you will about the 'Soft, but they haven't become the behemoth they are today by letting large chunks of profit get cut out like that. If all these consoles are getting replaced, then for every 4 consoles they produce, they're only being paid for 3, and the consoles do not have a wide profit margin to begin with. No company, especially not a large, profit-mongering, monopolistic beast like Microsoft would allow that much of their money to simply drift away.

Again, I will reiterate that I do agree there is a problem. Any product with a significant failure rate needs to be looked at and fixed, especially if the replacements themselves are breaking down even more frequently. That's absurd and irresponsible business practice.
dvddesign 's Avatar
dvddesign at 06/22/2007 08:58

I've bought 2 consoles and both have died at least once already.

As long as MS keeps fixing and replacing them without any cost on my part they can make 100% of them out of MASSIVEFAIL.
MIKEisONfire84's Avatar
MIKEisONfire84 at 06/22/2007 09:26

Mine failed and they sent me back a dirty console that wasnt the original that I sent in (like they told me it was going to be).
Chuma's Avatar
Chuma at 06/22/2007 09:43

dvddesign:

I don't think that is even remotely good enough. I don't buy something to last a year and then send it back and wait a few weeks to get a replacement that may just be a refurb. I expect to have something with some degree of a lifespan to it sure, but to last well beyond its warrenty period.

As someone who actively collects consoles and expects them to work a decade later when he wants to dig them out to play again, the Xbox360 is really not even close to a purchase right now. I am however very hopeful they will sort these problems out.
RICHARD BLOCKER's Avatar
RICHARD BLOCKER at 06/22/2007 09:58

I bought mine about 4 months after launch. I've dropped it twice. Once from about 5' and once from about 3'. Aside from an occasional freezeup, it runs tits. I have met some really great players through XBL that I always play with whenever I get on. 90% of my gametime is spent playing FPS's. So you can say that I'm a happy customer. I wouldn't say I'm a fanboy. I never owned an O.G. X-box, and always loved the playstation(1&2). I just cant justiy buying a PS3 yet. I really feel bad for all the people who've shared their horror stories with MS. My friends list is pretty full most of the time, and I regularily converse with 25-30 people(clan shit). I have only heard of two people with problems. I'm not discounting the 30% figure with my own personal expirience, I'm just pointing out how good of an expirience I've had.

I also submitto you that Sterling is a X-box basher.
MechaMonkey's Avatar
MechaMonkey at 06/22/2007 10:27

Sterling is an equal opportunity basher. If someone needs bashing, he'll step up to the plate.

I'm going to amend my previous statements. The 30% rate may be accurate based on the multiple failures of individual consoles, or the failures of dirty replacements. If that's where this number is coming from, I'll believe it. 30% of consoles purchased still sounds a bit far-fetched, but I've found an explanation that I'll accept. Congrats, you've won me over.

If this is the case though, the problem is as much with the hardware but with Microsoft's terrible repair/replacement services. That's where the collective rage should be focused.
BuckF1tches's Avatar
BuckF1tches at 06/22/2007 11:15

Pete, all fanboys suck. There are a few people out there who will think MS never does anything wrong.

I think most everyone will agree to the statement that SuMizzle made: "Good games. Great online. Shit hardware."

And for future reference, calling Microsoft, "M$" and then making fun of MS fanboys: isn't that kinda like the pot calling the kettle black, Mr. Sony? See the first sentence of this comment.
LeeMon's Avatar
LeeMon at 06/22/2007 11:21

"Random EBGames manager: nowhere near 30% of Xbox 360 consoles have been made of FAIL, but we got a lot of release-day returns"

Fixed your grossly inaccurate headline for you.

Here's what you're actually quoting: "According to an EB Games store manager, who wished to remain anonymous... 'We are definitely getting faulty hardware returns of the Xbox 360, but no-where near as much as we used to when it first came out," he said. 'On initial launch, it was close to 30 per cent of our [Xbox 360s] were coming back faulty.'"

Don't mind me, I'm still looking for somewhere I can get gaming news where the writer isn't spending most of an article dancing around their self-constructed burning effigy of the latest object of their mockery, rather than accurately representing what other people are saying.

Yeah, I know, futile effort.
MechaMonkey's Avatar
MechaMonkey at 06/22/2007 11:44

Amendment revoked. I agree that their repair/replacement service sucks and needs to be revamped entirely, but the shenanigans are back in full force on that number. I'm going to have to start reading the source material more. "Fanboy" all you want, but this report is bogus.

1) Stating that 30% of all consoles failed based on an anonymous source citing an anonymous EB Games manager is downright absurd.

2) The article itself states that return rates have dropped.

3) 100 complaint e-mails in almost two years? I'm not impressed.

4) If the original article and this one had focused on the poor repair/replacement service, instead of these failure rates based on no real hard data, then we may have had an well thought out article with a good point to make. Instead, we get sensationalizing about hitting the weak points for "massive failure rates".
Vigor's Avatar
Vigor at 06/22/2007 15:55

I had an elite its just as loud as my friends premium xbox 360. And i got the red ring of death on the second day of having it. I sold it and got a ps3 and its 10 million times quieter.
UltraViolence's Avatar
UltraViolence at 06/22/2007 16:03

Sure it's quieter, that's 'cause you ain't running shit on it.
MIRITE?
cleopatrudo's Avatar
cleopatrudo at 06/22/2007 16:57

I dread for the day when the red reaper comes knocking to my bedroom
Chuma's Avatar
Chuma at 06/22/2007 20:43

MechaMonkey:

to my knowledge, Microsoft have done a pretty damned good job (Sterling work you might say - ahahaha.. god I'm funny) in replacing or repairing the consoles that have gone down with a Red Ring of death.

Now yes there may has been some inroads into the issue and maybe the failure rate is less now than it was, but the fact remains that 4 of the 5 people I know personally (not online) who own an Xbox360 have had it fail. This does not mean I believe 80% of Xbox306s fail, but it DOES mean that there is an unacceptable long term risk of one going down, and I am not paying out money for something that might die on me.

Put it this way, if you knew a car was going to fail on as low as 10% of all sold, would you take the risk of 1 in 10 not being yours?
Expiration's Avatar
Expiration at 06/22/2007 21:26

MechaMonkey's Avatar
MechaMonkey at 06/23/2007 08:28

I agree with you 100%, Chuma.
Xtrm21's Avatar
Xtrm21 at 06/24/2007 01:09

ok...made TO fail i take it?!

Anyways....all this arguing and it's just one article based off no facts or actual numbers. It could be more or less than 30% but to reply to a few comments here: Numerous failures/replacements could be adding to the percentage? Not likely, your talking about 30% of made consoles failing...your just getting refurbs back so that's not gonna inflate the percentage of new consoles failing. As for it being at 30%, read the article! The guy said at initial release it was close to 30%, but he doesn't know nor have facts. And the Sidney retailer said it must be well over 30%...again, he doesn't know nor have facts/numbers.

Mind you, I'm no fanboy or someone who's just a happy go lucky owner who never had a problem with his console. Far from it actually. I've sent my console in 3 times...crashed the day I got it(launch console), replaced it a year later due to red rings and then got a rear usb port replaced the third time. Also had 2 controllers replaced, and man does their customer service suck!! So no, I'm not taking their side I just like to see facts and talk the truth. They definitely have issues with their console and have handled it terribly, but where can we get true numbers on all this!?
Lamfxs's Avatar
Lamfxs at 07/05/2007 07:00

All I know is that Xbox 360 is an awesome console with great games and live internet. But the console itself will not hold all the features it is made for. For example I have heard that Forza is causing overheating problems than other games. This itself just show you that this console have been made for lesser technology capacities. I am not a technical person nor an analyst but just search in Google or go to my favorite tech support site for Xbox 360 Support and you will see all the complaints then you will recognize there is a major problem with this console and 30% just seems right...

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